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2013年表现最差的五只股票

发布者: sunny214 | 发布时间: 2014-1-1 16:59| 查看数: 933| 评论数: 0|

Two thousand and thirteen was a great year for almost the entire stock market. The economy grew enough, the jobs market grew enough, and corporate profits grew enough. The Fed kept its easy-money policies running full-bore all year. Costs were down, borrowing was cheap, and stocks were an easy bet compared to bonds.

The result is the Dow is up 26% on the year, the S&P 500 is up 29%. Both have set more than 40 fresh record highs in the course of the year. It was a stock picker's paradise, and a portfolio manager's paradise.

It wasn't a paradise for everybody, though.

It's hard to be a loser in a year like this one, when everything seems to be moving higher, but there were some stocks that had especially bad years. Down years. Awful years. Think companies under intense duress, like J.C. Penney and BlackBerry, or companies lashed to plunging commodities, like Newmont Mining.

Here are five of the worst (all percentage changes are as of Friday's closing price).

#1: J.C. Penney - Down 54%

For a department store that has a century of history behind it, 2013 may be one of its worst years. In the spring, the board fired former Apple wunderkind Ron Johnson, the man who they hired to bring that high-tech pizzazz to the floundering chain. Mr. Johnson's flair for retail looked fantastic when it was wrapping up iPads and iPods and Macs; it was far less effective in selling Penney's down-market goods. In April, the company acknowledged the failure, and sacked Mr. Johnson.

To rub salt in that wound, the company brought back Myron Ullman, the man Mr. Johnson replaced. As if all that wasn't bad enough, the stock's precipitous drop drove it right out of the S&P 500 -- especially painful as J.C. Penney was an original member of the index, going back to its start in 1957 (there are 67 left). After trading as high as $87 in 2007, Penney shares sank to as low as $6.24 in 2013.

The company will likely spend 2014 shaking off the afterburn of the Johnson era, while trying to move into a new one with its old CEO. 'We expect another roller coaster ride next year,' Sterne Agee wrote. 'Buckle up!'

#2: Newmont Mining - Down 50%

It hasn't been an easy year for anybody associated with the gold market, which careened out of a 13-year bull market in 2013. Slowing emerging markets, changes in the way the mining industry operates, and of course changes in how gold and inflation and central banks all interoperate have conspired to drive gold prices down.

The miners took it especially hard. Newmont Mining has been hammered. Apart from its plunge during the Panic of 2008, Newmont stock has not been this low since 2002. While it's down about 50% this year, it's down nearly 70% since its all-time high of $70.49 in November 2011. Investors shouldn't plan on a return to those levels.

'We probably won't get back to the boom days of 2012 any time soon,' former Newmont CEO (who now runs Boart Longyear) Richard O'Brien said back in October.

For risk takers, gold's annus horribilis could presage an opportunity for 2014. The lower prices will force miners to cut costs and improve operations, and those with stable mines should outperform their peers, J.P. Morgan said. 'Down cycles improve miners' skills and create opportunities,' the firm said, paraphrasing Newmont's North American chief, Tom Kerr.

That may not help Newmont in the near term, though. J.P. Morgan lowered its price target on the stock to $28 from $36. That's up from the current price, which is around $23, but not by much.

#3: BlackBerry - Down 39%

BlackBerry founder Mike Lazaridis got plaudits after announcing that he was selling a part of his stake in the company. 'Smart move,' the Street said.

What would have been a really smart move would've been to sell the entire company years ago.

BlackBerry, until this year called Research in Motion, has been losing market share to the competition for several years, but never has the company's future seemed so bleak. It brought in a new CEO, a new business plan, a new strategy. Things look marginally better than they did a month or so ago, when the stock bottomed out at $5.68. Still, this is a company most people have written off. The mean price target on the Street, according to FactSet, is just $6.36. That's below the $7.30 price it closed at Friday, a day after Mr. Lazaridis announced his sale.

'Even with a sharper direction the company may still be on a path to destroy shareholder capital,' BGC Financial tech analyst Colin Gillis wrote.

