Rationing in Europe. Trafficking probes in the Netherlands and New Zealand. Two-year prison terms for smugglers in Hong Kong. Calls for international aid.

欧洲对奶粉施行定量供应。荷兰和新西兰对奶粉走私展开调查。香港对走私奶粉者处以两年监禁。有人为奶粉供应呼吁国际援助。

China’s voracious demand for foreign-made baby milk has squeezed supplies – and created business opportunities – across the globe, and even inspired an artwork made of milk formula tins from dissident artist Ai Wei Wei.

中国对外国产婴儿奶粉的巨大需求对市场供给造成压力，创造了惠及全球各地的商业机会，甚至给异见人士、艺术家艾未未带来了灵感，启发他用配方奶粉罐制做了一件艺术品。

Demand has soared amid the fallout from China’s scandal over melamine-contaminated milk in 2008, which killed six babies and left hundreds of thousands sick. Since, a series of food safety scandals has left the Chinese mistrustful of domestic produce – especially when it comes to the $12.5bn of formula they feed their offspring.

受2008年爆出的国产奶粉遭三聚氰胺污染的丑闻影响，中国对于外国产奶粉的需求量大增。当时，含有三聚氰胺的奶粉导致6名婴儿死亡，并使成百上千名婴儿患病。此后，一系列食品安全丑闻导致中国民众对于国产食品缺乏信任——特别是在事关下一代健康、市场规模高达125亿美元的婴儿配方奶粉领域。

In a country with 82m children below the age of five, and where only 28 per cent of children under the age of six months are breast-fed, according to the UN, any problems in the supply chain were always going to have far-reaching effects.

来自联合国(UN)的数据显示，中国目前年龄在五岁以下的儿童多达8200万，而出生不足6个月的婴儿只有28%采用母乳喂养。因此，奶粉供应链中的任何问题都将产生大范围的影响。

Euromonitor projects that Chinese demand for formula will double over the next four years to $25bn on the back of reduced breastfeeding and a growing female workforce. By 2017, the data agency forecasts that China, the one-child policy notwithstanding, will account for half of all global sales.

欧睿(Euromonitor)预计，由于母乳喂养比例下降以及女性就业比例上升，未来四年中国对于婴儿配方奶粉的需求规模将增长一倍，达到250亿美元。欧睿预测，虽然中国施行计划生育政策，但到2017年中国在全球配方奶粉销售额中所占比重仍将达到二分之一。

Chinese dairy producers have failed to grab as much of this growth as their international peers. While the Chinese milk formula market grew 25 per cent from 2011 to 2012, sales at Mengniu, China’s biggest dairy company, fell 3.5 per cent. Mengniu, caught up in the initial milk scare, has been restructuring in an attempt to improve its image. Last month it agreed a joint venture with Danone of France, which is already a big operator in China’s market.

中国的奶制品生产商未能像其国际同行那样充分抓住这一增长机遇。虽然中国配方奶粉的市场规模在2011至2012年间增长了25%，同期中国第一大奶制品企业蒙牛(Mengniu)的销售额却下降了3.5%。三聚氰胺事件也牵涉到了蒙牛，此后该公司一直在重组，以期改善企业形象。上月蒙牛与法国食品集团达能(Danone)达成协议，将共同组建一家合资企业。达能目前已是中国奶制品市场上一家重要的经营商。

Some analysts forecast further restructuring, with consolidation of midsized operators such as infant formula specialist Synutra – which has itself been ramping up capacity, most recently with plans for a $118m milk-drying plant in France.

一些分析师预计还会有进一步的重组，专业生产婴儿配方奶粉的圣元(Synutra)等中型厂商将出现整合。圣元自身也在大力提高产能，该公司近期计划斥资1.18亿美元在法国建立一家牛奶烘干工厂。

Bright Food, a state-owned food group, is offering visits to its plant to boost confidence among customers. A spokesman says: “We arranged nearly eight such plant visiting events and we found the result very positive. When the consumers walked in the factory, actually we did not need to talk too much.

中国国有食品集团光明食品(Bright Food)则邀请消费者参观自己的工厂，以期提升消费者对其产品的信心。该公司一位发言人表示：“我们大约安排了8个此类参观工厂的活动，并发现取得了非常积极的效果。当消费者真正走进工厂参观时，我们其实无需多言。”

“They themselves would observe how we collected the milk, did the inspections, packed the milk etc. The trust was rebuilt naturally afterwards.”

“消费者会自行观察我们是如何进行采集牛奶、安全监测以及包装牛奶等步骤的。在此之后他们自然而然地对企业重新建立了信任感。”

Some milk formula producers have tried to get around the tarnished image of domestically produced milk powder by marketing their products as “European-style” formula.

