Will emerging markets make a comeback in 2014? It may seem unlikely given the losses seen during the summer, but some strategists and fund managers think so.

新兴市场是否会在2014年雄风再起？鉴于新兴市场今年夏季大幅下跌，这似乎是不太可能的，但一些策略师和基金经理却不这么认为。

Investor nervousness sparked by the US government shutdown and looming debt ceiling have capped the gains of stocks, bonds and currencies in the developing world, but September was nonetheless a positive month for most markets.

美国政府关闭以及债务上限将被突破的威胁，激起了投资者的紧张情绪，并限制了新兴市场中的股票、债券以及外汇资产涨幅，但9月份几乎所有的市场都出现了上涨行情。

And many analysts have turned “tactically bullish” on emerging markets since the Federal Reserve last month unexpectedly delayed its decision to taper monetary stimulus, predicting healthy gains once the uncertainty is lifted.

上个月，美联储(Federal Reserve)出乎意料地决定暂缓退出货币刺激政策，导致很多分析师对新兴市场转持“技术性看多”观点，并预计新兴市场将在不确定性消除后健康上行。

Nonetheless, some money managers and economists spy worrying storm clouds on the distant horizon, which could make this summer’s “taper tantrum” seem like a spring breeze.

不过，一些基金经理和经济学家注意到了远处地平线上令人担忧的风暴云团，和它比起来，今年夏季“量化宽松政策退出引发的市场动荡”就像是和煦的春风。

The debate on how and when QE will end is arguably a distraction from the more important fact that at some point the Fed will lift its actual benchmark interest rate.

有关量化宽松将于何时以及以何种方式退出的讨论，在某种程度上分散了人们对于一个更重要事实的关注，即美联储将在某个时点提高实际基准利率。

Moreover, China’s long boom is likely to fizzle out as Beijing attempts to rebalance its economy away from exports and debt-fuelled investments.

此外，中国持续多年的经济高速增长很可能逐渐放缓，因为中国政府试图摆脱依靠出口和放债投资推动的增长模式，实现经济结构再平衡。

Individually, both rate increases and slowing Chinese growth represent big challenges to the developing world. Together, they have the potential to trouble almost every country, and create severe problems in some. “It’s a really combustible situation,” argues Stephen Jen, of SLJ Macro Partners, a hedge fund. “They are all vulnerable.”

单独来看，美联储加息以及中国经济增长放缓都对新兴市场构成了巨大挑战。当这两者叠加在一起时，能对几乎所有国家构成潜在威胁，并在某些国家引发严重的问题。对冲基金SLJ Macro Partners的任永力(Stephen Jen)表示：“当前的形势称得上是一触即发。很多国家都非常脆弱。”

Historically, US rate in-creases have often caused or contributed to painful emerging market crashes, including a wave of government bankruptcies in Latin America in the 1980s, Mexico’s “Tequila Crisis” in 1994 and the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s.

从历史上看，美国上调利率通常会导致或者促使新兴市场崩盘，例如二十世纪八十年代拉丁美洲国家政府的破产潮、1994年墨西哥的“龙舌兰酒危机”以及二十世纪九十年代末期的亚洲金融危机。

Scarred by these debacles, many countries have radically reformed their economies and reinforced financial defences. The crucial question is whether they have done enough to prevent history repeating. This time could be different, but many experts are perturbed that the mere hint of an end to QE, back in May, produced such turmoil. What could happen when rates are actually lifted?

很多国家忍住这些惨痛经历带来的创伤，对自身经济结构进行了重大改革，并强化了金融系统的防御功能。不过最关键的问题是，这些国家是否已采取了足够的措施，以防止历史重演。当前的形势或许有所不同，但令很多专家深感不安的是，今年5月美联储仅仅暗示可能退出量化宽松，就引发了如此剧烈的市场动荡。当美联储真正提高利率水平，后果又会如何呢？

“If you have heart palpitations merely from walking up some steps, you’re really going to struggle when you have to start jogging,” says Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard.

哈佛大学(Harvard University)经济学教授肯尼斯•罗格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)表示：“如果你不过爬了几级台阶就心跳不止，当你开始慢跑的时候，就会实实在在地大吃苦头。”

Given the huge influence of the US in the global economy, Fed rate increases are likely to increase borrowing costs in many other nations. They will also probably cause the US dollar to appreciate.

