The Japanese bond purchase programme has already had a material effect on financial prices around the world. It will now alter the global investment landscape by changing the nature and size of capital flows. Yet once the initial excitement passes, the real question will become whether it adds to, or subtracts from, the longer-term stability of the global monetary system. 日本债券购买计划已对全球金融市场的价格产生重大影响。它将通过改变资金流动的特点和规模来改变全球投资版图。然而，一旦最初的兴奋退去，真正的问题将变成它会加大还是降低全球货币体系在较长期内的稳定。

The Japanese programme is massive: in absolute terms (some $75bn per month); relative to where bond prices stood (the 10-year Japanese government bond interest rate was already very low); and even compared to the Federal Reserve’s QE3 (which involves monthly purchases of $85bn for an economy with a GDP three times larger than Japan’s). Anchored by a 2 per cent inflation objective, the Japanese programme is also slotted to persist for a long time. 日本的计划规模很大：从绝对数值来看如此——每月750亿美元左右；从债券价格所处水平来看如此——10年期日本政府债券利率已非常低；甚至与美联储(Fed)第三轮量化宽松政策(QE3)相比也是如此——美联储每月购买850亿美元的债券，但美国国内生产总值(GDP)是日本的3倍。日本已确定2%的通胀目标，因此日本的债券购买计划也将持续很长时间。

Realising this, market participants have already adjusted financial prices. The most dramatic move is in the yen, and justifiably so: unlike the US, where domestic components of aggregate demand would be expected to do the heavy lifting, the Japanese programme’s success depends on its ability to capture market share from other countries. 意识到这点的市场参与者已调整了金融价格。变动最剧烈的是日元汇率，这也是合理的：日本与美国不同，美国的国内总需求预计将对经济起到巨大拉动作用，而日本计划的成功取决于从其他国家手中夺取市场份额的能力。

The currency moves have also been turbocharged by the green light given to Japan by other advanced countries. For now, G7 countries are making a distinction between explicit foreign exchange intervention (still frowned on) and this type of approach to weakening a currency. 其他发达国家给予日本的支持也加速了这种汇率变动。目前，七国集团(G7)正将明显汇率干预（仍然不被赞成）与这种汇率贬值的策略区别开来。

Meanwhile, recognising that the economy is in no position to absorb the liquidity injected by the Bank of Japan, markets are also anticipating capital flows out of Japan. The result is a cascading valuation waterfall. It started by benefiting any and all higher-income producing fixed income securities, then pushed higher global equities and other more risk-oriented investment opportunities. 与此同时，市场还意识到，日本经济无力吸收日本央行(Bank of Japan)注入的流动性，因此市场预测资金将流出日本。结果是资产估值的一波波变动。这开始是让所有较高收益的固定收益证券受益，接着是推高全球股市和其他更为风险导向型的投资机会。

All this happened irrespective of the underlying fundamentals. This is what excites global investors in the short run, but makes them more anxious about the longer term. 不管潜在基本面如何，所有这些已经发生。这将在短期内令全球投资者兴奋，但将让他们在较长期内更为担忧。

It excites them because yet another central bank is now actively involved in creating a significant wedge between sluggish fundamentals and higher financial prices. And so investors continue to ride wonderful liquidity waves that divorce valuations from top line revenue growth and profitability. 它让投资者感到兴奋的原因是，又一家央行现在积极致力于在疲弱基本面的基础上，拉高金融价格。因此投资者将继续利用这股美妙的流动性浪潮，这一浪潮会令资产估值与收入增长和利润率脱节。

Yet it makes investors more anxious because they recognise it may all end in tears if real economies do not respond adequately to central bank policies. Here, the risk is that artificially high asset prices would eventually collapse to levels warranted by fundamentals. 然而，它让投资者更为担忧，因为他们意识到，如果实体经济没有对央行政策做出足够回应的话，这一切可能最终以泪收场。其风险在于，被人为拉高的资产价格可能将最终暴跌至基本面因素支持的水平。

The resolution of this anxiety is not in the hands of central banks alone. It also depends on proper responses by other policy makers, on less obstructive politicians, and on the proper engagement of strong corporate balance sheets. In the meantime, we should expect at least two developments that will add to the twin emotions of excitement and anxiety. 化解这一担忧的方法并不单单掌握在央行手中。它还取决于其他政策制定者的合理回应，取决于政客的配合，以及拥有强大资产负债表的企业的适当参与。同时，我们应预见到，至少将有两个因素会加剧投资者的兴奋和担忧。

First, Japan’s programme increases the probability that other central banks will be pushed into adopting more expansionary monetary policies. This is particularly the case for economies directly affected by the sharp depreciation of the yen, such as Korea and members of the eurozone. It is also true of those (such as Brazil and Mexico) that experience surges in capital inflows due to Japan’s actions. 首先，日本的债券购买计划将加大其他央行被迫采取更具扩张性的货币政策的可能性。对于那些受到日元大幅贬值直接影响的经济体尤其如此，例如韩国和欧元区成员国。对于那些由于日本政策的影响、资金流入将大幅增加的国家也是如此，例如巴西和墨西哥。

Second, the programme will add to worries about market malfunction. This speaks to more than increasing episodes of illiquidity and price gapping already evident in the market for Japanese government bonds. It includes growing concerns about the poor information content of prices in today’s global markets, and how the artificial price signalling distorts the allocation of resources and misaligns incentives (across time, and among different market participants). 其次，日本的计划将加剧投资者对市场失灵的担忧。不仅是对流动性不足和价格偏差将日益频繁出现的担忧——它们在日本政府债券市场上已十分明显。投资者的如下担忧也在加深：如今全球市场价格的信息传递能力十分疲弱，人为的价格信号扭曲了资源配置并形成错误的激励，并且是全天候、影响到各类不同市场参与者的。

Such concerns would be tempered if real economies were to respond quickly and properly to central bank actions. But they are not, and for understandable reasons. 如果实体经济对央行举措做出迅速且合理的回应，这些担忧将减轻。但它们没有做出这种回应，其中的原因是可以理解的。

While officials recognise the importance of supporting policies that improve economic responsiveness and longer-term financial viability, these are yet to be put in place. Witness how Congressional dysfunction is paralysing movement on virtually any policy front in the US. And even Japan’s recently announced programme lacks proper specification when it comes to the structural reforms that are essential to increasing nominal GDP in a sustainable fashion. 尽管官员们认识到了支持那些改善实体经济响应性、提高较长期经济生存能力的政策的重要性，但这些政策尚未实施。看看美国国会的运转失灵正如何让几乎所有政策进展陷入瘫痪吧。甚至连日本最近宣布的计划在结构性改革方面也缺乏足够多的细节，而这些改革对于持续提高名义GDP至关重要。

Global investors are right to be excited by Japan’s bond purchase programme. It has already had a material impact. Yet where it can be a real game changer is in how it alters the dynamic of the longer-term switchover from artificial growth to genuine growth. Here, investors are right to be anxious. 全球投资者对于日本债券购买计划感到兴奋是正确的。这已经产生了重大影响。然而，至于它能否真正扭转乾坤，在于它将如何影响一种较长期的转变——从人为增长到真实增长的转变。因此，投资者感到担忧也是对的。