Thailand is in the grip of another bout of civil unrest. The Philippines is still recovering from a devastating typhoon. Southeast Asia does not look the most obvious place for an investor to put his or her money now, but the region has also been home to some of the best-performing stock markets in the world over the past five years.泰国陷入新一轮内乱，受台风重创的菲律宾仍未完全恢复过来，东南亚看上去不是目前最吸引人的投资目的地。但在过去5年里，该地区的一些股票市场位居全球表现最佳股市之列。

In the early 1990s, when visitors to China still had to pay their hotel bills using foreign exchange certifcates, southeast Asia was a favourite among western investors. Money poured in, attracted by young and rapidly urbanising populations and relatively open economies. 20世纪90年代初，到中国旅行还必须用外汇券支付住宿费，那时东南亚是最受西方投资者青睐的地区之一。在年轻且快速城市化的人口以及相对开放的经济的吸引下，大量资金涌入了东南亚。

But in 1997 the party ended, as governments, companies and consumers in the region struggled to service the debts they had accumulated. Currencies and stock markets slumped. The IMF was called in to bail out several countries. Malaysia reimposed capital controls. 但这场盛会到1997年就结束了，该地区的政府、企业和消费者都无力偿还各自累积的债务。外汇市场和股票市场一蹶不振。国际货币基金组织(IMF)应请求对几个国家施救。马来西亚再度实施了资本管制。

At the same time, China’s less open economy started to surge ahead. Brazil enjoyed the fruits of a mining and agricultural boom. The chaos of 1990s Russia gave way to stability under Vladimir Putin. Business-friendly governments started to liberalise India’s economy. Southeast Asia was increasingly overshadowed by other, bigger emerging markets. 与此同时，中国开放程度较低的经济开始爆发式增长。巴西尽享矿业与农业繁荣的果实。在弗拉基米尔?普京(Vladimir Putin)带领下，俄罗斯结束了20世纪90年代的混乱局面，终于归于稳定。印度的亲商政府开始实施经济自由化。这些体量更大的新兴经济体日益让东南亚相形见绌。

The aftermath of the financial crisis, characterised by easy monetary policies around the world, drove a recovery in southeast Asian markets. At one point this year, the Philippines was the second best-performing market in the world after Japan. But then the US Federal Reserve suggested it might scale back its bond purchases, and emerging markets were routed. Economies in the Asean countries – the 11 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – are slowing. 金融危机过后，全球各地都实行了宽松货币政策，推动东南亚市场出现复苏。菲律宾今年一度成为除日本外全球表现最佳的市场。但随后，美联储(Federal Reserve)表示其可能削减债券购买规模，新兴市场大受冲击。东盟(Asean)十一国的经济正在放缓。

The Asian Development Bank has already cut its 2013 growth forecast for southeast Asia to 4.9 per cent from 5.4 per cent, though this still far exceeds the growth prospects for developed markets. In the past five years the MSCI southeast Asia index, which covers Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines has risen 130 per cent, but so far this year the index is up by just 7 per cent. 亚洲开发银行(ADB)已将2013年东南亚预期增长率从5.4%下调至4.9%，但这个数字仍远高于发达市场的预期增速。涵盖新加坡、马来西亚、泰国、印尼和菲律宾的摩根士丹利资本国际东南亚指数(MSCI Southeast Asia index)在过去5年里累计上涨了130%，但今年迄今仅上涨7%。

Yet demographics are in the region’s favour. The United Nations estimates that southeast Asia’s population will grow by 100m to 700m by 2030, adding 65m workers. China may be trying to rebalance its economy, but consumption already accounts for more than half of gross domestic product in Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines – and consumers are typically young, aspirational and upwardly mobile. 不过，东南亚地区的人口结构非常有利。据联合国(UN)估计，到2030年东南亚人口将增加1亿，达到7亿，劳动力将新增6500万人。中国或许正在力争实现经济再平衡，而在印尼、泰国、越南和菲律宾，消费已占到国内生产总值(GDP)的一半以上，大部分消费者年轻、有抱负，处于人生的上升阶段。

Hard lessons were learned from the 1990s crisis. Southeast Asian economies today have sounder public finances, bigger foreign exchange reserves, their companies are better run and less reliant on foreign sources of finance, and their capital markets are more developed. 东南亚从20世纪90年代危机中汲取了沉痛的教训。如今，这些经济体的公共财政状况更稳健，外汇储备更充裕，企业经营水平更高，更少依赖外来资金，资本市场也更发达。