One month before their annual August holidays, Europe’s leaders doubtless would like, for the first time in four years, to enjoy the sun without dreading that all hell is about to break loose in the eurozone. Events over the past week offer certain grounds for optimism.

现在距每年8月的假期还有不到一个月的时间，欧洲国家领导人肯定希望能在不用担心欧元区局势会突然失控的情况下享受阳光（如果成真的话，那可是4年来的头一次）。过去一周发生的事件为乐观情绪提供了一些支撑。

After a crisis flared in Portugal last week with the finance minister’s resignation, it took just seven days for the nation’s leaders to bring it under control and calm financial markets. In Greece, which like Portugal survives on international life support, lenders are finding a way to keep the emergency funds to Athens flowing in return for admittedly incomplete reforms.

近日葡萄牙财长辞职引发一场政府危机之后，该国领导人仅用7天时间就控制住了局势并稳定住了金融市场。在希腊（该国像葡萄牙一样，靠国际救济过活），贷款机构正想方设法确保应急资金源源不断地流向希腊政府，尽管换来的只是后者不太彻底的改革。

On a wider front, Croatia’s entry into the EU , the decision to start membership talks with Serbia and the approval of Latvia’s request to join the eurozone illustrated the continuing appeal of European unity. Finally, latest purchasing managers’ indices, which measure the outlook for private companies, were the most buoyant since March 2012. Europe should haul itself out of recession in the second half of this year.

从更大的范围来看，克罗地亚加入欧盟(EU)、欧盟决定与塞尔维亚启动后者的入盟谈判、以及批准拉脱维亚加入欧元区的请求，都展现出了欧洲团结的持续吸引力。最后，最新的采购经理人指数（衡量私营企业前景的指标）处于2012年3月以来的最高水平。欧洲应该会在今年下半年摆脱衰退。

These signs are encouraging but provide no real evidence that the crisis is fading, merely that it is entering a different phase. The next 12 months will throw up political, social and financial market challenges that will once again test Europe’s crisis management skills.

这些迹象虽然鼓舞人心，却并非表明此次危机正在消退的确凿证据，它们只能表明，此次危机正进入另一个阶段。接下来的12个月，将出现若干政治、社会和金融市场挑战，再次考验欧洲的危机管理技能。

First, any recovery will take place amid fragmented credit conditions. Italian, Portuguese and Spanish companies, starved of affordable finance, are at a persistent disadvantage to rivals in Austria and Germany. This makes a mockery of the intended benefits of a single currency and renders it impossible for the private sector to slash mass unemployment in southern Europe.

首先，欧洲不论会出现什么形式的复苏，其背后的大环境都仍是各国信用状况良莠不齐。因此，相对于奥地利和德国的对手企业，亟需成本适中融资的意大利、葡萄牙和西班牙企业持久性地处于劣势。这是对单一货币预期好处的一种嘲讽，同时也使得私营部门无法显著缓解南欧地区的大规模失业。

At the same time, the conceptual framework of Europe’s crisis-fighting – money for sinners in exchange for suffering, self-criticism and promises of virtuous reform – will remain unaltered. In this regard it is not that important whether a centre-right, centre-left or grand coalition government emerges from Germany’s September 22 national election. No mainstream party shows an appetite for rebalancing the eurozone economy by deploying the German current account surplus to offset southern Europe’s economic slump.

另外，欧洲对抗危机的理念框架——向作恶者提供金援，前提是他们得过过苦日子、做做自我批评、承诺推行良性的改革——依然不会改变。在这点上，德国9月22日的大选到底是会产生一个中右翼、中左翼还是一个大联合政府其实并不那么重要。对于利用德国经常账户盈余来化解南欧的经济低迷、从而实现欧元区经济再平衡，没有哪个主流政党显示出了兴趣。

The ideal of unity will come under pressure in European parliament elections in May, which will pave the way for the selection of replacements for José Manuel Barroso as European Commission president and Herman Van Rompuy as president of the European Council, the club of national leaders. Expect a surge in support for populist, anti-establishment and anti-EU parties.

欧洲团结的理想将在明年5月的欧洲议会选举中面临考验。这次选举将为选举产生欧盟委员会(European Commission)主席若泽•曼努埃尔•巴罗佐(José Manuel Barroso)和欧洲理事会（European Council，欧盟各国领导人的俱乐部）主席赫尔曼•范龙佩(Herman Van Rompuy)的接任者铺平道路。预计，民粹主义、反现行体制和反欧盟政党的支持率将大幅上升。

For the foreseeable future it will be a chilly political climate for those who favour ambitious integration initiatives, such as pooling debt or a banking union including common deposit insurance. This was underlined last month in a Dutch statement declaring the era of “ever closer union” in every policy area finished. The fragile sense of common purpose surfaces, too, in the language with which the French government and Mr Barroso have attacked each other in past weeks.

在可预见的未来，那些赞同雄心勃勃的一体化举措（例如推出共同债券或建立包含共同存款保险的银行业联盟）的人士，将在政治上遭遇寒冬。上月，荷兰的一项声明就突显出这一点。该声明宣称，在各个政策领域均打造“更紧密联盟”的时代已经结束。此外，人们从法国政府与巴罗佐过去几周互相抨击的措辞中，也感受到了共同目标的脆弱。

These are more than straws in the wind. A strong spirit of collective endeavour will be required to adopt what is shaping up as a new round of financial support for bailed-out nations. Take the three-year rescue plans for Ireland and Portugal, which will end this December and in June 2014 respectively. Europe’s leaders had hoped to wind them up on time in a display of impeccable crisis management. But Ireland’s struggle to emerge from recession indicates that a smooth return to private capital markets is not guaranteed.

这不仅仅是一些苗头。要敲定正在形成的针对被纾困国的新一轮金援，强大的集体努力精神是不可或缺的。我们以为期3年的爱尔兰和葡萄牙纾困计划（分别于今年12月和2014年6月到期结束）为例。欧洲领导人原本希望按时退出这些计划，以证明欧盟无懈可击的危机管理能力。但爱尔兰很难走出衰退的事实表明，被纾困国顺利回归私人资本市场可并不是板上钉钉的。

As for Portugal, the government crisis exposed the limits of political and public tolerance for austerity. An exit from its bailout is unlikely without more aid because public debt is rising towards 130 per cent of gross domestic product, meaningful economic growth is not in sight and almost a fifth of workers are jobless. Meanwhile, few experts think Greece can avoid another debt restructuring.

至于葡萄牙，该国的政府危机暴露出了政界和公众对紧缩政策的忍耐限度。在不进行更多援助的情况下，退出葡萄牙纾困计划是不太可能的，因为该国公共债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比正升向130%、实质性经济增长仍遥不可及、而且还有近五分之一劳动者失业。与此同时，也几乎没有什么专家认为希腊能避免另一次债务重组。

Since the first Greek rescue of May 2010, political conditions in creditor nations have grown increasingly hostile to assisting debtors. Yet the debtor nations’ patience with hardship is nearing its end. Over this toxic confrontation will rise the final curtain of the eurozone crisis.

2010年5月希腊接受首次纾困以来，债权国的政治环境变得越来越不利于采取行动援助被纾困国。然而，债务国对于苦难的忍受力正接近极限。欧元区危机的最后一幕，将在这种有害的对峙中开启。