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“中概股”再受宠?

发布者: sunny214 | 发布时间: 2014-2-17 10:00| 查看数: 529| 评论数: 1|

Not too long ago, Chinese companies listed on US stock exchanges were an endangered species. Bears had pounced on them after short sellers exposed fraud after fraud. And a Washington-Beijing regulatory dispute over auditing threatened them all, even the good ones, with a mass delisting.就在不久以前,在美国上市的中国公司似乎是一个濒危物种。在卖空者揭露一例又一例欺诈行为之后,它们遭到大举抛售。同时美中围绕审计过程的监管纠纷对所有这些企业均构成威胁,甚至包括那些良好企业,结果可能导致大批企业退市。
But investors are not usually known for their long memories, and so it has proved in this instance. Concerns about both the quality of US-listed Chinese companies and the legal standing of their cross-border listings have melted away like the snows of Sochi. Chinese stocks traded in the US have rebounded and the market has reopened to new listings. Is the renewed confidence of investors well-founded or misplaced? It is understandable, up to a point. Chinese companies have faced scrutiny thanks to the short sellers, and those still standing are seen to be strong. Investors can also be excused for tuning out the regulatory dispute over auditors – it has rumbled on for two years and could well continue for another two.但是,投资者的记忆通常不会很长久,这次也不例外。对于在美上市中国公司的质量及其跨境上市法律地位的担忧,已经像索契的积雪那样快速融化。在美国交易的中国股票已经反弹,市场已对新股重新开放。投资者再度展现的信心有没有道理?这种信心在一定程度上是可以理解的。由于卖空者的出现,中国企业近年受到严密关注,其结果是,幸存者被视为是强大的。投资者也有理由不去理会围绕审计机构的监管纠纷——这起纠纷已经闹了两年,很可能还会再持续两年。
Nevertheless, just because the audit dispute has dragged on for so long does not mean it will end well. Events in the past month point to a hardening of attitudes on both the Chinese and US sides that could put US-listed Chinese companies back on the endangered list.然而,仅仅因为这场审计纠纷已经拖许久,不代表它就会有好结局。过去一个月发生的事情显示中美双方的态度都在转硬,这可能使在美上市的中国公司再度被列入濒危名单。
The turnround in these companies’ status from market darlings to pariahs and back again has been dizzying. Their share prices soared in the US in 2009 and 2010 – what better way to play the China growth story than get direct exposure to its companies, or so it seemed.这些企业从市场宠儿被贬为贱民,现在又再度受到追捧,这其中的过程令人头晕目眩。它们在美国的股价曾在2009年和2010年出现飙升——要从中国经济增长的故事中获利,还有什么方式比直接投资于中国企业更好呢?至少看起来如此。
The music stopped when short sellers, led by Muddy Waters, published scathing reports alleging fraud at a series of the companies. The worst were those that had gone public via reverse mergers, a way to avoid the rigours of a formal share offering. With investors suddenly mindful of their flimsy foundations, Chinese reverse merger stocks lost more than 60 per cent in 2011.终结这场盛宴的是,以浑水公司(Muddy Waters)为首的卖空者发表措辞严厉的报告,声称一连串公司有欺诈行为。最糟糕的是那些借壳上市(避免正式发股上市严格程序的一种方式)的企业。在投资者突然意识到借壳上市的中国企业根基脆弱之后,这些公司的股价在2011年下跌超过60%。
The scrutiny soon spread to US-listed Chinese stocks as a whole. While investigating the frauds, the US Securities and Exchange Commission hit a regulatory impasse that remains unresolved to this day.人们关注的范围很快蔓延到在美国上市的全部中国股票。在调查欺诈的过程中,美国证券交易委员会(SEC)遭遇了至今仍未解决的一个监管僵局。
The SEC demanded access to audit working papers in China, but the Chinese arms of international auditors refused to hand them over, saying that doing so would violate China’s state secrecy laws. But the SEC charged the auditors with securities violations for failing to comply with US requirements. The auditors have until this week to appeal. With no resolution in sight, investors are braced for the mass delisting of Chinese companies from US markets.美国证交会要求得到中国的审计底稿,但各大国际审计机构的中国分支拒绝交出这些文件,称这么做将违反中国的保密法律。但美国证交会指控审计机构未能遵守美国的要求,违反了证券法规。审计机构最迟可在本周提出上诉。在看不到解决办法的情况下,投资者准备迎接中国上市公司从美国股市大批退市。
Yet against all odds, Chinese groups have clawed their way back into fashion. Eight Chinese companies went public in the US last year, and most delivered share price gains of more than 10 per cent on their debuts. Dozens more are queueing up to float this year. The 55 biggest Chinese stocks listed in the US climbed 18 per cent over the past two years, according to a Bloomberg index.然而,面对这一切不利因素,在美上市的中国企业竟然再度受到追捧。去年有8家中国公司在美国上市,其中大部分在交易首日上涨10%以上。另有数十家公司在排队,争取今年在美国上市。根据彭博(Bloomberg)的一个指数,在美国上市的55只最大中国股票的股价在过去两年里上涨18%。
What explains this recovery? The overall quality of Chinese companies on the US market is certainly better than in the past.如何解释这种复苏?在美国上市的中国公司的整体质量肯定比过去更好。
However, investors are also heavily discounting two uncomfortable possibilities. First, the regulatory dispute that began in 2012 could turn uglier yet. An SEC administrative judge ordered in January that the Chinese arms of the Big Four auditing firms should be suspended for six months.然而,投资者没有认真重视两个令人不安的可能性。首先,始于2012年的监管纠纷可能会进一步恶化。1月,美国证交会的一名行政法官下令暂停四大审计机构中国分支在美国提供审计服务6个月。
While that decision may be held up for two years because of appeals, the past two years give little ground for optimism that the Chinese and US regulators will reach a compromise. The US is still demanding access to Chinese auditing papers. China is still insisting they are state secrets.虽然这一决定可能被拖延两年,以便完成上诉程序,但过去两年的情况让人很难对中国和美国监管机构达成妥协感到乐观。美方仍坚持要求获得中国的审计底稿,而中方仍坚称底稿是国家机密。
Second, the audit dispute is also a reminder of the legal dodge that underpins the most popular Chinese stocks in the US markets. Because of restrictions on foreign investment in the Chinese internet sector, China’s tech companies have listed in the US as “variable interest entities”. US shareholders are tied to these companies through contractual obligations – loan agreements, for example – rather than as their actual owners. This has been a clever structure for working around China’s rules. Yet it is also one that can crumble apart under pressure, whether because a Chinese company chooses to ignore the agreement or because the Chinese regulator decides it has had enough of the ruse.其次,审计纠纷也提醒人们,在美国上市的一些最受欢迎的中国股票在法律上打擦边球。因为中国对互联网行业的外国投资实行限制,中国高科技公司在美国上市的是“可变利益实体”(variable interest entities,VIE)。美国股东与这些公司之间的关系属于合同义务(比如贷款协议),而不是作为企业的实际拥有者。这是一个规避中国规则的巧妙架构。然而,这种架构也可能在压力之下崩溃——要么是因为中国公司选择忽略协议,要么是因为中国监管机构认为自己受够了这种诡计。
Investors everywhere are in the business of taking risks. But investing in US-listed Chinese companies remains a particularly risky business.无论在什么地方,承担风险都是投资者的“天职”。但投资于在美国上市的中国公司仍是一件特别危险的事。

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