Although China's leaders are trumpeting their commitment to overhauls, there are signs a recent turnaround in the Chinese economy relies on old-style borrow-and-build policies, raising doubts about how long the rebound can be sustained.

虽然中国领导人目前正在鼓吹他们的改革承诺，但有迹象表明，中国经济最近好转依赖的是以前那种“借贷加建造”的政策，外界不禁质疑这种反弹能持续多久。

Over the past two months, China's economy has picked up steam: Industrial output, electricity production and exports are all registering solid gains, which has buoyed global markets and eased fears that China would join other emerging economies reeling in anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve's tapering of its bond-buying stimulus. Beijing says the fact that much of the improvement occurred without major stimulus measures marks a big policy change.

过去两个月，中国经济有所加速，工业产值、发电量和出口全都大幅增长。这不仅提振了全球市场，考虑到美联储(U.S. Federal Reserve)缩减购债计划的预期，也缓解了中国将加入其它增速迟缓的新兴经济体行列的担心。北京说，很多改善都是在没有出台大规模刺激措施的情况下出现的，这是一个重要的政策变化。

'When the economy is slowing, using a short-term stimulus to boost growth is one method, but we think that doesn't help solve deep-seated problems,' said Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Dalian on Wednesday. 'So we chose a strategy that is good for today, and has long-term benefits, maintaining stability of macroeconomic policy.'

中国国务院总理李克强周三在大连举行的世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)上说：经济下行时，用短期刺激政策把经济增速推高，不失为一种办法，但是权衡利弊，我们认为这样无助于深层次问题的解决，因而选择了既利当前、更惠长远的策略，保持宏观政策的稳定。

But some economists and business leaders say it appears China is pulling the same credit and investment levers it has used to produce growth in the past--even though a mismatch between soaring credit and lackluster growth shows that approach is producing less than in the past. They fear the current growth spurt might peter out after a quarter or two, and make longer-term problems more difficult to solve.

但一些经济学家和商业领袖说，似乎中国正在使用与以往相同的刺激增长的方式，即信贷和投资拉动，尽管信贷飙升和增长乏力的“错位”表明，这种办法不像以前那么奏效。他们担心，眼下的经济急剧增长可能在一两个季度后逐渐消退，并且产生更难以解决的长期问题。

'As long as the credit boom is still under way, the day of reckoning still is likely to be delayed,' said Charlene Chu, an analyst at Fitch Ratings.

惠誉国际评级(Fitch Ratings)的分析师朱夏莲(Charlene Chu)说，只要仍存在信贷繁荣，那么最后审判日可能就会往后推迟。

Emblematic of China's penchant for overbuilding, when Premier Li told business executives in Dalian that the government would steer clear of stimulus and overhauls were starting to pay dividends, he did so in a brand new conference center that replaced another state-of-the art venue used just two years ago.

有一个细节象征着中国对大兴土木的强烈偏好，当李克强在大连对企业高管说，中国政府将避免使用刺激措施以及改革红利开始显现的时候，他是在一个全新会议中心这么说的。仅仅两年时间，这个中心就取代了另一个现代化会议场所。

Massive spending on prestige projects--like new centers to host international conferences--buoys short-term growth, but does little to support China's long-term prospects, economists say.

经济学家说，在大项目（如新建国际会议中心等）上的庞大支出会提振短期经济增长，但对中国长期经济前景几乎起不到支撑作用。

In recent months, it appeared China meant business in reining in a persistent credit boom: A liquidity crunch in June reached levels that alarmed global investors, with short-term interest rates pushing close to 30% as the central bank sought to choke off excess lending. Despite that, through the year's first half, lending levels are markedly higher than last year.

近几个月，中国似乎真的在控制已经持续了很久的信贷繁荣。今年6月的“钱荒”程度之甚让全球投资者都感到惊慌，短期利率逼近30%，原因是中国央行试图遏制过度放贷。尽管如此，今年上半年中国的放贷规模仍远高于去年。

That lending is now filtering through to help produce some of the recent signs of a pickup in the economy.

那些贷款目前正在“渗透”过程中。受其影响，才有了一些近期表明中国经济上扬的迹象。

Ms. Chu, the Fitch analyst, said the recent gains are powered by a roughly 20% increase in lending over the past year, often through so-called shadow financing institutions, which funnel funds to local government projects and real-estate developments that regulators think are too risky for China's commercial banks.

惠誉分析师朱夏莲说，最近中国经济的增长是由过去一年放贷规模增长约20%所推动的。中国的放贷常常是通过所谓的影子金融机构，这些机构将资金传送到监管机构认为对中国商业银行来说风险过高的地方政府项目和房地产开发项目。

'Anyone who thinks China is on the verge of working through its credit problems is mistaken,' she said on Thursday.

