Some people can move markets with a word. Vladislav Baumgertner, chief executive of potash producer Uralkali, caused upheaval in the world of fertilisers yesterday with his announcement that his company would quit the marketing cartel in which it participates. The move sent the share prices of potash producers tumbling. PotashCorp, K+S and Mosaic all fell about 20 per cent.

有些人只用说一句话，就能改变市场走势。钾肥生产商Uralkali首席执行官弗拉季斯拉夫·鲍姆加特纳(Vladislav Baumgertner)昨日宣布，Uralkali将退出原本所属的那个销售联盟(cartel)。此举引起化肥板块动荡，令多家钾肥生产商股价狂跌。加拿大钾肥(Potashcorp)、K+S和Mosaic股价均下跌20%左右。

Uralkali intends to market potash on its own and focus on expanding volumes. That is dreadful news for an industry that has traditionally managed prices by tightly controlling supply. Uralkali left the BPC export association having complained that it was in “deadlock”, blaming Belaruskali, another participant, for making deliveries outside their joint venture. By marketing potash directly, Mr Baumgertner said prices could fall from $400/tonne to below $300/tonne. A few years ago prices neared $900/tonne.

Uralkali打算自行销售钾肥，并着力扩大产量。对一个一贯通过严格控制供应量操纵价格的行业而言，这是一个可怕的消息。Uralkali退出BPC出口联盟，声称该联盟已处“僵化”状态，兵表示另一参与者Belaruskali也已绕开联盟，自行发货。鲍姆加特纳称，通过直接销售钾肥，钾肥价格可能由目前的每吨400美元降至每吨300美元以下。几年前钾肥价格曾逼近每吨900美元。

This is despite the fact that long-term demand remains intact. While some potash markets have softened this year, the global market is expected to expand about 5 per cent to 56m tonnes. And it should grow further as demand for meat in Asia drives the need for grain and fertiliser. Canada and eastern Europe, including Russia, are the biggest producers of potash, but Asia is the biggest consumer, accounting for about half of global demand.

而市场对钾肥的长期需求预计仍将维持不变。尽管部分钾肥市场今年出现疲软，但全球需求预计仍将增长约5%，达到5600万吨。而随着亚洲肉类需求推高谷物和化肥需求，钾肥市场应该会进一步增长。加拿大和东欧（包括俄罗斯）是最大的钾肥产地，但亚洲是最大的消费地，占全球需求的约一半。

If the industry shifts its focus to volumes, the highest-cost producers will suffer most. K+S, which produces potash in Germany at a cash cost of about $265/tonne, saw a 25 per cent drop in shares yesterday. Uralkali’s shares suffered too but it has more room to manoeuvre with cash costs below $100/tonne.

如果该行业将注意力转向产量，那么成本最高的生产商将是日子最不好过的。每吨钾肥生产成本约265美元的德国钾肥生产商K+S，股价昨日下跌25%。Uralkali股价也有所下跌，但它的回旋空间更大，因为其钾肥生产成本每吨不到100美元。

Cartels are anti-market. They work until a member defects. The end of the BPC cartel, if that is indeed what Mr Baumgertner’s move means, will signal the end of easy potash profits.

销售联盟是反市场的。一旦有成员脱离，卡特尔就可能失灵。BPC卡特尔瓦解（如果鲍姆加特纳此举的含义确实如此），预示钾肥企业能够轻松赚取高额利润的日子即将到头。