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中国领导人警告金融风险

发布者: sunny214 | 发布时间: 2013-4-28 12:30| 查看数: 1071| 评论数: 0|

China must work to strengthen its economy while also guarding against financial risks, the country’s top leaders said in a special meeting convened amid rising concerns about the near-term growth outlook. 中国必须在防范金融风险的同时,增强经济增长动力,这是中国高层领导人在一个特别会议上表示的。目前各方对中国短期增长前景越来越担忧。

The Politburo Standing Committee, the highest decision-making body in China, met to discuss economic policy two weeks after reporting that growth slid to 7.7 per cent in the first quarter, an unexpected decline from its 7.9 per cent pace in the final quarter of 2012. A survey of purchasing managers published by HSBC this week suggested that momentum has remained sluggish in April. 中国最高决策机构——中共中央政治局常务委员会开会讨论经济政策。两周前出炉的数据显示,第一季度中国经济放缓至同比增长7.7%,低于2012年第四季度7.9%的同比增幅。本周汇丰(HSBC)发布的采购经理指数预览值(flash PMI)似乎表明,4月份增长势头仍比较疲弱。

The politburo pledged to bolster domestic consumption and to make it easier for companies to gain approval for investment projects. At the same time, it vowed to standardise the financing mechanism for local governments, addressing concerns about the mountain of debt they have accumulated through backdoor channels. 政治局承诺促进国内消费,并使企业更易于通过投资项目审批。与此同时,它誓言建立规范的地方政府举债融资机制,应对地方政府通过非正式渠道积累大量债务引发的担忧。

The statement underlined the economic dilemma facing China. It was partly a reaction to the disappointment of the first-quarter data in saying the country needed “to strengthen its economic growth momentum”. But it also served as a warning against taking drastic actions to boost growth by cautioning against “potential risks in the financial sector”. 这份声明突显中国面对的经济两难。它在一定程度上是对首季令人失望的经济数据作出反应,称中国“经济增长动力仍需增强”。但它也对采取大刀阔斧的行动以提振增长发出警告,告诫称“金融领域潜在风险需要加强防范”。

“It is difficult to achieve both objectives. From the context, I’m left with the impression that they may tolerate lower growth to emphasise more the quality of growth and reduce financial risk,” said Ding Shuang, an economist with Citi. “要实现两个目标是有难度的。从整篇声明的措辞看,我得到的印象是他们可能容忍较低增长率,以便更加注重增长质量,同时降低金融风险,”花旗(Citi)经济学家丁爽表示。

He noted that Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, China’s new leaders, are only at the start of what is expected to be a 10-year term in office. 他指出,中国新领导人习近平和李克强刚刚进入预期将持续10年的任期。

“They have a long time horizon. The last thing they would like to do is to exhaust all their growth-support tools at the beginning of their tenure only to face problems later,” he said. “他们有较长的时间跨度。他们最不想做的就是刚上任就动用所有支持增长的工具,却在日后面对种种问题,”他表示。

But Xu Gao, chief economist of Everbright Securities, took a very different message from the politburo meeting, saying that the comments about guarding against financial risks were more limited than recent government statements. 但是,光大证券(Everbright Securities)首席经济学家徐高从这次政治局常委会议得出完全不同的解读。他表示,这次会议上有关防范金融风险的言论比近期的政府声明更为有限。

“The meeting has given a very strong message about stabilising growth, going beyond previous policy signals,” he wrote in a note to clients, saying that more active policy moves could fuel a recovery in this quarter. “这个会议发出了稳增长的强烈信号,超出此前的政策信号,”他在发给客户的简报中写道。他表示,更多积极的政策行动有望推动当前季度的复苏。

Mr Xu added that it was highly unusual for the Politburo Standing Committee to meet in April to discuss the Chinese economy, having last done so in 2004. Normally, the standing committee convenes economy-focused meetings at the start, the middle and the end of the year. 徐高补充说,政治局常委在4月份开会讨论中国经济是极不寻常的;上一次这么做是在2004年。正常情况下,政治局常委在年初、年中和年末召开聚焦经济问题的会议。


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