#4: Abercrombie & Fitch - Down 30%

Once upon a time, Abercrombie & Fitch was a bastion of Hemingway-esque adventurers and travelers, selling sporting goods and gear. Then it got bought out, and the new owners ditched the safari duds for hip, sexy, and young clothing. Sales took off. But Abercrombie's flavor went stale this year, and the company's had a brutal year. Sales are down, the stock is down, and A&F is another retailer that got booted out of the S&P 500.

After trading in the $80 during 2007, Abercrombie shares are down around $33.

Getting back on their game won't be easy. A&F has been an aggressive discounter this holiday season, with most items off 50% or more, according to Susquehanna Financial Group. The discounting will cut into the bottom line, and Susquehanna sees A&F earning 83 cents a share in the fourth-quarter, with 2013 EPS at $1.40. But it pegs 2014 earnings at $2.77, nearly double. Still, that's down from 2012's $2.91, to say nothing of the $5.16 a share the company earned in 2007.

Of course, it all depends upon what the cool kids are doing next year.

#5: Peabody - Down 28%

It hasn't been an easy year for coal miners, and Peabody's performance led that dismal parade. Much like Newmont, Peabody has suffered as the commodity cycle has turned on it. The increase in natural gas use has hurt coal, and the slowdown in China, which is a huge coal importer of Australian coal, has also been a major issue.

The key for Peabody in 2014 will obviously hinge on coal prices. 'More than one-third of [metallurgical] coal producers globally are not making money at current prices,' Sterne Agee wrote. It expects prices will 'normalize' in 2014, possibly in the second half, and Peabody's put itself in a good position should that happen, said the firm, which has a $30 price target on the company.

Peabody settled labor negotiations with workers at its Metropolitan mine in Australia, and is expected to begin a new type of mining, called longwall caving technology, at its North Goonyella mine within the next few weeks. The firm sees 2013 earnings of only 30 cents a share, but expects that to improve to $1 a share in 2014.

2013年对于几乎整个股市来说都个好年头。经济、就业市场和企业利润都有足够的增长。美联储(Fed)全年都保持宽松货币政策全速推进。成本下降、借贷利率很低,相比债券,股票是个简单的选择。

道琼斯指数全年上涨26%,标普500指数上涨29%。两指数在这一年中都创造了超过40次纪录新高。这是选股者的天堂,也是投资组合经理的天堂。

然而,它并不是所有人的天堂。

在这样的一年里,一切似乎都在走高,想要亏损都不容易,但还是有一些股票表现尤其糟糕。(对于它们来说,2013年是)下跌的年头、糟糕的年头。想想面临困境的那些公司,比如J.C. Penney和黑莓(BlackBerry),或是像Newmont Mining一样被一落千丈的大宗商品绑架的公司。

以下是表现最差的五家公司(所有百分比变化都截至上周五收盘价)。

#1:J.C. Penney - 跌54%

对于一家有着百年历史的百货商店,2013年可能是它最差的年头之一。今年春季,该公司董事会解雇了前苹果(Apple)青年才俊约翰逊(Ron Johnson),他们原本聘任他是为了将高科技的活力注入这家苦苦挣扎的连锁企业。在实现iPad、iPod和Mac电脑热卖方面,约翰逊显示了出色的零售天分,但在销售Penney的平价商品时却远远没那么有效。今年4月,该公司承认失误,并解雇了约翰逊。

雪上加霜的是,该公司请回了原本为约翰逊所接替的乌尔曼(Myron Ullman)。这还不算完,该公司股票的剧跌令它被直接剔除出标普500成分股的行列——这尤其令人心痛,因为J.C. Penny是该指数1957年创建时就列入的最早的成分股(现在还有67只)。Penney的股价在2007年曾达到87美元的高点,2013年下跌至6.24美元。

该公司2014年可能致力于摆脱约翰逊时代留下的印记,同时试图在老掌门的带领下进入一个新时代。经纪公司Sterne Agee写道,我们预期该公司明年将再次出现过山车般的大起大落,请系好安全带!

