Barack Obama had an eventful presidency. He came into office during the worst financial crisis in three generations, helped stabilise the American economy, oversaw healthcare reform, pulled the US out of two wars, gave the order to kill Osama bin Laden, won the Nobel Prize, hosted some state dinners and played some golf. Many occupants of the Oval office boast a lot less. But unless something major changes, his presidency is stalled.

巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)迄今经历了繁忙的总统任期。他在三代人未遇的最严重金融危机期间上任，帮助稳定了美国经济，领导了医疗改革，让美国从两场战争中脱身，下令杀死奥萨马·本·拉登(Osama bin Laden)，获得诺贝尔奖，举办了几场国宴，还打了几场高尔夫。许多入主白宫的总统可以夸耀的事情远比他少。但是，除非出现重大变化，否则奥巴马的总统任期已陷入一筹莫展的境地。

As the events of recent months have weakened the president, revealed his weaknesses and shown deep flaws in the US political system, Mr Obama now runs the risk of becoming a lame duck very prematurely. Of course, he remains powerful. Some external event – a war, a disaster, a foreign upset or opportunity, or a major misstep by his opponents in the US – could restore life to his presidency. But barring a sea-change, he may achieve little more than he already has.

随着最近几个月发生的事件削弱了奥巴马，暴露了他的弱点和美国政治体系的深层缺陷，奥巴马目前有可能过早成为一只“跛脚鸭”。当然，他依然拥有权力。某个外部事件（一场战争、灾难、外交挫折或机遇，或者他的美国政敌出现重大失误）可能让他的总统任期焕发生机。但除非出现重大变化，否则他可能不会在已有成就的基础上更进一步。

Recent events illustrate the situation and offer clues as to the reasons behind it. Mr Obama began the year with modest aspirations. Hoping that his 2012 election victory had given him a mandate, he sought to advance a limited agenda: immigration reform, resolving budget problems, perhaps some corporate tax changes and investment in infrastructure. Internationally, his goals were even simpler: get out of the wars he inherited and keep us out of trouble. He has faltered in almost all areas of this agenda.

最近的事件表明了这种局面，并为背后的原因提供了线索。今年初，奥巴马抱有适度的志向。他希望2012年大选获胜赋予他民意授权，使他得以推进一个有限的议程：移民改革，解决预算问题，也许进行一些企业税改革和基础设施投资。在国际方面，他的目标甚至更为简单：退出他继承的战争，并避免美国陷入麻烦。几乎所有议程项目的进展都不太顺利。

Is Mr Obama to blame? The president cannot be held responsible for America’s poisonous politics. After the election he seemed to acknowledge the criticism that he had failed to reach out to Congress. He made an effort. It seemed sincere – even if it did underscore his uneasiness with backroom congressional politics. But he hit pushback. The fiscal deal that was engineered at the beginning of the new term ended up ensuring conflict over deficits, sequestration and the budget. This illustrated and compounded the partisan problems that have made the last Congress the least productive since the 1940s. The fact that Congress has become so split – a place where ideas and initiatives go to die – has had a broader effect. The withdrawal this week of Lawrence Summers from the race to be chair of the Federal Reserve, rather than face the legislators, is the latest example.

奥巴马应该受到指责吗？他不能对美国政坛的有毒气氛负责。在大选结束后，他似乎承认自己未能主动争取国会合作。他做出了努力。这种努力似乎是认真的，即便它的确突显出他对国会幕后政治的不自在。但他遭遇了阻力。在他的第二任期伊始设计的财政协议，最终导致他领导的政府和国会在赤字、自动减支和预算上发生冲突。这表明并加重了两党对立的问题——这些问题让上一届国会成为自上世纪40年代以来成效最低的国会。国会如此分裂的事实（国会实际上成了埋葬构想和倡议的地方）产生了更广泛的影响。最近劳伦斯·萨默斯(Lawrence Summers)决定退出角逐美联储(Fed)主席，而不是面对国会议员们，就是最新的例子。

Mr Obama’s notion of intervening in Syria has also been undone by perceived resistance in Congress – and, admittedly, among the American people. The result is a diplomatic dance with Moscow that may leave the perpetrators of chemical weapons attacks in place and Mr Obama weakened. Again, not all of the blame for this can be placed at the door of the Oval office. But the president does bear some responsibility.

奥巴马干预叙利亚的想法也被国会（诚然，还有美国人民）明显的抵制破坏。结果是美国与俄罗斯跳起外交舞蹈，这可能让使用化学武器袭击的作恶者逍遥法外，而奥巴马遭到削弱。同样，这不能全部归咎于白宫，但奥巴马的确要承担一些责任。

At home he has not been a leader of his party, proving to be more a product of the era of divide and politicise than he is an antidote to it. Internationally, he has vacillated, often appearing to take both sides and adding to the appearance of US weakness. At the same time, he alienated others with a policy of drones and a new breed of cyber imperialism that seems to claim that all data worldwide is America’s to take and do with what we please.

在美国国内，奥巴马没有领导好自己所在的政党，事实证明他在更大程度上是“分裂和政治化”时代的产物，而非这种时代的“解毒剂”。在国际上，他犹豫不决，经常表现得摇摆不定，让美国显得更加虚弱。与此同时，他推行无人机政策和新一代的网络帝国主义（其理念似乎主张，美国可以随心所欲地收集和利用全世界的所有数据），得罪了其他人。

Now, with midterm elections next year and the 2016 presidential candidates already testing campaign speeches in primary states, Mr Obama’s time and leverage are running out. Arrogance and ambivalence have undercut the promise of Mr Obama’s oratory and, indeed, of his earnest, intelligent, seemingly good character. Flashes of promise have been subsumed by circumstances, by his opponents and by the president’s own inability to build upon them. This hints at perhaps Mr Obama’s greatest problem.

现在，随着明年中期选举临近以及2016年总统候选人已经在几个初选州试验竞选演讲，奥巴马的时间和影响力正在耗荆傲慢和举棋不定让奥巴马的演讲光环褪色，也削弱了他的热忱、聪明以及看似不错的性格。承诺的火花往往熄灭——原因包括其它事务、对手的牵制，以及总统自己未能跟进。这或许暗示出奥巴马最大的问题。

He was such a convincing campaigner with such a great personal story that our expectations were set unreasonably high. In the end, he may prove an old maxim of US politics. The people vote hoping for the brilliance of a George Washington or Abraham Lincoln. But in the end, most of the time they get a Rutherford B Hayes – leaders who failed to live up to the aspirations of the voters or their times.

当年他是一个如此令人信服的竞选高手，拥有精彩的个人故事，以至于我们对他产生了高得不合理的预期。最终，他可能验证了美国政治的古老箴言。选民们希望选出像乔治·华盛顿(George Washington)或者亚伯拉罕·林肯(Abraham Lincoln)那样优秀的总统。但最终，他们大多数时候选上来的是拉瑟福德·伯查德·海斯(Rutherford Birchard Hayes)那样不能实现选民或时代抱负的领导人。

The writer is CEO and editor-at-large of Foreign Policy Magazine, and a former Clinton administration official