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西方误判乌克兰形势的原因

发布者: sunny214 | 发布时间: 2014-3-7 13:00| 查看数: 830| 评论数: 0|

The U.S. ambassador was waiting in the office of then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in November, anxious for a decision that would cinch closer ties with the West, when he ran across a staffer bearing unwelcome news.
去年11月,美国驻乌克兰大使正在时任乌克兰总统的亚努科维奇(Viktor Yanukovych)办公室里,焦急地等待一个有望拉近乌克兰与西方关系的决定,然而他等来的却是一名带来坏消息的工作人员。
'I can't believe it. I just came from seeing the president. He's told me we're going put the European project on pause,' Mr. Yanukovych's chief of staff, Serhiy Lyovochkyn told U.S. Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt, according to a person who was present.
据当时在场的一位人士说,亚努科维奇办公室主任列沃奇金(Serhiy Lyovochkyn)对美国大使皮亚特(Geoffrey Pyatt)表示,他不敢相信,他刚刚见过总统,总统告诉他,乌克兰将暂时搁置拟议的欧洲协定。
The ambassador asked how the president intended to explain the turn-about to 46 million Ukrainians expecting a new pact with the European Union.
皮亚特问,亚努科维奇总统计划如何向4,600万期待与欧盟(European Union)达成新协定的乌克兰人解释这一突然变故。
'I have no idea,' Mr. Lyovochkyn said. '. . . I don't think they have a Plan B unless it's a dacha on the outskirts of Moscow.'
列沃奇金称,他也不知道。他表示,他认为乌克兰没有备选方案,除非是莫斯科郊外的一座别墅。
The exchange made clear the U.S. would have to come up with its own Plan B. For the previous two years, the Obama administration had sought to let Europe take the lead in guiding the westward political and economic drift of the former Soviet republic, with the U.S. in a supporting role.
这番对话明确显示出,美国将不得不拿出自己的备选方案。在那之前的两年时间中,奥巴马政府曾力求让欧洲在指引这个前苏联加盟共和国的政治和经济西化过程中扮演主角,而由美国担任配角。
Now, the U.S. has been drawn front and center at far more difficult time -- after blood has been shed, battle-lines drawn and Russian ire provoked.
如今,流血事件已经发生,战争一触即发,俄罗斯人已被激怒,在这种更加棘手的时刻,美国被推到了前面。
Locked today in the very East-West standoff the administration had hoped to avoid. 'The U.S. is now in the lead,' a senior U.S. official said.
眼下乌克兰恰恰陷入了奥巴马政府曾希望避免的东西对峙局面。一位高级美国官员说,美国如今成为主角。
Many European diplomats felt that while the U.S. portrayed itself as acting tough in recent weeks, the Americans had left them alone on the Ukraine issue for far too long, preferring to prioritize Washington's own ties with Moscow.
很多欧洲外交人士感觉,尽管在外界看来美国近几周采取了强硬行动,但美国人让他们独自应对乌克兰问题的时间太久,美国更倾向于优先考虑自己与俄罗斯的关系。
The White House decision to rely on Europe to cement ties with Ukraine was shaped by a foreign-policy doctrine meant to give international partners more responsibility for the world's challenges, U.S. officials said. By sharing responsibilities, these officials said, the U.S. could focus on issues at home after more than a decade of costly wars abroad.
美国官员称,白宫决定依靠欧洲来增强与乌克兰的关系,是因为一项意在让国际伙伴在面临诸多全球挑战时担负起更多责任的外交政策。这些官员表示,通过分担责任,美国在经历10多年耗资不菲的海外战争后可以专注于国内事务。
There also was initial skepticism within the Obama administration that Mr. Yanukovych was serious about moving toward Europe. Few administration policy makers believed Ukraine should be an American responsibility because the issue was more important to Russia and Europe than to the U.S.
奥巴马政府内部最初也有人怀疑亚努科维奇是否真的想与欧洲拉近关系。政府决策者中几乎没有人认为乌克兰应该是美国的一项责任,因为乌克兰问题对俄罗斯和欧洲比对美国更重要。
Strategically, the Obama administration decided to take a back seat to Europe because of concerns that assuming the lead in Ukraine might backfire if Russia saw the European Union pact as a part of a superpower 'Great Game' competition.
从战略上讲,奥巴马政府决定把主导权让给欧洲,是因为担心如果俄罗斯把欧盟协定看作是大国“大博弈”竞争的一部分的话,在乌克兰事件上冲在前面可能会祸及自身。
Even with Russian troops streaming into Crimea, administration officials said Monday it wasn't clear if the outcome would have been any different had the U.S. taken a bigger role from the start. 'The truth is Yanukovych left, and the new government is much more Western leaning. This is not a win for Russia,' a senior administration official said.
