Only six weeks in the grave, and Hugo Chávez’s socialist dream is fading fast. On Sunday night his hand-picked successor, Nicolás Maduro, won Venezuela’s presidential election, but only by a whisker. 入土才六个星期，乌戈•查韦斯(Hugo Chávez)的社会主义梦想就在快速消逝。周日晚上，他钦点的继任者尼古拉斯•马杜罗(Nicolás Maduro)以十分微弱的优势赢得委内瑞拉总统大选。

Mr Maduro – the self-proclaimed “son of Chávez” – won 50.7 per cent of the ballot, versus 49.1 per cent for Henrique Capriles, the opposition leader, a difference of just 235,000 votes. That compares with an 11-point win for Mr Chavez in October’s presidential election. Mr Capriles has refused to accept the result until it is audited. Mr Maduro has accepted. 自称“查韦斯之子”的马杜罗赢得50.7%的选票，而反对党领导人恩里克・卡普里莱斯(Henrique Capriles)的得票率为49.1%，只差23.5万张选票。这与查韦斯在去年10月总统大选中以11%的优势胜出形成对比。卡普里莱斯要求重新清点选票，否则拒绝接受这一结果。马杜罗已接受点票结果。

Assume that the count stands and there is no evidence of jiggery-pokery. That still represents no kind of mandate for Mr Maduro or the radical socialism he espouses. Venezuela has become a country split in half, apparently irreconcilably. 假设选举计票有效并且没有欺骗的证据，依然不能代表马杜罗或者是他所拥护的激进社会主义得到人民授权。委内瑞拉已经成为一个两派势均力敌且尖锐对立的国家，并且显然是不可调和的。

Such a close result will also undermine Maduro’s standing within the ruling socialist party. The 50-year-old former foreign minister and union leader will struggle to reconcile chavismo’s various factions, many of whom may think they could do a better job. His biggest rival, Diosdado Cabello, runs both congress and the Socialist party, and has powerful allies in the military. He has already said the election results require deep self-criticism, which may be an acknowledgement of the Venezuelan state’s gross inefficiency and corruption – or an early challenge to Mr Maduro. Either way, the country is in a mess whoever comes to govern it. 得票率如此接近也削弱了马杜罗在执政的社会党中的地位。这位50岁的前外交部长和工会领袖将会在“查韦斯主义”(chavismo)各派系之间挣扎，这些派系中的很多人认为自己是更称职的总统人选。他最大的对手迪奥斯达多•卡韦略(Diosdado Cabello)既是国会主席也是社会党主席，并且在军队中有着强大的盟友。他已经表态称，此次选举结果意味着需要进行深刻的自我批评，这或许是承认委内瑞拉政府存在严重的低效率和腐败，也可能是向马杜罗发出的早期挑战。无论实情如何，也无论谁当领导人，这个国家都处于极为糟糕的状态。

For all of its controversy and complexities, much of Venezuela can be boiled down to a three letter word: oil. Over the past decade, propelled by a sixfold increase in oil prices, the country has enjoyed an unprecedented bonanza: almost $1,000bn of revenues. It was this abundance that projected Chávez and his chequebook onto the world stage. It was oil revenues, plus his unique charisma, which also helped to sustain his revolution at home. Any holes in the Bolivarian project were plugged by Chávez’s personality – and topped up with more petrodollars. 尽管存在种种争议和复杂性，委内瑞拉的问题在很大程度上可归结为一个词：石油。过去10年里，随着石油价格上涨六倍，这个国家得到了前所未有的财富：近1万亿美元的财政收入。这种“底气”将查韦斯和他的大手笔推上了世界舞台。石油收入（加上他独特的魅力）也帮助他维持国内的革命。“玻利瓦尔革命”的任何漏洞，都被查韦斯的个性——加上更多的石油收入——堵上。

