00:04.21]but the strategies for the two major candidates are already emerging.

[00:08.10]For the presumptive Democratic Party nominee, Senator John Kerry,

[00:11.70]the challenge will be to raise questions about President

[00:11.77]Bush's leadership over the past four years,

[00:14.69]and offer a compelling reason for change.

[00:18.29]"Our campaign is about replacing doubt with

[00:23.36]hope and replacing fear with security," he announced.

[00:27.43]President Bush, on the other hand, will highlight his

[00:26.43]leadership in the aftermath of the 2001 terrorist attacks,

[00:30.21]and he will target John Kerry's liberal voting record in the U.S. Senate.

[00:35.25]"It is a choice between an America

[00:36.84]that leads the world with strength and confidence,

[00:39.75]or an America that is uncertain in the face of danger," said Mr. Bush.

[00:42.88]The economy, jobs, health care,

[00:45.37]national security and foreign policy all

[00:47.96]figure as central issues in the 2004 campaign.

[00:51.56]And both President Bush and Senator Kerry have

[00:54.37]themes and issues they would prefer to focus on,

[00:57.28]issues they believe will help them, and hurt their opponent.

[01:00.67]"Right now,

[01:06.36]I think it is clear that Republicans want the issue to be about foreign policy,

[01:11.00]national security, defense and presidential leadership," said Stuart Rothenberg,

[01:14.02]"The Democrats are more focused on things like jobs, domestic priorities,

[01:19.89]but also talking about the war [Iraq] and presidential leadership."

[01:23.67]Stuart Rothenberg and many other

[01:25.18]political analysts look for a close election in 2004,

[01:28.50]similar perhaps to the tight contest four years ago,

[01:31.52]when Mr. Bush narrowly defeated then-Vice President Al Gore.

[01:35.01]Georgetown University political expert Stephen

[01:37.57]Wayne says the first priority for both

[01:40.23]candidates is making sure

[01:42.21]their core supporters turn out and vote in November.

[01:45.74]"The election will hinge on two factors," he said.

[01:51.97]"One, how each side turns out its base of supporters, in other words,

[01:57.12]how they bring them out to vote. In general,

[02:00.82]Republicans have had a larger

[02:02.98]percentage of their people turn out to vote than the Democrats,

[02:07.34]so the Democrats are going to have to make a big effort here. "And secondly,

[02:11.62]there are about 10 percent of the population who are truly independent,

[02:16.23]who have not made a decision," added Mr. Wayne.

[02:17.92]"And both candidates will appeal to that 10 percent of the voters."

[02:23.43]It is also likely that the outcome

[02:25.59]of the election will hinge on the results in a

[02:27.50]relatively small number of so-called swing states,

[02:30.13]states that are nearly evenly divided among Democrats,

[02:32.90]Republicans and Independents.

[02:34.88]It is worth noting that U.S. presidential elections

[02:37.29]are not decided by the popular vote nationwide.

[02:40.10]Each state has a certain number of Electoral College votes,

[02:43.48]based on its population.

[02:42.48]The candidate who wins the popular vote in a given

[02:45.47]state wins all of that state's electoral votes.

[02:50.51]Two-hundred-seventy electoral votes are required to win the White House.

[02:54.29]In the 2000 election, there were a total of 16 states

[02:57.78]that President Bush either won or lost by five percentage points or less.

[03:02.10]Georgetown University Professor Stephen Wayne says these so-called battleground

[03:06.57]states are likely to be the focus of

[03:08.55]attention for both candidates this year, as well.

[03:08.63]"As we look at it today,

[03:10.82]the key states are the ones in the Midwest and in the Mid-Atlantic,

[03:16.11]beginning with Pennsylvania and going to Ohio and Illinois

[03:21.41]and Minnesota and then Wisconsin and Iowa," said Professor Wayne.

[03:25.01]"The state of Florida in the south and the Pacific Coast states - Washington,

[03:31.27]Oregon and even [traditionally Democratic] California -

[03:33.97]now that California has a Republican

[03:36.96]governor who seems to be reasonably popular."

[03:40.38]It is expected that both the president and Senator Kerry will

[03:43.76]be making numerous visits to these key states in the months ahead.

[03:45.42]In fact, the new television advertisements being

[03:48.23]run by the president's re-election committee target most of

[03:52.11]the states that are expected to be close in November.