她周四说，任何认为中国即将解决掉信贷问题的人都想错了。

China's total lending has risen close to 200% of gross domestic product this year, up from around 125% in 2008.

今年，中国总放贷规模增至接近国内生产总值(GDP) 200%的水平，高于2008年的约125%。

Fast growth in borrowing in some other nations, including the U.S., Japan and South Korea, resulted in financial disaster or many years of slow growth as business and households worked off their debts. Most economists figure that China has the financial wherewithal to avoid a crash, but a slowdown in lending--unlikely to come until after an important Communist Party enclave in November--could still result in sharply lower growth.

过去，在美国、日本和韩国等其他一些国家，随着企业和家庭努力偿还债务，借款的迅速增长曾导致金融灾难或多年经济增长缓慢。大部分经济学家认为，中国拥有避免崩溃所需的财力，但放贷的放缓――11月中共一个重要会议召开之前不太可能出现放贷放缓――可能仍会导致经济增长大幅放缓。

One motivation for Chinese leaders to draw a line under falling growth could be a conviction that a buoyant economy creates a better atmosphere for pushing through potentially painful shifts in policy.

中国领导人遏制经济增速不断下滑的一个动力可能是这样一种信念：充满活力的经济可以为推动实现可能痛苦的政策转变创造更好的环境。

However, economists such as Nomura's Zhiwei Zhang say the opposite can also be argued: Steadier growth might sap leaders' sense of urgency. That is because it can be easier to confront vested interests in times of economic strain, when leaders can argue there is no alternative to change. Former Premier Zhu Rongji used the slowdown that accompanied the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s to press for the sweeping changes China needed to make to join the World Trade Organization.

不过，野村的张智威等经济学家说，也可能出现相反的结果：更加稳定的经济增长可能减轻领导人的紧迫感。这是因为在经济紧张时期更容易对抗既得利益集团，因为这时领导人可以说除改变之外别无选择。前国务院总理朱镕基曾利用上世纪90年代末的亚洲金融危机造成的中国经济放缓，推进中国为加入世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization)所需的全面改革。

'More pressure on the economic side would lead to a higher likelihood of tough social reforms,' said Mr. Zhang.

张智威说，经济方面面临的压力更大，社会改革的难度就可能更高。

There are, to be sure, those who see a real change in Chinese policy. Zhu Min, a former top Chinese official who is now a deputy managing director at the International Monetary Fund, applauded Premier Li's reassurances that stimulus policies won't be used.

诚然，也有人认为中国政策正在发生真正的改变。前中国高层官员、现任国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)副总裁的朱民就曾赞扬李克强做出的不会使用刺激政策的保证。

'He's not going to do stimulus policies, which I think is very good,' he said. 'They aren't going to do massive infrastructure or other things, but they will do investment in new areas, for example, IT and energy efficiencies.'

他说，他不会采取刺激政策，我认为这很好。他们不会建设大规模基础设施或其他项目，但他们将投资新的领域，比如IT和能源效率。

A number of businesses say they aren't counting on a lasting pickup in growth in China. Edward Y.M. Zhu, chief executive of a Shanghai-based logistics company called Chic Group Global Co., says China relies too frequently on subsidies aimed at boosting infrastructure for short-term gains. 'Those subsidies don't last long,' he said. 'What does are the demands of consumers, so you have to think about the ultimate demand of customers.'

一些企业说，他们预计中国经济增速的回升不会持续。上海物流公司熙可集团(Chic Group Global Co.)首席执行长朱演铭(Edward Y.M. Zhu)说，中国太经常依赖旨在促进基础设施建设的补贴来实现短期收益。他说，这些补贴不会持久。能持久的是消费需求，因此必须想到客户的最终需求。

Slightly higher retail-sales growth in August hasn't boosted businesses' confidence in a shift toward household spending.

8月份零售额的小幅增长没有提升企业对于经济增长推动力朝着家庭支出转变的信心。

'Overall, our take-away is still slowdown,' said Han Weiwen, a partner at the Shanghai division of consultancy Bain & Co. He said drivers of consumption, such as growth in disposable income, have weakened from previous years. Growth in urban household income slowed to 6.5% year-over-year in the first half of 2013, down from 9.7% in the same period in 2012.

咨询公司贝恩(Bain & Co.)上海办事处合伙人韩微文说，我们的总体感觉是中国经济仍在放缓。他说，可支配收入增长等消费推动因素较往年有所疲软。城镇家庭收入增长2013年上半年放缓至6.5%，低于2012年同期的9.7%。

Government officials argue that they have made some important changes.

