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不听巴菲特之言 错失投资好时机

发布者: sunnyHU | 发布时间: 2013-11-17 17:20| 查看数: 778| 评论数: 0|

Just over five years ago, global financial institutions appeared on the verge of collapse and stocks were sinking, Warren Buffett wrote an op-ed in The New York Times that seemed, at that time, out of touch with the pulse of the market. He encouraged investors to buy.

就在五年前,全球金融机构似乎处于崩溃边缘,股市一落千丈,巴菲特(Warren Buffett)在《纽约时报》撰写了一篇当时似乎与市场脉动脱节的评论文章。他鼓励投资者买进。

Buy? Mr. Buffett, then 78, appeared to finally have succumbed to a senior moment.

买进?当时78岁的巴菲特似乎终于老糊涂了。

Of course, it was great advice.

当然,现在看来那是个绝佳的建议。

Unfortunately, not enough of us followed it.

遗憾的是,遵循这条建议的人不够多。

'The financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad,' Mr. Buffett wrote. 'Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.'

巴菲特当时写道,金融世界一片混乱,美国和海外都是如此。此外,金融行业的问题已经渗透到整体经济中,而且现在正由渗漏演变成井喷。近期内,失业率将会升高,商业活动将会衰退,媒体头条会继续令人惊慌。

But, he added, he was buying stocks for his personal account.

但他补充说,他在为自己的个人账户买进股票。

'A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful,' Mr. Buffett wrote. 'And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors.'

巴菲特写道,我买进只是根据一个简单的原则:在他人贪婪时恐惧,而在他人恐惧时贪婪。毫无疑问,如今恐惧情绪遍地都是,就连老练的投资者也未能幸免。

We all know what has transpired since. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has nearly doubled. It is up 88% and closed Tuesday at a record high of 15680. The S&P 500 Index has performed even better. It's up 97% to above 1770.

我们都知道在那之后发生的事情。道琼斯指数接近翻番。该指数上涨了88%,周二收于15,680点的纪录高位。标普500指数的表现更好,上涨97%,超过了1,770点。

Mr. Buffett was not only right - and right in a big way - about the buying opportunity. He was right about the fear. Most of us stayed fearful for too long.

巴菲特说中的不只是买进机会(他说得太对了)。他还说中了人们的恐惧。我们大多数人恐惧的时间都太长了。

After pouring an average of $404 billion annually into mutual funds through 2008, investors pulled $150 billion out in 2009, according to the Investment Company Institute.

美国投资公司学会(Investment Company Institute)的数据显示,投资者2008年全年平均向共同基金投入了4,040亿美元,2009年撤出了1,500亿美元。

Since Mr. Buffett told investors to buy, investors have pulled $309 billion from total equity funds and a whopping $448 billion from domestic equity funds, according to ICI.

投资公司学会数据显示,在巴菲特告诉投资者买进之后,投资者已经从全部股票型基金中撤出3,090亿美元,从美国本土股票基金中撤出4,480亿美元之多。

But what's alarming is the fear has persisted.

但令人担忧的是,这种恐惧一直持续。

A survey released this week by asset manager BlackRock Inc. found that most Americans still are skittish when it comes to investing in anything. They keep 48% of their investible assets in cash, just 18% in stocks and 7% in bonds.

资产管理公司贝莱德(BlackRock Inc.)本周发布的一项调查显示,大多数美国人在投资方面仍然担惊受怕。他们将48%的可投资资产留作现金,只有18%投入股票,7%投入债券。

Now, there's a feeling among investors that they've missed out. Thirty-six percent of respondents said they wished they had invested for retirement sooner.

现在,投资者觉得他们错过了好时机。36%的受访者说,他们觉得自己要是早些为退休投资就好了。

Investors have come back this year, as the year-long rally suggests, but they've come back after most of the gains were made.

今年持续整年的涨势表明,投资者已经回归,但在这之前,他们已经错过了大部分的涨势。

Investors so far this year have added $106 billion to equity funds, but it has hardly made up for the selling of the last three years. From August 2010 to August 2013, investors have pulled $195 billion from equity funds, according to ICI -- and that includes recent buying.

今年迄今,投资者向股票基金新投入了1,060亿美元,但还没有补足过去三年抛售的规模。投资公司学会的数据显示,从2010年8月至2013年8月,投资者从股票基金撤出了1,950亿美元――这还包括了最近的买入。

There's really only one conclusion to draw from this. Despite Mr. Buffett's reputation as an 'oracle' of investing, we don't listen.

我们从中只能得出一个结论。尽管巴菲特有投资“先知”之名,但我们并不听从他的意见。

To be fair, there was plenty of evidence to ignore him. Less than six months after his advice was published, the S&P 500 fell another 24%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 20%.

公平地说,确实有很多迹象足以让我们忽视他的说法。在他的建议公布之后不到六个月的时间里,标普500指数再跌24%。道琼斯指数下跌20%。

Even after the rally started slowly and surely thereafter, a series of events made stock investing appear dicey.

即使之后开始缓慢并且确定无疑的反弹,也还是有一系列的事件令投资股市显得极具风险。

There was the Greek and European debt crisis. French, Cypriot and Italian bank crises. Falling home prices. The 'flash crash' in May 2010. The federal government budget 'sequestration.' There have been multiple stand-offs in Washington over the debt ceiling and, most recently, a government shutdown that put a kink in the recovery.

先后发生的事情有:希腊和欧洲债务危机;法国、塞浦路斯和意大利的银行业危机;房价下跌;2012年5月的“闪电崩盘”;美国联邦政府预算停顿;华盛顿就债务上限问题出现多次对峙;最近的一次是美国政府关门影响了复苏。

Yet none of these troubles really sank the broader market for an extended period of time. Volume was light in the markets, but what little action that was happening was predominantly buying.

然而,上述麻烦都没有真正地令整体市场长时间下挫。虽然市场交投清淡,但占主导的交易是买进。

For those few who heeded Mr. Buffett's advice, it has been a very good five years.

对于那些接受了巴菲特建议的人来说,过去的五年是非常美妙的五年。

For the rest of us, we were fearful when we should have been greedy.

而对其他人来说,我们在应当贪婪的时候却恐惧了。

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