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专家解释美国为何不对俄部分领域制裁

发布者: sunny214 | 发布时间: 2014-5-5 12:00| 查看数: 993| 评论数: 0|

U.S. officials discussing the latest actions against Russia boasted to reporters about how effective its sanctions are at beating up the Russian economy, but hedged about how much policy change the measures are causing. And Washington repeatedly threatened, but didn't use, the biggest weapon in its arsenal: sanctions targeting entire sectors of the Russian economy.
参与对俄最新制裁方案讨论的美国官员向记者夸口,制裁措施将有效打击俄罗斯经济。但是对于这些措施将在多大程度上促使俄罗斯调整政策,他们则不愿正面回应。美国屡次威胁要对俄罗斯个别经济部门实施全面制裁,但至今一直未祭出这一“王牌”武器。
There are several reasons why the U.S. wouldn't use the sector sanctions despite admitting its sanctions won't immediately alter the situation on the ground, legal experts said to Risk & Compliance Journal. They noted coordination with European partners, maintaining leverage for future action and the work required to implement the sector-wide measures while mitigating collateral damage to the global economy, among others.
法律专家向Risk & Compliance Journal表示,尽管美国承认目前的制裁措施无法立即扭转局势,但美国不愿实施针对俄罗斯部分经济领域的制裁是有一些原因的,其中包括需要与欧洲方面进行协调、确保未来行动的影响力、针对俄部分行业整体制裁所需的大量准备工作,同时还要减小对全球经济的冲击等。
'This is classic Obama,' said Judith Lee, a partner with Gibson Dunn whose practice focuses on international trade regulation. 'This is incremental and cautious.'
吉布森律师事务所(Gibson Dunn)专攻国际贸易法规的合伙人Judith Lee表示,这是典型的奥巴马(Obama)作风,渐进而谨慎。
During a conference call with reporters, senior administration officials proudly said how the sanctions are already causing economic problems in Russia, noting a rush of capital flowing out of the country, depreciation in currency, lack of investor demand in Russian bonds and the decline in Russian equities. The sanctions announced Monday targeted seven Russian officials and 17 companies Washington said are linked to President Vladimir Putin's inner circle. In addition, the administration said it would restrict licenses for U.S. exports to Russia that involve high-technology products that could contribute to Russia's military capabilities.
在一个与记者的电话沟通会议上,美国政府高级官员得意地表示,制裁措施已经开始给俄罗斯经济造成困难:大批资本逃离该国,卢布贬值,俄罗斯债券乏人问津,股市下跌。在周一宣布的新制裁行动中,美国把目标对准了七位俄罗斯官员和17家美国认为与俄总统普京(Vladimir Putin)内部圈子有关联的企业。此外,美国政府还表示,将对涉及高科技产品的美对俄出口许可证加以限制,受影响的是那些可能有助于俄罗斯发展军事能力的高科技产品。
However, 'we don't expect there to be an immediate change in Russian policy,' said a senior administration official.'Ultimately, we believe that [the sanctions] can affect Russia's calculus over time and give them the incentive to deescalate this situation.'
不过一位美国高级官员表示,预计俄罗斯政策不会很快发生变化。该官员称,相信随着时间的推移,制裁措施最终将对俄罗斯的想法产生影响,从而促使俄罗斯采取行动为紧张局势降温。
Despite the hedge, the U.S. didn't use its toughest sanctions tool: targeting entire economic sectors. Senior Obama administration officials didn't want Russia to forget what it has in its arsenal, however, repeatedly threatening to use the 'sectoral sanctions' should Moscow maintain its role in Ukraine, or escalate it further.
虽然美国官员不愿在制裁措施取得的实效上多谈,但美国并没有使用其最严厉的制裁工具:针对俄罗斯某些经济部门的全面制裁措施。不过,奥巴马政府的高级官员不希望俄罗斯忘记美国还有什么能够对付俄罗斯的武器,这些官员一再威胁,如果俄罗斯继续干预乌克兰局势或变本加厉,美国将对俄罗斯的部分经济领域实施制裁。