#2:Newmont Mining - 跌50%

对于任何与黄金市场相关的公司来说,今年都不容易,2013年,黄金市场结束持续了13年的牛市。新兴市场经济放缓、矿业经营方式变化、当然还有黄金与通胀以及央行相互关系的变化,共同推动黄金价格走低。

矿业公司受到的打击尤其严重。Newmont Mining饱受冲击。除了2008年恐慌期间的大跌之外,Newmont股价自2002年以来都未曾有过这么低的水平。该股今年下跌约50%,较2011年11月创下的70.49美元的纪录高点下跌了近70%。投资者不应指望还能回到之前的水平。

Newmont前首席执行长、现在掌管Boart Longyear的奥布赖恩(Richard O'Brien)今年10月曾说,短期内我们可能都无法恢复2012年的辉煌。

对于敢冒险的人来说,黄金的灾难之年可能预示着2014年的机会。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)说,价格的下跌将迫使矿企削减成本、改善运营,而那些有着稳定矿山的企业表现应当超过同行。摩根大通引述Newmont负责北美业务的科尔(Tom Kerr)的话说,衰退周期会提高矿企的能力、创造机会。

不过,这可能无法在近期提振Newmont,摩根大通将该股目标价从36美元下调至28美元。这个价格较该股当前股价23美元左右要高,但也没高多少。

#3:黑莓 - 跌39%

黑莓创始人迈克•拉扎里迪斯(Mike Lazaridis)宣布将出售部分公司股票,华尔街人士称赞这是一个聪明的选择。

但如果他在几年前选择卖掉整个公司,那将是一个真正的明智之举。

黑莓此前的名字是Research in Motion,今年刚刚换成了新名字,几年来该公司一直在激烈的竞争中丧失市场份额,但公司前景从未像现在这么黯淡。该公司引入了新的首席执行长、制定了新的商业计划和新的策略,但事情只是比一个月前该股跌至5.68美元低点时略微有些好转,该公司仍是一家让多数投资者赔本的公司。据FactSet称,华尔街人士对该公司的平均估值仅为6.36美元,低于上周五该股的收盘价7.30美元,上周四拉扎里迪斯宣布了减持计划。

BGC Financial科技股分析师科林•吉利斯(Colin Gillis)写道,即便发展方向更为明确,该公司仍会让股东赔本。

#4:Abercrombie & Fitch - 跌30%

Abercrombie & Fitch曾经是海明威式冒险家和旅行者的堡垒,出售各种运动产品和装备。此后该公司被收购,新的拥有者抛弃了旅行服装转而生产时尚、性感的年轻人服装,销售额也大幅增长。但今年该公司的风格没有新意,经历了残酷的一年,销售额下降,股价下跌,该公司也成为了又一家被踢出标准普尔500指数成分股的零售商。

Abercrombie & Fitch的股价已经较2007年的80美元下跌了大约33美元。

要想东山再起并不容易。据Susquehanna Financial Group称,Abercrombie & Fitch在这个假期购物季大力打折促销,多数商品都提供了50%或以上的折扣。打折将侵蚀利润,Susquehanna预计该公司第四财季每股收益为83美分,2013财年每股收益为1.40美元,但2014财年每股收益增长近一倍达到2.77美元。但即便如此,仍低于该公司2012年2.91美元的每股收益,更不要说2007年5.16美元的每股收益了。

当然一切都取决于时尚的年轻人明年喜欢什么。

#5:博地能源(Peabody) - 跌28%

对于煤矿企业来说,今年的日子并不好过,其中博地能源的表现尤其糟糕。与Newmont一样,大宗商品的周期对博地能源产生了不利影响。天然气使用量的增长冲击了煤炭行业,另外中国经济放缓也是一个重要原因。中国是澳大利亚煤炭的主要进口国。

2014年博地能源的表现显然将主要取决于煤炭价格。Sterne Agee写道,全球三分之一以上的冶金煤炭生产商在目前的价格上都无法盈利。该公司称,预计煤炭价格2014年将趋于正常,时间可能会在下半年,如果果真如此,博地能源将处于有利地位。该公司将博地能源的目标价定在30美元。

博地能源已经与澳大利亚Metropolitan矿的工人完成劳资谈判,并且预计未来几周将在North Goonyella矿使用一种新型的长壁采煤技术。Sterne Agee预计2013年博地能源每股收益仅为30美分,但预计2014年将增长到每股1美元。

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