The confrontation between Russia and the west over Ukraine imperils the Russian economy, but the problem runs both ways. Russia’s pre-existing economic malaise also explains why the country is vulnerable to an international crisis.

俄罗斯与西方围绕乌克兰危机展开较量，这对俄罗斯经济造成了冲击，但这个问题是互为因果的。俄罗斯经济早就萎靡不振，这也解释了该国为何在国际危机面前不堪一击。

The trouble is not the oil price, which for now remains at the high level that has propelled Russia’s economy for the past decade. Rather, the problem is that the Ukraine crisis has arisen just at the moment when economic growth in Russia has come to depend more heavily than ever on capital-intensive industrial investment.

问题不在于油价，目前油价依然高企——过去十年正是高油价推动俄罗斯经济迅速发展。问题在于，乌克兰危机爆发之际，俄罗斯经济增长比以往任何时候更加依赖资本密集型的工业投资。

Put another way, Russia’s present economic problems are structural rather than cyclical, even if some cyclical factors such as recession and stagnation in the eurozone – by far Russia’s largest trading partner – have added to the gloom. Ironically, the European slowdown has dealt a much more serious blow to Ukraine’s economy than to Russia’s, and must be reckoned among the underlying causes of the events that have contributed to the present crisis.

换言之，俄罗斯当前的经济问题是结构性、而非周期性的，虽然欧元区陷入衰退和停滞等一些周期性因素让问题更为恶化——欧元区是俄罗斯最大的贸易伙伴。具有讽刺意味的是，欧洲经济放缓对乌克兰经济的打击远甚于对俄罗斯的打击，这必须被视为引发当前危机的事件的根本原因之一。

Russia needs a new approach if it is to achieve even a fraction of the growth of the past decade, which has averaged 5 per cent a year. Its problem is the inverse of China’s: it needs to move away from consumption and towards investment as the main driver of growth.

俄罗斯哪怕是想实现过去十年增长率（年均增长5%）的几分之一，也需要实施一种新的模式。俄罗斯的问题与中国正好相反：它需要从消费主导模式转向投资主导模式。

The margin of spare capacity left by the post-Soviet collapse is now a thing of the past, and with it has gone the scope for productivity gains on the cheap. With no slack and an exceptionally tight labour market, a bid to increase consumer demand would simply lead to more imports and higher inflation. A return to sustainable growth will require intensive investment in productivity-enhancing capacity.

苏联解体后留下的闲置产能优势现在已经成为明日黄花，俄罗斯已经没有轻松提升生产力的空间。面对闲置产能消失以及劳动力市场异常紧张的局面，增加消费需求的努力只会导致进口增加和通胀上升。要想恢复可持续增长，就需要大举投资于提高生产率的生产能力。

There are two main conditions for attracting such investment. First, there must be a determined effort over several years to improve the business climate. Companies need to be protected from corrupt bureaucrats and predatory law- enforcement agencies. Second, the government needs to maintain a stable macroeconomic and political backdrop. Moscow’s response to the Ukrainian revolution last month clearly damages that backdrop.

吸引此类投资有两个主要条件。首先，未来几年里必须坚决改善企业环境。应当保护企业不受腐败官员和掠夺性执法机构的侵害。其次，俄罗斯政府应当保持一个稳定的宏观经济和政治环境。莫斯科上月对乌克兰革命的反应显然破坏了这种环境。

Russia has long experienced large capital outflows, as people inside the country spirited their wealth overseas. At the same time, it has received healthy flows of foreign direct investment, as foreigners ploughed money into new assets inside the country. Such inflows have amounted to between 3 and 4 per cent of gross domestic product since 2010. This looks like a paradox, but it is easily explained.

