China’s plans for faster urbanization have attracted a lot of attention. With the economy showing slower growth, some observers have been hoping this will eventually take up some of the slack.

中国有关加快推进城镇化的计划已经吸引了许多关注。由于中国经济增长速度出现放缓，一些观察人士一直希望，城镇化最终将对提振中国经济增长起到一些作用。

What the markets are really keen to know is how fast a pace is in the government’s blueprint and how much money will be thrown at urbanization.

市场真正渴望知道的是，中国政府在其制定的城镇化蓝图里，究竟打算以多快的速度推进城镇化，并且准备在城镇化方面投入多少资金。

So far, Beijing isn’t saying. But that hasn’t stopped investors from pouring money into cement and construction stocks on the assumption that more urbanization means more homes and infrastructure for all those new residents of the nation’s cities. Currently, about 53% of China’s population, or more than 711 million people, live in cities.

到目前为止，中国政府并没有透露这方面的信息。但这并未阻止投资者将钱投入水泥和建筑类股，他们认为，城镇化率的提高意味着，需要兴建更多住房和基础设施来满足中国城市新增居民的需要。目前有超过7.11亿中国人居住在城市，约占中国总人口的53%。

While there has been no official estimate of how much urbanization is needed, Premier Li Keqiang, a big supporter of this objective, has said that urbanization could produce dividends in the next round of reform and become a driver of development for the world’s second-largest economy.

虽然中国官方并没有估测中国的城镇化率需要达到多高，但坚定支持中国推进城镇化进程的李克强总理表示，城镇化有可能在中国下一轮改革中创造红利，并成为中国进一步发展的推动力。

Chi Fulin, who heads the China Institute for Reform and Development, a private think tank based in Hainan province, has tried to put a figure on all this.

民间智库中国（海南）改革发展研究院的院长迟福林试图对中国的城镇化率及相关数据做出预测。

If 400 million people are added to the nation’s urban population in the next 10 years and each new urban resident requires 100,000 yuan ($16,130) in fixed-asset investments, total investment demand from urbanization would be at least 40 trillion yuan, according to Mr. Chi’s calculations. That figure excludes additional consumption demand from these new and usually wealthier ─ urban residents, he said.

据迟福林计算，如果中国未来10年内新增加4亿城市居民，而每位新增城市居民需要人民币10万元（合16,130美元）的固定资产投资，那么中国城镇化的总投资需求至少将达人民币40万亿元。他说，这一数字还不包括这些城市新居民新增的消费需求，而这些人进城后的生活通常也要比之前富裕。

But the market’s initial euphoria is starting to fade. Corporate profits have not been particularly strong this year, and urbanization may not help soon enough. At least for now, it remains a notion rather than a reality.

但市场当初因这一估算数据而产生的欢欣感正开始消退。中国今年的企业利润增速一直不很理想，而城镇化对于中国经济可能也是远水不解近渴。至少目前而言，加速推进城镇化依然只是个概念而不是现实。

“We were hoping that urbanization could boost investment and lift steel demand this year, but so far nothing has happened,” a steel trader said. “It looks like we were overoptimistic earlier.”

一位钢铁交易商说，我们曾希望城镇化今年能拉动投资、提振钢铁需求，但到目前为止什么都没发生；看来我们高兴得太早了。

A report by Reuters last week said Mr. Li had rejected an urbanization proposal drafted by the state planning agency. It went on to say that the rejection could result in delays in rolling out the program.

路透社(Reuters)上周的一篇报道说，李克强拒绝批准国家发展和改革委员会起草的一份城镇化建议。这篇报道还说，此事可能导致中国的城镇化计划被推迟实施。

The planning agency the National Development and Reform Commission ─ tried to play down market speculation of problems along the way. The agency, which has been leading the way in the drafting effort, said a medium- to long-term urbanization development plan will emerge this year as planned but provided no further information.

发改委试图对市场所猜测的这一过程中可能出现的问题轻描淡写。在建议起草过程中起牵头作用的发改委说，按计划中长期城镇化发展规划将于今年出台，但没有提供更多信息。

A lengthy statement on key reform objectives for 2013 was posted on the official government website Friday, and urbanization is indeed among them. But that statement was also short of any helpful details on timing or scope of the plan.

上周五，发改委的官方网站上发表了一份长篇声明，列举了2013年深化经济体制改革的重点工作，城镇化确实是其中一项。但这份声明也没有提供有关计划的时间或范围等方面的细节。

The reports have led to heated discussions on the topic on China’s Twitter-like microblog Sina Weibo.

有关这一话题的相关报道在新浪微博引发了热烈讨论。

“Urbanization is good,” said a Weibo user. “Take our village for instance, there is no need for so many people to stay in rural area as agricultural mechanization is much higher now.”

一位用户说：城镇化是好事，我们那一个村没多少人，住的很分散，谁想在哪盖房在哪盖房，浪费了好多地。随着机械化程度越来越高，农村真没必要留那么多人了。

Others who looked warily at already-high urban housing prices were less enthusiastic. One Weibo user said urbanization is like intentionally blowing bubbles that will lead to higher property prices. Another said housing demand is rigid and home prices will naturally climb along with the urbanization process.

而那些谨慎地盯着城市已经很高的房价的人则没有这么乐观。一位新浪微博用户说，城镇化就好比是刻意吹大泡沫，这将导致房地产价格走高。另外一名用户说，住房需求是刚需，住房价格在城镇化的过程中自然而然会涨上去。

Bank of America economist Lu Ting said in a note to clients Friday that in addition to being a private think tank’s estimate and not a hard number from the government, the calculation of 40 trillion yuan over 10 years is not as eye-popping as one might assume.

美国银行(Bank of America)中国经济学家陆挺上周五在一份客户报告中说，10年总投资需求40万亿元不但只是一个民间智库的估计，不是政府的硬数据，而且看起来也没有人们想象的那样惊人。

He said that China’s spending on infrastructure in 2012 was about 7 trillion yuan, and that total investment in infrastructure could reach 115 trillion yuan (in current yuan terms) over the next 10 years. He also said it’s misleading to think of the 40 trillion yuan estimate as incremental government spending, as much of it will be carried out with or without the government’s urbanization plan.

他说，中国2012年在基础设施建设上的支出大约为7万亿元，在未来的10年里，基建总投资可能达到115万亿元（按当期人民币价格计算）。他还说，把40万亿元这个估计值当成增加的政府开支也是会造成误导的，因为不管有没有政府的城镇化规划，很大一部分钱都得花。

For now, market participants will have to wait and hope that the broad outline of an ambitious plan will at some point include a few numbers to crunch.

就目前而言，市场参与者只能等待，并希望一个雄心勃勃的规划的大框架会在某个时点给出一些数据以供解读。