A billion-dollar question: Is China on course to roll out more stimulus measures? It's only a matter of time, analysts say.

当前的一个重要问题是中国即将会推出更多刺激措施吗？分析师们认为，这只是时间问题。

A senior official in China Investment Corp., the country's sovereign-wealth fund, cast a vote of confidence in the nation's economy at a Credit Suisse investment conference in Hong Kong . Li Xiaopeng, head of CIC's supervisory board said that although growth in the first quarter appeared sluggish, 'the very real growth takes place in [the second quarter], so don't worry.'

在瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)于香港举行的投资会议上，中国主权财富基金中国投资有限责任公司(China Investment Corp., 简称：中投公司)的监事长李晓鹏为中国经济投下了信任票。李晓鹏表示，虽然第一季度增长显得疲软，但真正的增长出现在第二季度，因此不用担心。

In a media briefing at the same conference, Dong Tao, chief regional economist for non-Japan Asia at Credit Suisse said confidence in the Chinese economy was improving: 'It's almost a market consensus [for a recovery scenario] now.'

瑞信亚洲区（日本除外）首席经济学家陶冬也在此次会议的媒体会上表示，对中国经济的信心正在增强，目前市场几乎一致认为中国经济将会复苏。

'But the implicit assumption is you'll see a sizable government stimulus coming up. But the threshold for this administration to roll out stimulus is much higher than the previous administration,' he said. 'Even if stimulus package is launched, how helpful will that be to the real economy? It's a risk to me.'

但他也说，这一预期隐含的假设是政府将推出大规模的刺激措施，不过本届政府推出刺激措施的门槛要远远高于前一届政府。他还说，即便推出刺激措施，对实体经济将有多大帮助，他还难下定论。

To some, a stimulus program has already started. Five railway projects were recently approved by China's main economic planning agency, while the money market is flooded with cash.

从某种意义上看，政府已推出了刺激计划。中国主要经济规划机构最近批准了五个铁路项目，另外当前货币市场的资金也很充裕。

These signs of stimulus come after a slew of weak economic data so far this year. HSBC's manufacturing index fell to an eight-month low in March, showing a continuous contraction.

在这些出台刺激措施的迹象出现前，今年截至目前中国的一系列经济数据都表现不佳。汇丰(HSBC)中国3月份制造业指数降至八个月低点，表明经济活动持续萎缩。

Mr. Tao says lower-profile infrastructure projects that are not widely publicized will be in place to encourage growth in the world's second-biggest economy, and he expects China's central bank to cut in the required reserve ratio for lenders, loosening monetary policy. However, the People's Bank of China is still working hard to keep credit conditions tight in a bid to overhaul the financial system.

陶冬说，一些未被大肆宣传、比较低调的基础设施项目将会上马，以促进经济增长。他预计，中国央行将下调银行存款准备金率以放松货币政策。不过，为了对金融体系进行彻底改革，中国央行仍在努力保持对信贷条件的收紧。

More importantly, China is undergoing a turnaround in its credit cycle. After a decade-long expansion in credit supply, the PBOC is gradually and gently draining liquidity from the market, while the recent decline in banks' short-term borrowing rates is a seasonal factor, Mr. Tao said. Tighter liquidity won't cause much damage to the real economy, he said. 'But it is naive to believe China can deliver reform without paying a price.'

更重要的是，中国正经历信贷周期的转变。陶冬说，在长达10年的信贷扩张之后，中国央行正逐步且和缓地从市场回收流动性，而最近银行短期拆款利率下降是一个季节性因素。他说，收紧流动性不会给实体经济带来太大损害。但陶冬说，如果认为中国可以不付出代价地进行改革，则未免过于天真。

So now, the next billion-dollar question: Can China achieve 7.5% GDP growth target this year?

所以，接下来的一个重要问题是：中国今年能实现7.5%的经济增长目标吗？

Mr. Tao's answer: There are certainly risks. 'But should there be no spilling over to possible social unrest, that shouldn't be too much a worry of the government,' he says.

陶冬的回答是：显然存在风险。但他说，只要不引发社会动荡，政府就不会有太多担心。