中国政府官员坚称，他们做出了一些重要改变。

In July, the central bank removed a control on bank lending rates, a move that supported growth by lowering borrowing costs for some firms as well as allowing the market to play a greater role. In Dalian, Mr. Li reiterated plans for allowing free flows of investment in and out of the country and allowing banks to set deposit rates without government interference--moves that could boost growth by making investment more efficient and raising income for household savers.

今年7月，中国央行取消了对银行贷款利率的控制。此举降低了一些企业的借贷成本，并允许市场发挥更大作用，从而对经济增长形成支持。李克强在大连重申了有关允许投资自由进出中国和允许银行在无政府干预情况下设定存款利率的计划。这些举措或许可以让投资变得更为有效，增加家庭储户的收入，从而刺激经济增长。

But it is hard to see many signs in the latest growth uptick that a shift in the economic model is gaining traction.

但在最近的经济增长中，难以看到很多表明经济模式的转变获得动力的迹象。

Instead, Nomura notes that the largest monthly gains in August industrial production came from heavy industries, including steel, iron and coke--sectors already marked by overcapacity.

野村(Nomura)指出，中国工业产值之所以在8月份出现最高月度增幅，是拜重工业所赐，包括钢铁、铁矿石和焦炭，而这些产业的产能已经过剩。

Infrastructure investment is also booming back as local governments move to support growth. Through August, spending on highways is up 23.8%, compared with the year-earlier period.

随着地方政府采取行动支持增长，基础设施投资再次迅速增加。截至今年8月底，高速公路支出相比去年同期增加了23.8%。

Ms. Chu said the rising debt-to-GDP levels are themselves an indication that much of the lending is used to roll over loans to existing projects rather than financing new ones, which could have a stronger impact on growth.

朱夏莲说，债务占GDP比重不断上升，这本身就表明很多贷款用于现有项目的贷款展期，而不是为新项目提供融资。上马新项目可能会对增长产生更有力的影响。

Smaller companies with higher growth potential routinely complain that they can't get financing because much of the new lending goes to continue to finance megaprojects.

增长潜力较大的小公司总抱怨无法获得融资，因为很多新贷款继续为大项目提供资金支持。

China's leaders made clear during June and July that they sought 'stability' after China's GDP had slowed for two consecutive quarters.

在中国GDP增长连续两个季度减速后，中国领导人今年6月和7月明确表示，他们寻求“稳定”。

For the year's first half, China grew at a 7.6% rate and was in danger of missing the government's annual target, 7.5% this year, for the first time since 1998, which would be a major embarrassment for China's new leadership.

今年上半年，中国的经济增速为7.6%，有可能出现自1998年以来首次无法实现政府设定的全年增长目标（今年为7.5%）的情况，这会让中国新任领导班子显得十分难堪。

The June squeeze on borrowing costs triggered a sharp slowdown in lending. But that reversed again in August as total social financing, China's broadest gauge of lending, surged to 1.57 trillion yuan ($256.6 billion) from 808 billion yuan in July, suggesting that China again was using credit to boost growth.

6月份紧缩借贷成本的努力引发放贷规模大幅收缩。但8月份，收缩趋势再次逆转，衡量中国放贷情况的最广泛指标社会融资总额飙升至人民币1.57万亿元（合2,566亿美元），而7月份这个数字仅为8,080亿元。这表明中国开始再次用信贷来刺激增长。

At the same time, the global economy improved somewhat, giving a boost to China's exports. Jun Ma, an analyst for Deutsche Bank, estimates that growth in the U.S., Japan and Europe overall will be higher next year than it was this year, which should translate into a 3-4 percentage-point acceleration in Chinese exports.

同时，全球经济有所改善，中国出口受到提振。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)分析师马俊估计，美国、日本和欧洲明年的增长将高于今年，这应该会让中国的出口增速提高三到四个百分点。

Still, Chinese exporters are skittish about making the kinds of investments that can further boost growth.

不过，中国出口商对于进行可进一步刺激增长的投资显得犹豫不决。

Angela Tu, chairman of Xinpeng International Co, a shoe exporter in Wenzhou, says sales are up about 10% from last year, but the company doesn't have any plans to expand. 'Right now, our priority is to be stable and cut down expenditures and lay off workers if necessary.'

温州鞋类出口商鑫鹏进出口有限公司(Xinpeng International Co.)的董事长涂冬艳(Angela Tu)说，销量较去年增加了约10%，但公司并无任何扩张计划。她说，我们现在优先考虑的是稳定和削减支出，如有必要会裁员。