Humans are a tough and adaptable species. People live on the equator and in the Arctic, in the desert and in the rainforest. We survived the ice ages with primitive technologies. The idea that climate change poses an existential threat to humankind is laughable.

人类是一个坚强而又有适应能力的物种。在赤道地区和北极圈，在沙漠中和热带雨林里，人们都能生活。我们靠着原始的技术手段在冰河时代生存了下来。认为气候变化对人类生存构成威胁的观点简直令人发笑。

Climate change will have consequences, of course. Since different plants and animals thrive in different climates, it will affect natural ecosystems and agriculture. Warmer and wetter weather will advance the spread of tropical diseases. Seas will rise, putting pressure on all that lives on the coast. These impacts sound alarming but they need to be put in perspective before we draw conclusions about policy.

当然，气候变化将导致一系列后果。由于不同种类的动植物适应不同的气候条件，气候变化将影响自然生态系统以及农业生产。更加温暖潮湿的气候将加剧热带疾病的传播。海平面将会升高，对所有在沿海地区生活的人们构成威胁。这些影响听起来令人惊恐，但在我们就应采取的政策做出结论之前，必须对这些影响形成正确的认识。

According to yesterday’s[FOR ONLINE: MONDAY’S ] report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a further warming of 2C could cause losses equivalent to 0.2-2 per cent of world gross domestic product. On current trends, that level of warming would happen some time in the second half of the 21st century. In other words, half a century of climate change is about as bad as losing one year of economic growth.

联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC)周一发布的报告指出，气温进一步升高2摄氏度，可能导致相当于全球GDP的0.2%至2%的损失。按照当前的趋势，这种程度的气候变暖可能在21世纪下半叶发生，换句话说，气候变化半个世纪所造成的影响，相当于损失一年的全球经济增长成果。

Since the start of the crisis in the eurozone, the income of the average Greek has fallen more than 20 per cent. Climate change is not, then, the biggest problem facing humankind. It is not even its biggest environmental problem. The World Health Organisation estimates that about 7m people are now dying each year as a result of air pollution. Even on the most pessimistic estimates, climate change is not expected to cause loss of life on that scale for another 100 years.

自欧元区危机爆发以来，希腊人均收入的下降幅度超过了20%。因此，气候变化并不是人类所面临的最严重问题，甚至算不上是最严峻的环境问题。据世界卫生组织(World Health Organisation)估计，目前每年大约有700万人因空气污染死亡。而即便按照最悲观的估计，气候变化在未来的100年中也不会导致这种规模的人口死亡。

Rising temperatures may even be beneficial at first. Many more people die in unusually cold winters than in unusually hot summers. Carbon dioxide helps plants grow, and higher ambient concentrations make them less thirsty. These benefits are rapidly outweighed by the harm that occurs as warming becomes more pronounced, and are probably gone with a 2C rise. Incremental impacts turn negative once temperatures rise by about 1C – a level that seems unavoidable regardless of what we do with greenhouse gas emissions.

气温上升最初甚至可能带来有利影响。在异常严寒的冬季丧生的人数，远远超过在异常炎热的夏季死亡的人数。二氧化碳有助于植物生长，更高的环境二氧化碳浓度则使植物不那么缺水。随着气候变暖变得更加明显，负面效应随之产生，并且很快就超过前述正面效应，而当气温升高2摄氏度以后，正面效应可能完全消失。当气温升幅达到约1摄氏度的时候，其所带来的影响将转为负面——而这一气温升幅几乎是无法避免的，无论我们在温室气体排放方面采取什么措施。

Climate change is complex and its impacts more so. We have limited knowledge of the consequences of the modest change that has occurred in the past. There is even more uncertainty about the effects of the rapid change expected in the future.

气候变化是一个复杂的问题，其所造成的影响则更加复杂。对于过去发生的温和气候变化所产生的影响，我们仅有有限的认识。至于未来预计将会出现的快速气候变化，其将导致的后果存在更多不确定性。

Poorer countries – which are more dependent on agriculture and tend to be in hotter places – are much more vulnerable to climate change. If Britain’s climate becomes more like Spain’s, it can copy that country’s regime of siestas, late dinners and houses that keep the heat out. But hotter places will need to invent new coping mechanisms from scratch. They are also likely to have fewer resources, and may not have access to the needed technologies.