俄罗斯早就经历过大规模的资本外流，因为国内民众曾秘密地把财富转移到海外。与此同时，随着外国人大举投资于该国国内的新资产，俄罗斯也获得了大量的外国直接投资。自2010年以来，此类资金流入对俄罗斯国内生产总值(GDP)的比例达到了3%到4%。这看起来有些矛盾，但其实很好解释。

Capital is leaking out of Russia because domestic business owners do not see enough investment projects inside Russia with a sufficiently attractive risk-reward balance. Such attitudes have not been shifted by recent improvements in the business climate (reflected in Russia’s steady ascent in the World Bank’s annual “Doing Business” ranking since 2010). This is not only because the improvements come off such a low base. Other causes are the natural desire to diversify asset portfolios away from Russia, and the reality that the easy returns of a decade ago are now much harder to come by.

资本之所以流出俄罗斯，是因为企业所有者在国内找不到足够多的投资项目，难以实现足够吸引力的风险投资回报。最近企业环境改善——世界银行(World Bank)自2010年以来每年发布的“营商环境”报告显示，俄罗斯排名稳定上升——也没有改变此类观念。这不只是因为俄罗斯原来的营商环境极为糟糕，而且还因为投资者天性希望分散资产投资组合，避免把所有鸡蛋放在俄罗斯这一个篮子里。十年前那种轻松赚钱的日子已经很难再现了。

Yet foreigners have seen Russia in a different light. They are not looking for a quick buck but for strategic investments that will yield normal long-term industrial returns. The legacy of Soviet central planning is that many markets remain undersupplied; western companies are well placed to step into the void. And many executives have seen the Russian market as no more forbidding than many others.

然而，外国人对俄罗斯的看法已然不同。他们并不图赚快钱，而是想通过战略投资，获得正常的长期工业收益率。苏联中央计划经济的遗产是，许多市场依然供应不足；西方公司已准备好填补这一空白。许多高管认为俄罗斯市场已经不比其他市场更令人生畏了。

That is how things stood six short months ago. But the political confrontation with the west following Russia’s annexation of Crimea undermines this investment case. Returns will be impaired by slower growth and a weaker rouble. Fixed capital investment is already falling. Western sanctions will create new risks – even assuming that the economic “nuclear option” of interdicting Russian trade and finance is never exercised.

这是短短6个月前的情况。但俄罗斯在吞并克里米亚之后与西方发生的政治对峙，破坏了这种投资理由。增长放缓和卢布贬值将影响到投资者的收益率。固定资产投资已经在不断下降。西方制裁将导致新的风险，即便假设西方永远不会启动断绝俄罗斯对外贸易和金融联系的经济“核选项”。

Russia will try to replace western customers by tapping Asian demand. The focal point is Gazprom’s long-awaited deal to export piped gas to China. But the China National Petroleum Corporation will exploit Russia’s predicament to drive a hard bargain. President Vladimir Putin may pull some rabbits out of the hat – for example, offering Japan a partial return of the South Kurile Islands in return for large-scale investment into Russia’s far east. But this is no substitute for normal access to international credit and capital markets. The cost of capital will jump and much private credit refinancing will become impossible or prohibitively expensive.

俄罗斯将努力开发亚洲需求以取代西方消费者的需求。这种策略的关键在于，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)能够与中国签署其期待已久的出口管道天然气的协议。但中国石油天然气集团(CNPC)将利用俄罗斯的困境来大幅杀价。俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)可能会有一些绝妙的办法，例如，向日本部分归还南千岛群岛(South Kurile Islands)，以换取日本大规模投资于俄罗斯的远东地区。但这代替不了俄罗斯在国际信贷和资本市场正常融资。资金成本将会飙升，许多私人信贷再融资将变得不可能或极为昂贵。

Russia’s dependence on external sources of long-term finance explains why the economy slumped far more after the financial crisis than any other major oil exporter. Mr Putin understands this. It is likely that we will soon see determined efforts to repair relations with the US and, above all, Europe.

俄罗斯对外部长期融资来源的依赖，解释了该国经济为何在金融危机之后比其他主要石油出口国更为低迷。普京明白这一点。我们很可能很快看到俄罗斯下定决心修复与美国、尤其是修复与欧洲的关系。