Spring Hill College in Mobile, Ala., was founded in 1830. It has graduated governors and admirals. Martin Luther King Jr. praised it for its early efforts at integration in his 'Letter from Birmingham Jail.'

位于亚拉巴马州莫比尔(Mobile)的斯普林希尔学院(Spring Hill College)成立于1830年。从这里毕业的学生有的后来成为州长，有的成了将军。马丁・路德・金(Martin Luther King Jr.)在他的《伯明翰监狱来鸿》(Letter from Birmingham Jail)中对这所学院早先在种族融合方面所做的努力大加赞扬。

None of that august history protected it from plummeting enrollment last year. So, to induce prospective students to consider its $170,000 sticker price for a four-year education, Spring Hill began offering $1,000 scholarships for taking a campus tour.

如此辉煌的历史也未能改变这样一个现实：去年，这家学院的入学人数大幅减少。因此，为了吸引更多学生考虑来这所学制四年、需要17万美元（约合人民币102万元）学费的学校读书，斯普林希尔学院开始为前来校园参观了解的学生提供1000美元（约合人民币6,000元）的奖学金。

'We're at a time when enrollment is the No. 1 driver,' said Bob Stewart, the school's vice president for admissions and financial aid. 'We needed to have some game changers to bring in new students.'

“我们如今处在这样一个阶段，入学人数成了我们第一位的努力方向，”该校负责录取和奖助学金的副校长鲍勃・斯图尔特(Bob Stewart)说。“我们需要一些有突破性的点子来吸引新生源。”

Spring Hill was caught in the same tailspin that many U.S. private colleges are facing as they endure plummeting enrollment among price-conscious students.

如今，斯普林希尔学院所面临的困境对于美国许多私立大学而言都不陌生，随着学生对学费愈加敏感，这些私立大学的入学人数大幅减少。

From 2010 through 2012, freshman enrollment at more than a quarter of U.S. private four-year schools declined 10% or more, according to federal data The Wall Street Journal analyzed. From 2006 through 2009, fewer than one in five experienced a similar decline.

根据《华尔街日报》对美国联邦数据的分析，在2010年到2012年间，超过四分之一的美国四年制私立院校发现，其报考人数下降了至少10%，而在2006年到2009年之间，报考人数出现类似降幅的学校比例不足五分之一。

The trajectory reflects demographic and technological changes, along with questions about a college degree's value that are challenging centuries-old business models. The impact is uneven: Some wealthy, selective private colleges are flourishing, while many others suffer.

这一下降反映出人口结构和技术方面的变化，此外，人们对于大学学历含金量的质疑也挑战着这种已经维持了几个世纪的商业模式。在此影响面前，并非每所学校都平等：一些资金充足的尖子私立院校一派繁荣，而其他许多私校却遭受打击。

Schools on the losing end are responding with closures, layoffs, cutbacks, mergers and new recruitment strategies. Many see these as the first signs of a shakeout that will reorder the industry.

那些面临困境的学校纷纷以关门、裁员、削减预算、合并和新的招生策略来应对。许多人认为这是一些早先征兆，随之而来的将是一场即将改变整个行业秩序的大动荡。

'I think it's fair to say 30% of these private schools won't exist in a decade,' said Jonathan Henry, vice president of enrollment management at Husson University, a private school in Bangor, Maine, whose 2013 first-year enrollment was 17% lower than in 2009. 'A lot of these schools will have to learn to live with less.' Husson has built graduate programs to offset the declines, he said.

“我认为这样说并不过分，这些私立院校中，30%的学校将在10年后不复存在，”哈森大学(Husson University)负责招生录取的副校长乔纳森・亨利(Jonathan Henry)说。“许多学校将不得不学会依靠较少的学生来维持生存。”哈森大学是位于缅因州班戈(Bangor)的一所私立院校，该校2013年一年级新生的入学人数比2009年少了17%。

The Journal studied first-year enrollments at all U.S. private universities and colleges with over 100 freshmen, using data provided by the Education Department. Direct comparisons to previous enrollment changes weren't available with the department's online data, which start in 2006.

《华尔街日报》根据美国教育部(Education Department)的数据，对所有新生人数超过100人的美国私立大学和学院的一年级新生录取情况进行了分析。依据教育部网站上所提供的数据，无法得到与上一年的入学人数变化的直接比较数据，网站上所提供的数据从2006年开始。

Private-school enrollment has generally risen in good times and fallen when household incomes were pinched.

