Currency speculators are betting on an end-of-year rally in emerging markets, as the weak dollar fuels a revival of carry trades in higher yielding currencies.

外汇投机者正押注于新兴市场货币将在年底反弹，因疲弱美元重新引燃了收益率较高货币的利差交易。

Long positions taken by active investors in Asia-Pacific currencies are at the highest level since the start of 2012, while long positions in emerging markets currencies are the highest in a year, according to a Citigroup analysis.

根据花旗(Citigroup)的一项分析，活跃投资者所持的亚太货币多头头寸处于2012年初以来最高水平，而新兴市场货币的多头头寸为一年来最高。

The swing in favour of riskier assets reflects expectations that the US Federal Reserve will maintain its stimulus programme at least until the start of next year while it assesses the damage done by the US government shutdown.

转而青睐风险更高资产的行为反映出市场预期：美联储(Fed)至少会将刺激计划维持到明年初，同时美联储将评估美国政府关门所造成的损害。

With the dollar close to a two-year low against a ­basket of rivals, dollar-funded investments in high yielding assets are more attractive.

美元兑一篮子货币的汇率接近两年低点，以美元融资、投资于高收益率资产的策略更具吸引力。

“The market can safely price the Fed to be on hold through the end of the year,” wrote strategists at Credit Suisse, noting that emerging markets had outperformed G7 currencies since the end of September.

瑞信(Credit Suisse)策略师写道：“市场可以有把握地预测，美联储在今年底之前将维持政策不变。”他们指出，自9月底以来，新兴市场货币的表现优于七国集团(G7)货币。

Some of the biggest gains have been in currencies that suffered heavy selling in July and August, as investors fled countries vulnerable to a sudden withdrawal of the Fed’s “easy money”. The Indonesian rupiah has risen 2.4 per cent against the dollar since the start of October, the South African rand 3.6 per cent and the Turkish lira 1.8 per cent.

一些最大汇率涨幅出现在曾在7月和8月遭受严重抛售的货币，当时投资者纷纷逃离容易受到美联储“宽松货币”突然退出的国家。自10月初以来，印尼卢比兑美元汇率上涨2.4%，南非兰特和土耳其里拉汇率分别上涨3.6%和1.8%。

Some think the shift in sentiment is sufficient to tempt institutional funds that pulled out of emerging markets earlier in the year.

一些人认为，情绪变化足以吸引今年早些时候退出新兴市场的机构资金。

“We needed a big bang to see real money back in the game. We believe we just had it,” wrote strategists at Citi.

花旗策略师写道：“我们需要一次大爆炸，才能看到真正的资金回归市场。我们认为，我们刚刚经历了这样的事件。”

However, the rally stalled yesterday, with many Asian currencies slipping as fears of a liquidity squeeze in China’s financial system rattled markets.

然而，新兴市场货币涨势昨日陷入停滞，很多亚洲货币出现下跌，原因是对中国金融体系发生流动性紧缩的担忧打击了市场。

Another risk is that authorities forced to intervene to prop up their currencies in recent months – including Brazil, India and Indonesia – may now scale back support.

另一个风险是，最近几个月曾被迫实施干预、以支撑本国货币的一些政府，现在可能会减少支持，这些国家包括巴西、印度和印尼。

Other governments would like a weaker currency: traders believe South Korea’s central bank has been intervening heavily to limit the won’s appreciation.

还有一些政府希望本币贬值：交易员认为，韩国央行一直在大举干预，以限制韩元升值。

Investors are also alert to the longer-term challenges facing emerging markets. “Growth is weak and fundamentals are shaky,” argue strategists at Morgan Stanley, who predict a short-lived tactical rally.

此外，投资者对新兴市场面临的较长期挑战保持警惕。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)策略师辩称：“增长疲弱，同时基本面因素不稳定。”他们预测这将是一次短时间的战术性反弹。