Rising incomes and a growing taste for meat are changing China’s appetite for corn imports, with potentially profound effects on global food markets.

收入水平的提高和对肉类需求的上升正在改变中国对进口玉米的兴趣，这可能对全球食品市场产生深远影响。

Under Beijing’s policy of “self-sufficiency”, corn imports, along with rice and wheat, have been kept to a minimum since China lowered its import barriers in 2001. The soyabean market, in contrast, was opened up to imports to release land for the key staples, and China has become the world’s largest importer of the oilseed.

根据中国政府的“自给自足”政策，自2001年降低进口壁垒以来，中国对玉米、大米和小麦的进口一直保持在最低水平。与此形成反差的是，为了给关键主食的种植腾出土地，大豆市场对进口开放，同时中国还是世界上最大的油菜籽进口国。

But the world’s corn traders are feeling more upbeat as growing demand for livestock feed has brought a steady rise in corn imports.

但全球的玉米交易商正趋向乐观，原因是对牲畜饲料需求的增加，已导致中国的玉米进口稳步上升。

In the long term, “China, currently representing over 75 per cent of global seaborne trade in soyabeans, will also become a major importer of corn,” says Chris Mahoney, head of agriculture at Glencore Xstrata.

嘉能可斯特拉塔(Glencore Xstrata)农业主管克里斯•马奥尼(Chris Mahoney)称，从长期看，“目前占全球大豆海运贸易逾75%的中国，还将成为玉米的主要进口国”。

A change in tone from Beijing is supportive of this view. Last year, Chinese agriculture minister Han Changfu wrote in an article that China would not allow itself to become dependent on foreign supplies and corn “should not become the second soyabean”. More recently, Mr Han said corn imports would have to rise gradually in order to meet feed demand.

中国政府改变口气也给这种观点提供依据。去年，中国农业部部长韩长赋撰文称，中国不会允许自身对外国进口产生依赖，玉米“不应变成第二个大豆”。后来，韩长赋表示玉米进口必须逐渐增加，以满足需求。

Although the 95 per cent threshold for self-sufficiency has not changed, “the rising volume of grain and soyabean imports has stimulated a lot of discussion this year among Chinese officials and analysts about how to rethink the concept of self-sufficiency,” says Fred Gale, senior economist at the US Department of Agriculture.

美国农业部高级经济师弗雷德•盖尔(Fred Gale)表示，尽管95%自给率的指标仍然未变，但“谷物和大豆进口的不断增加，今年引发了中国官员和分析人士的热议，促使他们反思自给自足的概念”。

Xu Xiaoqing, the head of the rural department at the State Council’s Development and Research Centre, a government think tank, last week told a conference in Beijing that China could import 20m-30m tonnes of corn a year to cover growing supply shortages.

官方智库——国务院发展研究中心农村经济研究部部长徐小青上周在北京的一次会议上表示，为填补与日俱增的供应短缺，中国可能每年需进口2000万至3000万吨的玉米。

“Our corn needs are up, which means in the future we will see some imports but not to the same extent as soya,” Mr Xu told the Financial Times.

徐小青向英国《金融时报》表示：“我们对玉米的需求上涨，这表明在未来，我们将进口一些玉米，但规模不及大豆。”

China’s corn imports are projected to more than double from 3m tonnes in the 2012-13 crop year to 7m tonnes in 2013-14, according to the USDA. By 2022, the country is forecast to become the leading corn importer, buying 19.6m tonnes from world markets.

美国农业部预计，中国的玉米进口量将从2012-13农事年的300万吨，增至2013-14农事年的700万吨，增幅超过一倍。到2022年，中国预计将成为世界最大的玉米进口国，进口量将达到1960万吨。