一般情况下，私立院校的入学人数在经济环境较好时会上升，而在家庭收入拮据时则会下降。

But more-worrisome long-term trends are buffeting these schools, including a national decline in the number of graduating high-school seniors, a swarm of technologies driving down costs and profit margins, rising student debt, a soft job market for college graduates and stagnant household incomes. Meanwhile, college costs have climbed at more than triple the inflation rate.

不过，一些更令人不安的长期发展趋势正对这些院校造成打击，这其中包括：全美的高中毕业生人数整体下降，大量技术手段正在压低成本和利润空间，学生债务负担上升，大学毕业生的就业市场疲软，以及家庭收入停滞不前。与此同时，美国大学就读成本的上涨幅度是通货膨胀率的三倍多。

With the exception of the most selective colleges, these dynamics have pinched most public and private schools. But private colleges considered 'midtier' that have low endowments and high tuitions appear most vulnerable.

除了那些最为优秀的院校，这些变化对大多数公立和私立院校都已造成压力。而那些招生面向中等学生、奖助学金少且学费高的私立院校，所受到的影响最大。

A report by Moody's Investors Service found that revenue at 35% of private schools it rated rose in the fiscal year ended June 2012 by less than the Federal Reserve's target inflation rate of 2%. In the year ended June 2009, the figure was 11%.

穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody's Investors Service)的一份报告显示，在截至2012年6月份的财年中，该公司追踪评级的私立院校中有35%的院校，其收入增幅不及美联储(Federal Reserve)所设定的2%的通胀目标。在截至2009年6月份的财年（这一年，美国国内高中毕业生人数达到近期峰值）中，这一比例是11%。

At Mitchell College in New London, Conn., 2012 freshman enrollment was down a third from 2010. Last year, it bought a list of 50,000 names of prospective freshmen to use for marketing, up from 5,000 in earlier years, said Sue Bibeau, vice president of enrollment. The 75-year-old college is also cultivating adult-education programs.

在位于康涅狄格州新伦敦(New London)的米切尔学院(Mitchell College)，2012年的一年级新生入学人数比2010年减少了三分之一。该校负责招生录取的副校长休・比博(Sue Bibeau)说，去年他们买了一份5万名目标新生的名单用来做针对性宣传。此外，这所拥有75年历史的学院还在发展成人教育项目。

'The recession took a heavy toll on us,' she said. 'We have to let more people know we are here.'

“经济衰退对我们的影响很大，”她说。“我们必须让更多人知道我们的存在。”

Enrollment pressures reflect many factors. Prospective students are more likely to take refuge on campuses during recessions, when jobs are scarce, federal data show. Drops tend to occur early after recoveries. Demographics determine the number of potential freshmen.

招生压力反映出许多因素。据美国联邦数据显示，在经济衰退时，潜在生源往往更愿意躲进校园暂避开不景气的就业市场。而在经济开始复苏之初，生源便往往会减少。人口结构也决定了潜在新生的人数。

Between 1966 and 2010, college-student numbers doubled as baby boomers, and then their children, enrolled. The number of high-school graduates peaked in 2011 and is projected to fall or flatten until 2024.

在1966年到2010年间，因婴儿潮一代、以及随后他们的子女开始入学，大学生人数增长了一倍。2011年，高中毕业生人数达到峰值，预计随后到2024年之前，人数将有所减少或是持平。

That stagnation coincides with new lower-cost online alternatives. The number of college students taking at least one online course nearly doubled to 45% between 2008 and 2013, according to a survey by Crux Research, a market-research firm.

与此同时，又恰好出现了就读成本较低的新兴互联网项目。根据市场调查公司Crux Research的一项调查，在2008年到2013年期间，参与至少一项网上课程的大学生人数几乎增长了一倍，达到45%。

The squeeze has prompted a hunt for efficiencies. Schools are joining teaching consortia to share costs and are outsourcing noncore services. More are consolidating: Between 2010 and October 2013, 45 schools merged, compared with 16 from 2006 through 2009, according to Higher Education Publications, which tracks the category.

生源的紧张促使大学院校纷纷设法提高效率。他们组织联合师资力量来分担成本，并将一些非核心的服务外包出去。还有许多院校开始进行整合；根据追踪提供高等教育资讯的Higher Education Publications的数据，在2010年到2013年10月期间，有45所美国院校进行了合并，相比之下，2006年到2009年间，合并的院校只有16所。

In the Buffalo area, St. Bonaventure University and Hilbert College recently announced they are considering merging. Hilbert's enrollment fell 27% between 2010 and 2012.