即便是在俄罗斯的军队不断进入克里米亚之际,美国政府官员周一仍表示,如果美国从一开始就起到更大的作用,也不知道结果是否会有所不同。美国政府一名高官说,真相是,亚努科维奇离开了,新政府远比旧政府更亲西方;对俄罗斯来说,这可不是一个胜利。
Talks between the EU and Ukraine date to the breakup of the Soviet Union, but in recent years have focused on the economic and political pact known as Association Agreement. In 2012, Ukraine and the EU initialed an agreement that, once final, would draw them closer.
欧盟和乌克兰之间的对话可以追溯到乌克兰从苏联分离出来的时候,但近年来,两者之间的会谈一直聚焦于经济和政治协定,也就是“联系国协定”(Association Agreement)。2012年,乌克兰和欧盟倡议签署一项协定,如果这项协定最终签署,将令两者关系更加紧密。
The U.S. thought the Ukrainian leader might be bluffing until mid-2013, when Mr. Yanukovych began taking more concrete steps. 'Whoa. If they're actually moving to Europe, we better make sure it succeeds,' a senior Obama administration official described the thinking at the time.
美国此前认为亚努科维奇可能是在虚张声势,直到2013年年中他开始采取更加具体的措施,方才改变了看法。奥巴马政府一名高官这样描述美国政府当时的想法:如果乌克兰真的要走近欧洲的话,美国最好确保它能成功。
To bring Mr. Yanukovych closer to the West without provoking Russia, the U.S. and the EU settled on a division of labor, U.S. and European officials said. 'We wanted the Europeans to bring him to Europe,' the senior administration official said. 'Our part of it was to make sure he could actually get there without the Russians crashing his economy.'
美国和欧洲的官员们称,为了拉近亚努科维奇与西方的关系,同时又不触怒俄罗斯,美国和欧盟决定分工合作。前述奥巴马政府高官说,美国想要欧洲人把亚努科维奇带到欧洲,而美国的任务是确保他真的能够走到这一步,同时俄罗斯又不会摧毁乌克兰的经济。
The EU's job was to get the pact signed by a November 2013 deadline. The U.S. would work with the International Monetary Fund to get Kiev to agree to tough economic reforms.
欧盟的任务是争取在2013年11月的最后期限前签署协定。美国将与国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)合作,让基辅同意进行艰难的经济改革。
The last thing the Obama administration wanted was another flashpoint with Russia. Relations between the two countries were already fraught over Russian President Vladimir Putin's support for the Assad regime in Syria and the decision to grant asylum to alleged National Security Agency leaker Edward Snowden.
奥巴马政府最不愿看到的事就是让乌克兰成为美俄关系的另外一个引爆点。美俄关系已经问题重重,一方面俄罗斯总统普京(Vladimir Putin)支持叙利亚的阿萨德政权,另一方面俄罗斯还决定向美国国家安全局(National Security Agency)泄密者斯诺登(Edward Snowden.)提供庇护。
Russia began pressuring Ukraine to resist the pact by reducing Russian imports from Ukraine during the first three months of 2013. Russia followed with a targeted trade war to hurt Ukrainian oligarchs who favored European engagement.
在2013年头三个月里,俄罗斯开始通过削减进口自乌克兰的商品向乌克兰施压,要求其拒绝签署协定。接着,俄罗斯又针对主张与欧洲接触的乌克兰寡头政治集团打响了贸易战。
Unease was growing within the U.S. administration. The EU wasn't paying enough attention to Kiev's economic troubles and pressure from Russia, government analysts privately warned policy makers, U.S. officials said.
美国政府内部的不安情绪也一直在增长。美国官员称,政府分析人士私下里警告政策制定者说,对基辅的经济困境和来自俄罗斯方面的压力,欧盟没有给予足够的注意。
Anxiety in Brussels surfaced in September, when Armenia, which had negotiated a similar trade and political deal with the EU, backed out and instead pledged to join the Russian customs union under pressure from Moscow.
去年9月份,欧盟的紧张情绪开始表露出来,当时,曾与欧盟进行就一项类似的贸易和政治协定进行谈判亚美尼亚决定退出,同时在莫斯科的压力下承诺加入俄罗斯关税同盟。
EU officials saw Armenia, which also faced economic and political pressure from Russia, as a warning sign and stepped up contacts with Ukraine. EU leaders expressed confidence a deal would be signed, believing Mr. Yanukovych wouldn't reverse course after coming this far.
欧盟的官员们认为,亚美尼亚――该国也面临着来自俄罗斯的经济和政治压力――是一个警讯,于是加紧了与乌克兰联络的步伐。欧盟领导者曾表示,有信心签署协定,他们认为,亚努科维奇已经走了这么远,不会再改弦更张了。
EU officials told their U.S. counterparts in the fall that the EU would start providing direct assistance after the deal was signed, buying more time for the U.S. to work with Ukraine on meeting the IMF's terms, U.S. officials said.
