Faced with the reality that Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 came down in a remote part of the Indian Ocean, investigators now have one pivotal question: Where?

面对马来西亚航空公司(Malaysia Airlines) 370航班坠落于印度洋某遥远海域的现实，调查人员现在需要搞清楚的一个关键问题是：这片海域到底是哪里？

Oceanographers are central to solving that puzzle. Their understanding of ocean dynamics can enable investigators to locate the plane's wreckage and with it the black box, which contains vital clues as to what befell the doomed jetliner.

海洋学家是解开这个谜团的关键人物。他们对海洋动力学的认知能帮助调查人员确定飞机残骸和黑匣子的位置。黑匣子数据会为这架飞机到底发生了什么提供重要线索。

For more than a week, a team of six oceanographers from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, or CSIRO, Australia's national science agency, has been calculating where the wind and ocean currents may have carried debris from Flight 370.

一周多来，一支由澳大利亚国家科研机构联邦科学和工业研究组织(Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization，简称CSIRO)六名海洋学家组成的工作组一直在推测，风力和洋流可能会将370航班的残骸带到哪里。

They are using a technique known as drift modelling, which relies on data from satellites equipped with altimeters, instruments that measure sea levels to an accuracy of 10 centimeters, and buoys, which use telemetry to relay information about sea levels and ocean currents.

他们使用的是漂移建模技术，该技术依赖那些配备了测高仪和浮标的卫星所收集到的数据。测高仪是测量海平面的工具，具体可精确到10厘米，而浮标则利用遥感勘测来传输有关海平面和洋流的信息。

By measuring sea levels, the scientists can map the ocean's contours to build a detailed picture of the marine landscape. Far from having a uniformly flat surface, 'the ocean consists of mounds and troughs,' said David Griffin, leader of the CSIRO team. 'These highs and lows can have a radius of 50 to 100 kilometers.'

通过测量海平面，科学家可以绘制出相关海域的等值线图，进而制作出海洋地形详图。CSIRO工作组的组长格里芬(David Griffin)表示，与通常平坦的海面不同，海洋底部有许多山丘和低谷，这些山丘和低谷的半径可达50至100公里。

Objects carried in the water, such as aircraft debris, naturally travel along the low contours -- which essentially serve as marine highways -- and around the oceanic mounds, he continued. 'Effectively any debris would follow the contours,' he said.

格里芬接着说，落入水中的物体（例如飞机残骸）通常会沿低等值线（好比海底高速公路）和围绕海底山丘运动。他称，实际上任何残骸都会沿等值线运行。

Even the storms that forced the suspension of search operations Tuesday do not affect the team's drift models, Dr. Griffin said, since objects would still stick to the low contours, though they may travel much more quickly in strong winds.

格里芬表示，即使是导致周二搜索行动暂停的暴风雨也不会影响工作组的漂移模型，因为物体仍会沿低等值线运动，只是在强风影响下物体运行的速度可能快得多。

The oceanographers have used the data from the drift models to construct a dynamic, moving map of the sea that allows them to visualize how the marine highways might have moved since the day of the crash on March 8. They can then effectively rewind the journey taken by any debris they find and trace its route back along the marine troughs to its point of origin -- the crash site.

通过基于漂流模型的数据建立的动态洋流图，海洋学家们能观测出3月8日坠机以来快速洋流可能的运动轨迹，进而有效地对疑似残骸的漂流轨迹进行逆向推导，并沿着轨迹找到其最初的海域，也就是坠机海域。

There's just one problem: So far no debris from Flight 370 has been recovered.

唯一的问题是目前还未真正找到370客机的任何残骸。

All the team has to go on at the moment, said Dr. Griffin, are pixelated satellite images of objects that may just be flotsam unrelated to Flight 370.

格里芬说，当前搜救行动依靠的全部线索是像素化的卫星图像所呈现的物体，而这些物体很可能是与飞机无关的海洋垃圾。

Rewinding the routes these objects took has nonetheless yielded positive results.

尽管如此，对这些物体漂流路径的逆推工作已经取得了积极进展。

The objects came from an area very close to where Inmarsat satellite data put the plane on the day of last contact, Dr. Griffin said, referring to the U.K.-based satellite company whose information was used to track the aircraft to its final point somewhere in the Indian Ocean.

格里芬说，这些物体的最初海域，与Inmarsat卫星数据在最后一次取得联系的当天所确定的客机位置非常接近。根据英国Inmarsat公司卫星数据的追踪，飞机最后坠毁在印度洋的某片海域。

That means investigators already know roughly where Flight 370 came down -- but the area is far from small or specific. Now, 19 days after Flight 370 was lost, Dr. Griffin and his team are 'looking at maps of debris possibly over hundreds of kilometers,' he said.

这意味着调查人员已经知道MH370航班大致是在何处坠海的，但这个区域范围不小，也并不具体。如今，在MH370航班失联19天后，格里芬说，他和他的团队正在考察的残骸地图可能对应长达数百公里的海域。

Time is not on their side.

而他们时间紧迫。

'You can really only follow things with any certainty for a couple of weeks. We're getting to the end now of the time when you can backtrack to the original location,' explained Dr. Griffin.

格里芬解释说，疑似残骸的有效搜索时间其实只有几周，超过这个时间就无法由碎片反推到飞机坠落地点，所以时间已经不多了。

The search teams scouring the southern Indian Ocean for traces of the Malaysia Airlines plane need to find some debris conclusively linked to it very soon, otherwise the oceanography team will no longer be able to apply their model and calculate where the plane ended up.

在印度洋南部海域搜寻马航失联客机的搜索团队需要很快找到一些与飞机有确定关系的残骸，否则海洋科学团队将无法运用他们的模型，计算出飞机最终坠入了哪里。

Without their help it could take months, or even years, to pinpoint the wreckage.

若没有他们的帮助，可能需要数月甚至数年的时间才能确定残骸的位置。