某些配方奶粉生产商还试图通过将自身产品宣传为“欧式”配方，来避开国产奶粉已经污损的市场形象。

Investment companies are also banking on baby milk. Shanghai Pengxin investment group recently bought 16 dairy farms in New Zealand for about NZ$200m (US$160.7m). Milk from the farms will be sold to Fonterra, the New Zealand dairy co-operative which is a big supplier to China.

投资公司也对婴儿奶粉市场寄予了很高期望。上海鹏欣集团(Shanghai Pengxin)近期斥资约2亿新西兰元（合1.607亿美元）在该国收购了16家奶牛场。这些奶牛场生产的牛奶将被出售给新西兰合作农场企业恒天然(Fonterra)。恒天然目前已是中国一大奶制品供应商。

Not all foreign companies have been benefiting from the scramble for supplies. Mead Johnson of the US in its recently released first-quarter results reported no noticeable change in consumption in China and no sign of accelerated underlying growth.

不过并非所有外国企业都从中国的奶粉抢购中获益。美国美赞臣(Mead Johnson)近期发布的一季度业绩显示，其在中国的销售额并未出现显著变化，也没有迹象显示潜在需求正在加速增长。

In contrast, Danone has reported a year-on-year rise of 16.1 per cent in its global baby nutrition division.

相比之下，达能宣布旗下的全球婴儿营养部门实现了高达16.1%的同比增长。

Sancor, Argentina’s biggest dairy exporter, has started selling its infant milk formula in China via local distributors. “China has a marked deficit in these products and represents a huge opportunity . . . Argentine consumption of infant formula is only 1 per cent of that recorded in China. Hence the importance of this market,” Sancor said.

阿根廷第一大奶制品出口商善可(SanCor)，已经开始在中国市场上通过本地分销商销售婴儿配方奶粉。善可表示：“中国这类产品的市场供给明显不足，因而带来了巨大的机遇。阿根廷的婴儿配方奶粉消费规模仅为中国的1%。因此中国市场非常重要。”

Danone in France and Milupa in Germany have both increased European production in an effort to avoid European shortages, as well as to serve the Chinese market. Danone has also been selling its Dutch-made formula online in China through a partnership with Tmall, an online retailer owned by Alibaba.

法国的达能以及德国的美乐宝(Milupa)都扩大了在欧洲的生产规模，以避免欧洲市场出现产品短缺，同时服务于中国市场的需要。达能还与阿里巴巴(Alibaba)旗下的线上零售平台天猫(Tmall)结成了合作伙伴关系，通过互联网在中国销售其产于荷兰的配方奶粉。

While the Chinese government has tried to calm fears about domestic milk formula, it has also lowered its import tariffs on it from 20 per cent in 2012 to 5 per cent this year.

虽然中国政府试图平息消费者对于国产配方奶粉的恐惧心理，从今年开始中国政府还是将奶粉的进口关税从20%下调至5%。

However, Chinese consumers’ efforts to source milk from elsewhere have already created a headache for regulators overseas.

但中国消费者试图从海外采购奶粉的举动已经给外国监管当局造成了困扰。

Formula imports from New Zealand are tariff-free. However, in order to maintain its regulatory system, there are strong fines for smugglers. Under New Zealand law, any infant formula, even a single tin bought at a supermarket, requires an export certificate if it is to be sent out of the country. An individual caught exporting infant formula without a certificate faces a penalty of up to NZ$50,000.

从新西兰进口配方奶粉是免征关税的。但为了维护自身的监管体系，新西兰对于奶粉走私者处以大额罚款。根据新西兰法律，任何婴儿配方奶粉，即使是在超级市场购买的单独一罐奶粉，如果要运往国外的话也需要出口凭证。任何没有凭证而出口婴儿奶粉的个人在被抓获后将面临最高可达5万新西兰元的罚款。

An investigation by the Ministry for Primary Industries, which deals with food safety, and the New Zealand Customs Service estimated in September 2012 that the illegal trade of infant milk formula was worth “in excess of NZ$150m and growing”.

据新西兰第一产业部（Ministry for Primary Industries，简称MPI）以及新西兰海关局(New Zealand Customs Service)于2012年9月联合进行的一项调查估算，“婴儿配方奶粉的非法贸易规模超过1.5亿新西兰元，并且还在增长当中”。MPI负责与食品安全有关的事务。

“MPI discovered that the majority of exporters were complying with the legal requirements and that a number were unintentionally in breach  . . . One exporter is currently being investigated,” said Bill Jolly, chief assurance strategy officer at the MPI.

MPI的首席保障战略官比尔•乔利(Bill Jolly)表示：“MPI发现，绝大多数出口商都遵守了法律规定，也有数家出口商在并非故意的情况下违反了法律……目前有一家出口商正在接受调查。”