鉴于美国在全球经济领域具有巨大的影响力，美联储上调利率很可能导致很多其他国家的借款成本上升，此外还将推动美元汇率走高。

In the past a stronger dollar has proven particularly hazardous to the health of developing countries.

历史经验证明，美元升值对发展中国家的经济健康尤为有害。

Many pegged their currencies to the dollar, and most of their debts were denominated in the US currency, a phenomenon known as the “original sin” of emerging markets. Original sin has receded significantly over the past decade. But there are still countries that will be pained by a rising dollar.

很多发展中国家实行本币钉住美元的汇率制度，而且其绝大部分债务都是以美元计价的，这种现象被称为新兴市场的“原罪”。近十年来，“原罪”的影响已经显著减弱。但仍有一些国家将会因为美元升值而感受阵痛。

Some are still weighed down by dollar debt piles, not least less-developed states that do not have local debt markets to tap. But the primary concern is the private sector.

一些国家仍然背负着以美元计价的沉重债务包袱，尤其是没有本币债券市场可供利用的相对不发达国家。不过最令人担心的是私人部门。

While many governments have abstained from dollar borrowing, since 2007 companies and banks have issued over $1.2tn of bonds – a splurge the International Monetary Fund has noted with concern.

虽然很多国家的政府一直尽力避免借入美元，但自2007年以来，发展中国家的企业和银行累计发行了超过1.2万亿美元的债券——这种挥霍资金的势头已经引起了国际货币基金组织(IMF)的关注。

Companies with big international debts can fail in times of stress, hurting local banks and eventually the country itself.

背负高额海外债务的企业在经济形势严峻的时期可能破产，损害本地银行的利益，最终也会损害本国的利益。

“If short-term rates go up then just sell everything,” says one senior EM strategist. “I’m sorry, but that’s fatal. There is no escape.”

一位资深新兴市场策略师表示：“如果短期利率走高，则应全面抛售各种资产。我很遗憾，但加息的影响是致命的。没有人能够逃脱。”

Many investors are unconcerned, and argue most countries can comfortably handle any problems. Jan Dehn, head of research at Ashmore, argues it is “ridiculous” to think that emerging markets are more vulnerable to rising rates than developed countries. “Emerging markets aren’t leveraged to the hilt like the US and Europe,” he points out.

很多投资者对此并不担心，并认为绝大多数国家都可以轻松应对所有问题。安石投资(Ashmore Investment)的研究主管简•德恩(Jan Dehn)表示，认为新兴市场相对于发达国家更易受美联储加息冲击的想法“非常荒谬”。他指出：“新兴市场并不像美国和欧洲那样将财务杠杆用到了极致。”

But there is another risk lurking in the background that the developing world has not had to contend with in the past: China.

但还有一个隐藏在暗处的风险是新兴市场过去无需应付的：那就是中国。

China’s economic miracle has been a boon for much of the developing world. But after several buoyant decades, the Asian behemoth is slowing down.

一直以来，中国的经济奇迹令绝大多数发展中国家从中受益。但在经历了几十年的高速增长之后，这头亚洲巨兽的脚步正在逐渐放缓。

Growth is likely to decelerate further in the future as Beijing attempts to rebalance its economy away from exports and investment and towards domestic demand. So far, economists are still pencilling in fairly benign forecasts for China in the coming years.

未来中国的经济增速很可能进一步减慢，因为中国政府正在试图重新平衡经济结构，改变出口和投资驱动的增长模式，转而依靠内需拉动增长。到目前为止，经济学家对中国未来几年的增长率仍然维持了较为乐观的预期。

The IMF believes growth will only slow to 7.3 per cent in 2014. But some observers are gloomier.

国际货币基金组织认为，2014年中国经济增速仅会放缓至7.3%。但一些观察家表达了更加悲观的看法。

Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University widely followed for his blunt predictions on China, argues growth is about to decelerate sharply and will hit 3 per cent before the end of the decade.

北京大学(Peking University)金融学教授迈克尔•佩蒂斯(Michael Pettis)指出，中国经济增速即将显著放缓，到2020年以前将降至3%。对于中国经济直言不讳的大胆预测使佩蒂斯受到了广泛关注。

“Higher interest rates would be a big danger, but the biggest danger is China,” argues Paul McNamara of GAM, an asset manager.

资产管理公司GAM的保罗•麦克纳马拉(Paul McNamara)指出：“利率上升将成为一大风险因素。但最大的风险仍然是中国。”