美方官员称,去年秋天欧盟官员告知他们,签署联系国协定之后欧盟将开始向乌克兰提供直接援助,为美国帮助乌克兰达到IMF的要求争取更多时间。
At an October meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States in Minsk, Mr. Yanukovych made his last strong defense of the European pact. He also had a brief meeting with Mr. Putin that day, and U.S. officials believe that was when a more forceful Russian campaign began.
去年10月在白俄罗斯首都明斯克举行的独联体国鲜花首会议上,亚努科维奇最后一次为与欧盟签署协定做了强有力的辩护。当日,他还与普京举行了一次简短会晤,美方官员相信就是从那时候起俄罗斯开始向乌克兰施加更大压力。
European divisions over Ukraine, with EU member states worried about antagonizing Russia, weakened the bloc's ability to influence Kiev's decisions, some diplomats aid. Many member states believed the roadblock to a final agreement wasn't Russian pressure, but Kiev's refusal to meet European demands that it release -- at least temporarily -- imprisoned former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko to receive medical treatment in Berlin.
一些外交人士说,欧洲内部在乌克兰问题上的分歧也削弱了欧盟对乌克兰决定的影响力,因为一些欧盟成员国担心会惹恼俄罗斯。许多欧盟国家认为,未能签署联系国协定的根本障碍不在于俄罗斯的压力,而是乌克兰拒绝(至少是暂时性的)欧洲提出的让在狱中服刑的乌克兰前总理季莫申科(Yulia Tymoshenko)到柏林接受治疗的要求。
U.S. officials believe Russian officials persuaded Mr. Yanukovych to finally reverse course in a series of meetings in Sochi in early November.
美国官员认为,去年11月初在索契举行的一系列会晤中,俄罗斯官员劝说亚努科维奇彻底放弃“西进”策略。
In one of those meetings, the Russians presented the Ukrainian delegation with a dossier spelling out potential damage to Ukraine's economy if they moved ahead with the EU agreement, Mr. Yanukovych's advisers told U.S. officials. The dossier, U.S. officials said, set out specific financial losses and percentage declines in such sectors as aerospace and defense.
亚努科维奇的顾问向美方官员表示,在其中某次会议上俄方给乌克兰代表团看了一份材料,说明了乌方如果继续推进与欧盟的联系国协定,该国经济可能受到的损害。美方官员说,材料列出了具体的财政损失以及航天、国防等行业可能受到的冲击。
While top European officials were meeting almost weekly with their Ukrainian counterparts, the U.S. had little in the way of high-level contacts.
虽然欧洲高层官员几乎每周都与乌克兰官员进行会晤,但美方没有与乌克兰有过高层接触。
But on November 18, a few days after Amb. Pyatt's unexpected conversation with Mr. Lyovochkyn in the presidential office complex in Kiev, Vice President Joe Biden called Mr. Yanukovych, suggesting the U.S. could help counter Mr. Putin's offer.
但是在去年11月18日,也就是派亚特与Lyovochkyn在基辅的总统办公室意外进行交谈几天后,美国副总统拜登(Joe Biden)给亚努科维奇打了电话,表示美国可以帮助乌克兰抵御来自普京的压力。
Mr. Biden, during a visit to Ukraine in 2009, had gotten along well with Mr. Yanukovych, a senior administration official said, with Ukraine president responding to Mr. Biden's blunt style.
一位高层官员说,拜登曾在2009年访问过乌克兰,与亚努科维奇相谈甚欢。拜登直率的风格很受亚努科维奇的欢迎。
Mr. Biden's message was that the U.S. was prepared to work with both the IMF and the EU 'to deliver the support Ukraine needed to get through the economic troubles,' said a senior administration official briefed on the call, which Mr. Biden made while visiting Houston.
一位高层官员透露,拜登在访问休斯顿时与亚努科维奇进行了这次通话,拜登传递出的信息是,美国准备与IMF和欧盟合作,向乌克兰提供度过经济难关的必要支持。
Mr. Yanukovych didn't respond to the appeal. On Nov. 21, the Ukrainian government announced it was putting the EU deal was on hold, blaming the EU for failing to offer enough economic support.
亚努科维奇没有回应美方递出的橄榄枝。2013年11月21日,乌克兰政府宣布搁置与欧盟的联系国协定,并将责任推到欧盟不愿意向乌克兰提供足够经济支持上面。
U.S. officials said they believed Mr. Yanukovych was looking for the easiest way to raise cash, regardless of the strings attached. U.S. and the EU officials said they weren't prepared to match the $15 billion loan package from Moscow.