But Chávez died on March 5, Venezuelan oil output is declining and energy prices are no longer rising. The economy is on the ropes. Chávez might have been able to keep chavismo’s factions together under similar circumstances. But Mr Maduro is untested and without charisma. Nor can he spray petrodollars at Venezuela’s many problems, as Chávez did. The legacy of his 14 years as president is a country with a newly-entitled poor and a new “Boligarch” elite – but not the means to satisfy them. 但查韦斯已在3月5日去世，委内瑞拉石油产量正在下降，能源价格也不再上涨。委内瑞拉经济岌岌可危。在类似的情况下，查韦斯或许能够将不同的派系团结起来。但马杜罗没有经受过考验，也没有魅力。他也无法像查韦斯那样，用大把石油美元来解决委内瑞拉的诸多问题。查韦斯担任总统14年的政治遗产是，委内瑞拉的穷人有了新的权益，同时出现了新的“波利寡头”(boligarch)精英阶层，但没有能够满足这两个人群的机制。

For the opposition – not all of them rich – the chavista dream has been a nightmare. Towards the end of the 10-day electoral campaign, momentum was turning towards them. Mr Maduro’s lead narrowed much faster than most people thought. 对于反对派来说（不是所有人都富有），查韦斯主义之梦一直都是一场噩梦。为期10天的大选竞选接近尾声的时候，势头开始对他们有利。马杜罗领先优势缩小的速度出乎大部分人的料想。

That will spur the opposition and give them hope: Chávez’s death has proved a true game-changer. But it also puts Mr Capriles in a difficult spot. While wanting to press home his advantage, he also cannot appear a sore loser. Mexico’s controversial 2006 presidential election provides a cautionary tale. After a narrow defeat, Andrés Manuel López Obrador refused to recognise the result and organised mass protests and civil disobedience. Ultimately, these proved unpopular and undermined his support. 这将鼓励反对派并给他们带来希望：查韦斯之死已证明是真正改变游戏规则的事件。但这同时也让卡普里莱斯进退两难。在强调他的优势的同时，他也不能让人觉得自己是个输不起的人。墨西哥有争议的2006年总统大选就是一面镜子。在以微弱劣势失败之后，洛佩斯•奥布拉多尔(Andrés Manuel López Obrador)拒绝承认大选结果，并组织大规模抗议和非暴力反抗。最终，这些做法引发普遍反感，反而削弱了人们对他的支持。

Venezuela is now waking to its baleful reality. Caracas has one of the highest homicide rates in the world. Inflation is running at about 30 per cent, the fiscal deficit at about 15 per cent of gross domestic product and the black market exchange rate has spiked to 25 bolivars per dollar, three times the official rate. The anaesthetic of abundant oil revenues is wearing off, and with that the chavista reverie. The current policy of diverting funds needed for oil investment into costly social programmes cannot continue – but neither can it be reversed without risk of social upheaval and political chaos. 委内瑞拉现在开始意识到严峻的现实。加拉加斯是全球自杀率最高的城市之一。通胀率大约为30%，财政赤字大约占国内生产总值(GDP)的15%，黑市汇率已经上升到1美元兑换25玻利瓦尔，是官方汇率的三倍。大量石油收入带来的麻醉作用在逐渐消失，查韦斯幻想也不例外。将石油投资所需的资金转移到成本高昂的社会计划的当前政策不可持续，但在不引发社会动乱和政治动荡风险的情况下逆转这些政策也是不可能的。

Diplomats who know Mr Maduro say he is a pragmatist, someone who could put Venezuela’s economy on a better track. He might, for example, encourage more foreign investment in the oil sector, which would boost government cash flows. Yet his paper-thin margin also means Mr Maduro has to look strong, anti-capitalist and revolutionary to survive. It may prove an impossible balancing act. Having probably won a difficult election, Mr Maduro faces an even more difficult presidency. 了解马杜罗的外交官认为他是一个务实者，一个可以让委内瑞拉经济进入更好轨道的人。比如说，他可能会鼓励更多外国投资进入石油业，从而增强政府现金流。然而，十分微弱的获胜优势意味着马杜罗为了生存，必须摆出坚强、反对资本主义和革命的姿态。这种走钢丝或许是做不到的。在很可能赢得一场艰难的选举后，马杜罗面对一个更加困难的总统任期。