近来，同位于布法罗(Buffalo)地区的 波拿文都大学(St. Bonaventure University)和希尔伯特学院(Hilbert College)宣布他们正在考虑合并事宜。希尔伯特学院的入学人数在2010年到2012年间下降了27%。

'We know the status quo is not sustainable,' said Hilbert College President Cynthia Zane. 'Of the 4,000 universities in this country, maybe 500 have economic immunity because their endowments are so high...everybody else is going to be profoundly impacted by the swings in the U.S. economy.'

“我们知道现状无法维持下去，”希尔伯特学院校长辛西娅・赞恩(Cynthia Zane)说。“在这个国家的4000所大学中，大概有500所大学因奖学金和助学金很高而不会受到经济环境影响……而其他的所有院校都将因美国经济的波动而受到严重影响。”

Some colleges have raised prices, hoping to get more revenue from those who can afford it while offering deeper discounts for others. That strategy means per-student net revenue is flat or dropping at most schools.

一些院校上调了学费，希望从那些上得起大学的学生身上多赚些收入，与此同时他们针对交不起学费的学生提供了更多的优惠。这一策略的结果是，在大多数学校，平均到每个学生身上的收入持平或是有所下降了。

At St. John's College in Annapolis, Md., freshman enrollment fell 17% from 2011 to 2013. More than 30% of the budget is covered with gifts, up from 18% in 2008, President Chris Nelson said.'We've had to change our business model,' he said.

位于马里兰州安纳波利斯(Annapolis)的 约翰学院(St. John's College)，在2011年到2013年间新生人数减少了17%。据该校校长克里斯・纳尔逊(Chris Nelson)称，该校30%的预算依靠捐赠来填补，高于2008年的18%。“我们必须改变我们的经营模式了，”他这样表示。

Some are abandoning features that have been part of their identities. Historically black colleges are recruiting Latinos and Asians. Single-sex schools are going coed.

一些院校正在放弃原本作为该校特色的一些东西。那些传统的黑人院校开始接收拉美裔学生和亚裔学生。只招收男生或女生的院校开始变成男女生混招。

Georgian Court University in New Jersey, single-sex since 1908, decided to go coed after the 2012 class shrank a third. 'In 2011 you couldn't even utter the word coed without offending someone,' said John McAuliffe, vice president of enrollment.

新泽西州的格鲁吉亚法院大学(Georgian Court University)自1908年以来一直是单性别学校，但自2012年入学人数减少了三分之一后，该校决定开始同时招收男生和女生。该校负责招生的副校长约翰・麦考利夫(John McAuliffe)：“在2011年，你若想谁都不得罪地说出男女生混招这个词都不可能。”

Mr. Henry at Husson University is cultivating prospects early: This month, he will speak to two busloads of fifth-graders.

哈森大学的亨利早早就开始动手挖掘生源。这个月，他将对两车的5年级学生讲话。

Zach Messitte, president of Ripon College of Ripon, Wis., just returned from a recruiting trip to São Paulo high schools. One of the Brazilian schools 'said they've already had 100 colleges there this year,' Mr. Messitte said. 'Schools see wealthy, full-pay kids who want a U.S. education,' he said, 'and get stars in their eyes.'

在威斯康星州里彭(Ripon)的瑞普学院(Ripon College)任校长的扎克・麦斯蒂(Zach Messitte)刚刚在巴西 保罗的各所高中进行了一圈招生巡讲回来。这些巴西学校中的一家“表示他们今年已经接待了100所大学院校了，”麦斯蒂说。“各学校都看中了那里家庭富有、付着全额学费且对美国教育感兴趣的孩子，”他说，“这些孩子让他们眼前一亮。”

At Spring Hill, the $1,000 campus tour was a hit. Mr. Stewart said the 2013 class size rebounded with the help of 315 tour scholarships.

在斯普林希尔学院，参观校园免1000美元学费的奖学金项目很受欢迎。据斯图尔特称，在315个参观校园奖学金的帮助下，该校2013年的入学人数有所回升。

Enrollment managers agree students and families have become more savvy shoppers. As inducements grow, so do expectations.

各院校的招生人员都承认，学生和家长们如今已变成了更精明的消费者。随着吸引生源手段的增加，他们的预期也会水涨船高。

Meredith Sammon, a 17-year-old high-school senior from Carrollton, Ga., visited Spring Hill recently and said she was impressed by the $1,000 scholarship.

今年17岁的乔治亚州卡罗尔顿(Carrollton)高中毕业班学生梅雷迪斯・萨蒙(Meredith Sammon)最近参观了斯普林希尔学院，并表示，1000美元的奖学金让她印象深刻。

But she wasn't sold: 'It's a great incentive,' she said. 'But it's not a deal-closer.'

但她没有就此敲定：“这很有吸引力，”她说。“不过这不能决定一切。”