美国官员们表示,他们相信亚努科维奇正在寻找最简单的融资方式,无论附加条件如何。美国和欧盟官员们表示,他们并不准备提供更多贷款以便与俄罗斯开出的150亿美元相匹敌。
U.S. officials tried to convince Mr. Yanukovych it was a bad deal. Moscow offered Ukraine cheap natural gas for three months. After that, prices would rise and Ukraine would be required to buy more, increasing the country's dependence on Russia.
美国官员试图说服亚努科维奇这是一笔糟糕的交易。俄罗斯将在三个月的时间内向乌克兰供应低价天然气。之后,供应价格将上调,而且乌克兰将被要求增加购买量,从而加重对俄罗斯的依赖。
In his calls, Mr. Biden warned the besieged Ukrainian leader that he was 'behind the curve' and putting himself in an 'impossible position,' said a senior administration official briefed on the call.
一位了解电话内容的高级行政官员表示,拜登在电话中警告亚努科维奇说,他的行动滞后,将自己置身绝境。
U.S. officials said Mr. Yanukovych was responsive at times, reversing some of the government's anti-protest laws after one of Mr. Biden's calls. 'But it would always be grudging and halfhearted and too late,' a senior administration official said.
美国官员称,亚努科维奇有时会做出回应,有一次他在接到拜登的电话后取消了政府反抗议法的部分内容。但一位高级行政官员称,他的回应总是十分勉强、三心二意、拖拖拉拉。
In Washington, Mr. Biden pushed to 'wield the threat of sanctions' if Mr. Yanukovich decided to crack down on protesters, a messeage the vice president conveyed directily in a Dec. 6 call. But the Europeans were torn, arguing against the risk of backing the Ukrainian leader into a corner.
拜登在华盛顿提出,如果亚努科维奇决定镇压抗议者,将对其实施制裁;他在12月6日的电话中直接传达了这一信息。但欧洲内部意见不一,反对冒险将亚努科维奇逼入绝境。
U.S., officials said the tipping point came on Jan. 16, when Mr. Yanukovych pushed laws that effectively banned peaceful protests and outlawed opposition group activities. State Department officials and intelligence analysts warned the White House that Ukraine could be engulfed in civil war.
美国官员称,转折点出现在1月16日,当时亚努科维奇正在推进的法律实际上禁止和平抗议、宣布所有反对派活动违法。美国国务院官员和情报分析专家警告白宫称,乌克兰可能会卷入内战。
In the last week of January, at a Situation Room meeting at the White House, Mr. Biden urged the administration to spell out in more detail what financial aid would be provided if Mr. Yanukovych and the opposition cut a deal, said U.S. officials briefed on the session. Mr. Biden was backed by Secretary of State John Kerry, officials said, and President Barack Obama agreed.
美国官员称,1月份最后一周,在白宫战情室(Situation Room)召开的会议上,拜登敦促美国政府明确,如果亚努科维奇与反对派达成协议,美国将提供怎样的金融救助。官员们称,拜登的立场得到美国国务卿(Secretary of State)克里(John Kerry)的支持,也得到美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)的认同。
A few days later, Mr. Kerry huddled with senior European officials on the sidelines of a security conference in Munich and delivered Mr. Obama's message: Get money ready, according to officials briefed on the discussions.
了解相关讨论的官员称,几天后,克里在慕尼黑召开的安全会议间隙与欧洲高级官员碰面,并传达了奥巴马的意见:准备好钱。
In February, EU foreign ministers closed ranks with the U.lS., saying they would respond quickly if the situation deteriorated, and, later, agreeing on sanctions.
2月份,欧盟外交部长与美国达成共识,称如果局势恶化他们将迅速采取行动,稍后他们通过了制裁决定。
Mr. Kerry was in Paris in the third week of February for meetings when his French, German and Polish counterparts decided to fly to Kiev to try to broker a deal between Mr. Yanukovych and opposition leaders. The U.S. was skeptical, but Mr. Kerry and Mr. Biden agreed to help behind the scenes.
2月份第三周,克里在巴黎参加会议,当时法国、德国和波兰的外长决定飞往基辅,促成亚努科维奇与反对派领导人之间的协议。美国对此表示怀疑,但克里和拜登同意在幕后提供支持。
In the end, U.S. officials said, they believed Mr. Yanukovych got cold feet about the power-sharing proposals, and the he disappeared. Many street protesters, meanwhile, resented the U.S. for saying it wanted to work with Mr. Yanukovych instead of booting him.
最后,美国官员称,他们相信亚努科维奇对权力分享提议感到惶恐,所以他一走了之。与此同时,很多街头抗议者怨恨美国,因为美国表示希望与亚努科维奇合作,而非让他下台。
The Obama administration is taking the trying ease the standoff with Russia over Ukraine's future. 'We're not putting Europe in the lead on this anymore,' a senior U.S. official said.
奥巴马政府正尝试缓解与俄罗斯在乌克兰未来问题上的僵局。一位美国高级官员表示,这次美国不会再把主导权让给欧洲。

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