The International Monetary Fund has raised a warning flag about the risks of ultra-loose monetary policy. In its Global Financial Stability Report, the IMF worries that excessive easing may lead banks to postpone the necessary adjustment after the excesses of the past. There is also a risk that cheap money could prop up new bubbles. While policy makers should monitor both threats via prudential regulation, it is not yet time to tighten monetary policy. 国际货币基金组织(IMF)对超宽松货币政策的风险发出警告。在《全球金融稳定报告》(Global Financial Stability Report)中，IMF担心在过度宽松的影响下，过去行为缺乏节制的银行可能推迟必要的调整。另一项风险是，廉价资金可能滋生新泡沫。不过，尽管政策制定者应当通过审慎监管监控这两种威胁，但现在还不是收紧货币政策的时候。

The case for maintaining low interest rates and for continuing to pursue unconventional monetary policy is strengthened by another document released by the IMF this week – its Global Economic Outlook. The fund has downgraded its economic forecast for global growth in 2013, cutting it 0.2 percentage points to 3.3 per cent. In the three-speed world described by Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, developed economies are lagging behind emerging markets. While the US is showing promising signs of buoyancy, the EU and Japan look stuck. 维持低利率、继续推行非传统货币政策的理由，得到了IMF上周另一份文件的支持——《全球经济展望》(Global Economic Outlook)。IMF已将2013年全球经济增长预测下调0.2个百分点，至3.3%。在IMF总裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)所说的“三速”世界中，发达经济体滞后于新兴市场。尽管美国展示出繁荣的光明迹象，但欧盟(EU)和日本似乎停滞不前。

The accusation that should be levelled at central bankers around the world is that they did too little, too late – not too much. True, the Federal Reserve has acted forcefully, unleashing three rounds of quantitative easing and committing to keep monetary policy loose until the recovery is in full swing. But it has taken the Bank of Japan decades to understand that it needed a bazooka, not a water pistol, to fight deflation. Mario Draghi’s vow to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro has reassured markets, but the European Central Bank stubbornly keeps its policy rate at 0.75 per cent. 世界各国央行官员应当受到的批评是他们做得太少、太迟，而不是太多。没错，美联储(Federal Reserve)采取了有力行动，先后实施三轮量化宽松，并承诺保持宽松的货币政策，直到复苏进入正轨。但日本央行(BoJ)花了几十年才明白，对抗通缩需要的是火箭筒，而不是玩具水枪。马里奥•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)誓言“不惜一切代价”拯救欧元固然稳定了市场情绪，但欧洲央行(ECB)固执地将政策利率维持在0.75%。

Tightening monetary policy now would mean choking off the recovery. Critics would have a point if there were signs of accelerating inflation. But the only developed country where prices are creeping up is Britain. Even there, inflation is a moderate 2.8 per cent. A bigger risk, for example in the most troubled parts of the euro area, is deflation. Falling prices would raise real interest rates, acting as a further drag on growth. Policy makers may worry about the risk of asset bubbles. But, at least in the developed world, there are still too few signs that asset prices are overvalued. The recent buoyancy of the equity market can help the recovery, for example via wealth effects. Individuals and institutions are feeling richer and will therefore spend more. Lower rates on high-yield “junk” bonds can also be a good thing. These instruments are a favourite form of financing for many medium-sized companies. If they can borrow cheaply, it is easier to invest. 现在收紧货币政策将意味着扼杀复苏势头。假如现在有通胀加速的迹象，那么批评人士还有点道理。但英国是唯一一个物价缓慢上涨的发达国家，而且即便是在英国，通胀率也只是较低的2.8%。更大的风险（比如在欧元区危机最严重的几个国家）是通缩。物价下跌将提高实际利率，进一步拖累增长。政策制定者也许担心资产泡沫的风险，但至少在发达国家，尚没有多少迹象表明资产价格被高估。股市最近的涨势有望促进复苏，比如通过财富效应，即个人和机构感觉自己更富了，从而增加支出。高收益“垃圾”债券的收益率降低可能也是好事。此类工具是诸多中型企业最青睐的融资方式。如果借款成本降低，投资也会更容易。

The threat policy makers should mainly focus on is complacency. Ultra-loose monetary policy allows financial institutions to delay the necessary post-crisis healing. As the IMF acknowledges, banks in the US have done a much better job than their European counterparts at recognising losses on their balance sheets. They also have stronger capital buffers to withstand future shocks. 政策制定者主要应当关注的威胁是自满。超宽松货币政策会让金融机构推迟必要的危机后康复努力。正如IMF所指出的，在资产负债表上计入亏损方面，美国各银行比它们的欧洲同行做的好得多。美国各银行用于抵御未来冲击的资本缓冲也更强。

European and British banks still have some work to do. Excessive forbearance makes lenders vulnerable. It also prevents them from lending to new businesses, which is vital for the recovery. New rounds of bank recapitalisation can no longer remain a pious aspiration, but must be acted upon. 欧洲大陆和英国各银行仍有一些工作要完成。过度节制令银行变得脆弱，也妨碍它们向新企业放贷，而这对复苏至关重要。新一波银行资本重组再也不能只是虔诚的愿望，而必须付诸实践。

Finally, the eurozone should stop unpicking the good work it has done on banking union, which is crucial to rebuild confidence in its financial system. The agreement over the single supervisor should be complemented by a deal on the single resolution mechanism. As the Cypriot case shows, banking crises remain a real threat. 最后，欧元区在银行业联盟方面的杰出努力对重建人们对该地区金融体系的信心至关重要，不应半途而废。除了同意成立单一监管机构之外，各方还应就单一清盘机制达成协议。塞浦路斯的经历表明，银行业危机仍是切实的威胁。

The IMF is right to warn about the risks facing financial institutions. But policy makers should not jump to the wrong conclusion. Fixing the banks needs prudential plumbing, not bluntly closing the monetary taps. IMF对金融机构面临的风险发出警告是对的。但政策制定者不应仓促得出错误的结论。修复银行需要审慎地修理管道，而不是生硬地关上货币龙头。