低收入国家更加依赖农业并且通常分布在气温较高地区，因此更容易受到气候变化的影响。如果英国的气候变得更像西班牙，英国可以照搬西班牙的午休制度，将晚餐时间推迟，并效仿建造能阻隔高温的西班牙式建筑。但气温较高的地区则必须从零开始，研发新的高温应对机制。这些国家所拥有的资源也可能较为有限，并可能缺乏获取所需技术的渠道。

To protect London against the rising sea, the Thames Barrier will need to be replaced. This is expensive but it will be done. Bangladesh is also vulnerable to a rise in the sea level; it has a hard time coping even with current floods. However, it is about as poor as another low-lying, densely populated country was a century and a half ago when it started its first big flood-safety programme – the Netherlands. It did so because it had a strong government capable of decisive action. As long as that is lacking in Bangladesh, the country will be vulnerable to climate change. But its core problem is political.

为保护伦敦不受海平面上升影响，必须替换泰晤士河水闸(Thames Barrier)。这是一项耗费不菲的工程，但它肯定能够完成。孟加拉国同样容易受到海平面上升影响；但该国应对当前的洪水问题已经颇为艰难。而在150年前，有一个同样地处低海拔地区、人口稠密的国家，在和目前的孟加拉国几乎一样贫穷的条件下，开始修建首个大型防洪工程——这个国家就是荷兰。荷兰做到了这一点，是因为它拥有一个有能力采取果断行动的强势政府。只要孟加拉国缺乏这样的政府，就将继续受到气候变化的威胁。孟加拉国的核心问题就在政治。

Malaria is another example. It was once endemic in Europe and North America. But clouds of pesticide killed the mosquitoes, and draining of inland wetlands reduced their habitat. Today malaria is confined to poor countries. Climate change will make the disease worse. Economic growth will make it go away.

疟疾是另一个例子。这种疾病曾经是欧洲和北美的流行病。但人们通过大量喷洒杀虫剂杀死了蚊虫，通过排干内陆湿地减少了蚊虫的栖居地。如今疟疾只存在于低收入国家。气候变化或将加剧疾疫传播，经济发展则能使这种疾病消失。

In the worst case, climate change could cut crop yields in Africa in half. Yet yields would increase tenfold – in the same climate, on the same soil – if subsistence farmers started using crops and techniques pioneered on experimental farms. Climate change may be a big issue in Africa. But it is not nearly as important as lack of tenure, poor roads, roving warlords and so on.

在最糟糕的情况下，气候变化可能导致非洲地区的农作物收成减半。但如果勉强糊口的农民开始采用实验农场中率先试用的作物品种和种植技术，在同样的气候和土壤条件下，收成可能增长为原来的十倍。气候变化在非洲或许是一个大问题，但它远不及土地使用权得不到保障、道路条件恶劣以及军阀四处肆虐等问题重要。

Cutting emissions is not the only way to reduce the impacts of climate change. Adaptation and development are alternatives. But these trade-offs are rarely discussed. More than 15 per cent of all development aid is now spent on attempts to prevent climate change. Is that the best way to help the intended beneficiaries? Or does it reflect the donors’ priorities?

减少温室气体排放并不是减弱气候变化影响的唯一办法。除此之外通过适应和发展也能解决问题。但人们很少探讨这些折中办法。目前超过15%的发展援助资金被用于预防气候变化的尝试。这是帮助目标受益国的最佳方式吗？还是它反映的是援助国希望优先解决的问题？

None of this is to say that climate change is not a problem that needs to be solved. We cannot let the planet grow warmer and warmer.

这并不是说，气候变化不是一个需要解决的问题。我们不能放任地球的气温变得越来越高。

It will take decades at least before carbon-neutral technologies saturate the market. We had better start now.

碳中和(carbon-neutral)技术渗透市场至少需要几十年的时间。我们最好现在就开始行动。

But emissions reduction is not the only way to keep the impacts of climate change in check. Yesterday’s IPCC report – repeating its prophecies of doom if emissions are not curbed – missed an opportunity to advise policy makers on how to improve lives.

但减少温室气体排放并不是控制气候变化影响的唯一方式。周一公布的IPCC报告再次重复了若不控制温室气体排放就将导致环境灾难的预言，但却错失了一个向政策制定者建议如何改善民众生活的机会。