The world is expecting the US Federal Reserve to start tapering its quantitative easing programme soon. This has increased market volatility. And, as in past episodes of Fed tightening, emerging markets are at the centre of the turmoil. But this time the adjustments taking place are the product of imbalances that originated in the developed world. 世界预期美联储(Fed)很快将逐步退出量化宽松计划。这一预期加大了市场的动荡。此外，正如以往美联储收紧货币政策时发生的情况一样，新兴市场目前正处于动荡的中心。但是，这次发生的调整是由起源于发达世界的种种不平衡造成的。

Since 2010, advanced economies’ unconventional monetary policies have fuelled unprecedented capital flows into emerging markets, reaching $1tn a year. This generated unsustainable credit growth, raised asset prices and worsened several recipient countries’ vulnerability. 2010年以来，发达经济体的非常规货币政策导致流入新兴市场的资金规模达到史无前例的水平——每年高达1万亿美元。这催生了不可持续的信贷增长，推升了资产价格，加剧了多个资金流入国的脆弱性。

When the Fed signalled the forthcoming end of QE, emerging markets became the focus of financial distress. This creates a challenge for them – and policy makers must go beyond temporary measures to defend currencies and stem capital outflows. Exposed countries must move fast to recover their balance, to reassure markets of their long-term stability and to accelerate structural reforms to increase productivity growth. 当美联储暗示即将结束量化宽松时，新兴市场便沦为金融“重灾区”。这一暗示为它们带来了挑战，政策制定者要想捍卫本币汇率和阻止资本外流，仅依靠临时性措施肯定是不行的。相关国家必须采取行动恢复平衡，打消市场对其长期稳定性的疑虑，加快结构改革以提高生产率增长。

The Fed has not helped: its lack of clarity on tapering caused the Indian and Indonesian currencies and stock markets to sink. But clarity alone will not reverse the process that is under way. This is the start of a renormalisation in global interest rates, and countries with the greatest external imbalances feel the greatest pressure. Since April Indonesia has lost about 14 per cent of its foreign exchange reserves; India, nearly 5.5 per cent. If this stress persists, it is not difficult to envision a full-blown balance of payments crisis. The same holds true for Turkey, Ukraine and South Africa, among others. 美联储没能带来什么帮助：它在逐步退出量化宽松的问题上含糊其辞，这导致印度和印尼两国的货币和股市出现暴跌。但是，单靠美联储作出明确表态，并不会逆转已经启动的这个进程。这是全球利率恢复正常化的开始，外部不平衡最严重的国家感受到的压力最大。今年4月以来，印尼外汇储备减少了约14%；印度减少了约5.5%。如果这种压力持续下去，不难想象会演变成一场全面的国际收支危机。土耳其、乌克兰和南非等国的情况同样如此。

In this scenario, the international community’s failure to put in place safeguards against financial dislocation risks derailing the global recovery. Fed officials invoke the domestic character of their mandate, but emerging markets are more and more important for global growth. It is increasingly odd that feedback effects on the US economy are taboo. 在这种背景下，国际社会却未能出台防御措施来抵御金融动荡，这有可能导致全球经济复苏脱轨。美联储官员就此进行了辩解，称自己只对国内负责。但新兴市场对全球增长变得越来越重要。现在越来越奇怪的是，有关人士忌讳谈论复苏脱轨对美国经济产生的反馈效应。

Special responsibility, then, falls to the International Monetary Fund – the only multilateral organisation with the mandate and strength to mitigate the effects of large central banks’ unconventional policies. During the 2007-09 crisis, liquidity backstops through the IMF and the Fed prevented further economic deterioration. But the IMF has been slow to act here and even recommended both continued monetary stimulus and reduced global financial risk. The speech at last month’s annual gathering of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, by Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF – arguing that the world must build “further lines of defence” against a possible emerging markets crisis, but that the IMF was prepared to offer financial support – was an important first step. However, without follow-through it will prove inconsequential. 于是，这项特别的责任就落在国际货币基金组织(IMF)肩上——它是唯一一家有权力、有实力缓解大型央行非常规政策影响的多边组织。2007-09年金融危机期间，IMF和美联储提供的流动性支持阻止了经济的进一步恶化。但这次IMF却没有及时采取行动，甚至还建议继续实施货币刺激、同时降低全球金融风险。IMF总裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)上月在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)央行行长年会上发表的讲话迈出了重要的第一步（她主张世界必须建立“更多的防线”抵御可能爆发的新兴市场危机，但没有表示IMF准备提供金融支持）。然而，如果没有后续行动，事实将证明她的这番讲话并无多大意义。

QE was the right policy to see off the 2008 financial crisis and ensure a lack of liquidity did not push solvent economic agents into bankruptcy, inducing downward production spirals. But maintaining an active monetary policy once the zero lower bound in interest rates had been reached meant entering uncharted waters. Fed purchases in long-term bond markets ended up bigger than expected, amid private sector deleveraging, synchronous restrictive fiscal policies and liquidity leaking into emerging markets’ financial markets. 量化宽松是战胜2008年金融危机、确保流动性匮乏不致推动具备偿付能力的经济主体走向破产（进而导致产出呈现螺旋式下滑）的唯一正确政策选项。但在利率降至零这一下限后维持积极的货币政策，则意味着驶入未知水域。随着私人部门去杠杆化、各国不约而同地实施紧缩性财政政策以及流动性“泄露”至新兴经济体的金融市场，美联储在长期债券市场的购买规模最终超出了预期。

For liquidity provision to be sufficient, it had to be excessive. To enable an escape from depression in developed economies, it was almost inevitable bubbles would emerge, especially in emerging markets. The effectiveness of “forward guidance” has been overstated as a tool to manage the exit from QE. And, no matter how gradual the tapering of QE, abrupt adjustments will occur. 要想供应足够的流动性，流动性就必须过剩。要想让发达经济体有能力摆脱萧条，出现泡沫就几乎是不可避免的，尤其是在新兴市场。“前瞻性指引”作为量化宽松退出管理工具的效力被夸大了。而且，不管美联储退出量化宽松的过程有多么循序渐进，突然的调整都是避免不了的。

It is in the nature of financial markets to overreact and overshoot. 反应过度和波动过头是金融市场的天性。

Methods used to bring about an escape from a potential depression built in a bumpy recovery. As always, a central bank’s communication strategy is important, and may mitigate volatility, but should not by itself be considered a crucial policy tool. Second-guessing market participants is bound to be an awkward, self-defeating undertaking for a central bank. Better to have an economics PhD running the Fed than a spin-doctor. 以往曾有一些办法来避免坎坷复苏过程中蕴含的潜在萧条。和往常一样，央行的沟通策略很重要，它或可缓解市场的动荡，但它本身不应被视为一项关键的政策工具。对央行来说，预测市场参与者意图的做法注定会弄巧成拙、尴尬收场。最好是让一名经济学博士、而非一名“政治化妆师”(spin doctor)来执掌美联储。