'We have at our disposal additional sanctions, very powerful sanctions that can target sectors of the Russian economy and entities within those sectors,' said one senior administration official. 'I think the deterrent value of that should not be underestimated.'
一位美国政府高级官员称,美国随时可以采取进一步的制裁,而且是强有力的制裁,目标是俄罗斯的某些经济领域以及这些领域内的实体。这位官员表示,他认为这些制裁的震慑力不应被低估。
Why would the U.S. not use its biggest weapon when admitting the steps it just took won't work?
在已采取的措施不起作用的情况下,美国为何不运用最强大的制裁措施呢?
Ms. Lee said the administration is trying to manage expectations by boasting about the effects while playing down their importance. 'Russia isn't going to immediately stop its campaign in Ukraine' based on Monday's designations, she said.
Lee称,美国政府是在通过吹嘘制裁措施的效应、同时降低这些制裁的重要性来管理外界的预期。她表示,俄罗斯不会因为美国周一宣布的制裁对象而立即停止在乌克兰的行动。
But, Ms. Lee said, designations targeting individuals and entities within an economic sector can pack as much of a punch as identifying an entire sector when the major players are placed under sanctions. As an example, she cited the designation on Monday of Igor Sechin, the head of Rosneft, one of the world's largest publicly traded energy companies.
但Lee称,在对某个经济领域重要参与者实施制裁的情况下,针对该领域个人和实体进行制裁,可以达到对该行业实施整体制裁一样的效果。她还以周一宣布的对俄罗斯国有石油公司Rosneft负责人谢钦(Igor Sechin)的制裁做为例子。Rosneft是全球规模最大的上市能源公司之一。
Though Mr. Sechin dismissed the sanctions, Western companies are now concerned about the risks of associating with him. 'How much further do they have to go to make it a sector program without calling it a sector program?' she asked. 'The strength of economic sanctions is discretion.'
虽然谢钦称制裁措施对他的影响不大,但西方公司现在以开始担心与他打交道的风险。Lee表示,这几乎已经等于是针对某个行业的制裁了,只差没有正式使用这一说法而已。她表示,经济制裁的效果就是对人们的判断力产生影响。
Steve Ganis, of counsel at Mintz Levin, said there were a number of dynamics at play, including keeping some action in the hopper if the crisis gets worse. 'It's critical for us to have room to ratchet up sanctions to respond to events on the ground,' he said.
Mintz Levin律师事务所的法律顾问加尼斯(Steve Ganis)称,目前在起作用的有多种因素,其中包括一些为应对危机加剧情况的备用行动方案。他表示,美国需拥有进一步加大制裁力度的空间以应对事态发展,这一点至关重要。
Mr. Ganis also spoke to the amount of policy work involved in establishing the contours of a sectoral sanctions program, because there are few of them from which to draw conclusions. There are practical implications to consider, such as how to handle transactions in progress and goods in transit, or how to address ownership and operations questions, he said.
加尼斯还称,建立针对俄罗斯部分经济领域制裁方案的框架需要进行大量的政策方面的工作,因为这方面可以借鉴的先例很少。他表示,也有一些现实的影响需要考虑,比如如何处理正在进行中的交易以及运输中的商品,以及如何处理受影响商品的所有权和经营问题等。
'Sanctions are a weapon that needs to be aimed,' said Mr. Ganis. 'The way the U.S. government aims them at the target companies and avoids blowback is by working through these questions so they can minimize the impact on those not targeted and maximize impact on those that are targeted.'
加尼斯称,制裁需要有准确的目标。他表示,美国政府就是通过解决上述这些问题的方式来将制裁措施瞄准目标公司,并避免由此产生副作用,这样才能尽量减小对非目标公司的影响,同时也能最大限度的打击目标公司。



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