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新兴经济体面临加息压力

发布者: sunny214 | 发布时间: 2013-8-22 09:00| 查看数: 682| 评论数: 0|

Turkey’s central bank unexpectedly raised rates to buttress its wilting currency as policy makers across the developing world scrambled to stem the turmoil rattling emerging markets.

土耳其央行为了支撑萎靡不振的本国货币汇率走势,出人意料地上调了利率。目前发展中国家的政策制定者们正忙于采取行动,平息撼动各新兴市场的动荡。

The interest rate rise helped the Turkish lira to rally against the US dollar, but elsewhere in emerging markets the turmoil continued unabated. The FTSE Emerging Markets index shed a further 1 per cent to fall to its lowest level in a month, and borrowing costs rose higher across the developing world.

利率上调推动土耳其里拉相对于美元升值,但在其他新兴市场国家,市场动荡仍在继续,势头未减。富时新兴市场指数(FTSE Emerging markets index)进一步下跌1%,至1个月以来的最低水平,而发展中国家的借款成本普遍上升。

The fresh uncertainty came as figures showed how waning investor appetite for emerging markets has caused debt issuance to collapse over the summer. Companies and governments in emerging markets have issued $42.4bn worth of debt since the beginning of June, compared to $95.1bn over the whole of June, July and August last year, according to Dealogic data. June was the slowest month for emerging market bond sales since December 2008.

这种新的不确定性产生的背景是,数据表明投资者对于新兴市场的兴趣消退,导致今夏债券发行活动崩溃。Dealogic的数据显示,新兴市场的企业和政府自今年6月初以来共发行了价值424亿美元的债券,而去年6至8月的累计债券发行额高达951亿美元。今年6月是自2008年12月以来,新兴市场债券销售最为缓慢的一个月。

Investors say countries with big current account deficits are particularly vulnerable to the end of US quantitative easing, but caution that every country will feel the heat.

投资者们表示,美国退出量化宽松,将对运行巨大经常账户赤字的国家造成尤为显著的影响,但他们也告诫称,所有国家都将感受到压力。

“Higher US rates upset the entire EM apple cart,” said Bhanu Baweja, an analyst at UBS. “If rates continue to go higher, and I think they can, then these markets will suffer even more harm.”

瑞银(UBS)分析师巴努•巴韦贾(Bhanu Baweja)表示:“美国利率上升将扰乱整个新兴市场的经济走势。如果利率水平进一步上升——我认为这种情况是可能出现的——那么这些市场将受到更多的伤害。”

India’s rupee clawed back some of its losses – after hitting a record low on Monday – but other currencies came under pressure from investors. Indonesia’s rupiah tumbled 1.7 per cent to a four-year low, and Russia’s rouble fell to a four-year low against the central bank’s euro-dollar basket.

周一跌至历史低点的印度卢比收复部分失地,但其他货币面临投资者的抛盘压力。印尼卢比跌至四年来的低点,跌幅达到1.7%;俄罗斯卢布兑该国央行由欧元和美元组成的货币篮子的汇率也跌至四年低点。

So far most developing countries have sought to stem the currency declines though market interventions, burning through foreign currency reserves. But fund managers said more countries will have to raise rates to defend their currencies – despite the negative impact on economic growth.

到目前为止,绝大多数发展中国家试图通过市场干预的方式阻止本国货币汇率下跌,为此耗用了大量外汇储备。但基金经理们指出,越来越多的国家将需要通过提升利率来捍卫本币——尽管此举将对经济增长带来负面影响。

“Some central banks will have to hike,” said Andrew Keirle of T Rowe Price, a large US money manager.

美国大型资产管理公司普信集团(T Rowe Price)的安德鲁•凯瑞(Andrew Keirle)表示:“部分国家的央行将不得不加息。”

“A number of markets are clearly indicating that monetary conditions need to be tighter and more orthodox to support their currency and suspend the outflows,” he said.

“多个市场的形势明确表明,货币条件需要收紧和更为正统,以支撑这些国家的货币,并阻止资金外流。”

Brazil’s central bank president, Alexandre Tombini, on Monday night issued a rare statement saying the market was pricing in too many rate increases, but is still expected to tighten policy this year and continue to intervene in the currency market.

巴西央行行长亚历山大•通比尼(Alexandre Tombini)周一晚间罕见发表一份声明,称市场计入了过多的加息。但是,预计巴西央行仍将在今年年内收紧货币政策,并将继续干预外汇市场。

Even the stronger developing countries are suffering from muddled growth rates. Mexico’s economy unexpectedly shrank in the second quarter, according to data released yesterday.

即使经济实力较强的发展中国家也出现了增长疲软的问题。昨日公布的数据显示,今年第二季度墨西哥经济意外收缩。


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