Public opinion polls suggest the November election between

[00:04.10]President Bush and his presumed Democratic opponent,

[00:06.91]Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, will be close.

[00:10.12]Even though the election is still more than seven months away,

[00:13.03]the two candidates are engaging one another earlier and spending

[00:16.74]more money at this stage than in any recent campaign for the White House.

[00:19.12]Historically, general election campaigns

[00:21.92]for the presidency begin in early September,

[00:24.41]well after the party nominating conventions that decide

[00:27.72]the Republican and Democratic candidates for president.

[00:39.60]But this year everything seems earlier than usual.

[00:40.03]Senator John Kerry's early success in the Democratic primaries allowed

[00:44.32]him to focus on the man he will run against in November, President Bush.

[00:48.42]“If the president wants to have a debate a month

[00:50.36]on just one subject and we go around the country,

[00:53.57]I think that would be a great idea,” Sen. Kerry said. “Let's go do it.”

[00:56.16]The president has also been mentioning Senator Kerry in his speeches,

[00:59.98]focusing on the Massachusetts Democrat's long record in the Senate

[01:03.58]and what Mr. Bush calls a history of switching positions on several issues.

[01:07.64]At the same time, the president is traveling the country,

[01:10.60]touting his record on terrorism and national

[01:09.60]security and promising an improved economy,

[01:12.91]including more jobs.

[01:14.78]“And we will remain the leading economy in the world because America

[01:19.35]will remain the best place to do business in the world,” Mr. Bush said.

[01:22.99]There has also been an upsurge in television

[01:26.01]advertisements on behalf of both candidates.

[01:28.60]The president's re-election committee has started with ads

[01:31.48]emphasizing the positive aspects of the Bush record.

[01:34.76]But later ones are expected to be critical of Senator Kerry.

[01:38.47]“President Bush - steady leadership in times of change,” says one Bush ad.

[01:43.26]The Kerry campaign has far less money to run ads of its own.

[01:47.04]But political groups sympathetic to Senator Kerry

[01:49.59]and the Democratic Party have begun running ads

[01:52.47]critical of the president in an attempt to even out the playing field.

[01:56.47]“President Bush - remember the American dream.

[01:59.89]It's about hope, not fear,” says a pro-Kerry ad.

[02:01.54]Republicans complain that the ads attacking the president

[02:04.86]are illegal because they violate the new campaign finance law that

[02:08.64]prohibits political parties from coordinating with private

[02:11.62]groups on political advertising.

[02:13.93]Most political experts see this as simply the tip of the iceberg

[02:17.42]in terms of negative political attacks and advertising this year.

[02:22.24]If the election is going to be as close as the polls suggest,

[02:24.55]both parties are expected to spend a lot of money and effort

[02:27.97]urging their core supporters to get out and vote in November.

[02:31.06]“Most of our evidence suggests that negative ads

[02:39.67]which candidates run do seem to influence voters and they certainly

[02:43.95]do hold the base [of a candidate's support]

[02:45.64]and get out the base [encourage them to vote],” says Stephen Wayne,

[02:46.72]“So, if I'm right that you really want to generate the base of each party,

[02:52.12]then each side will launch pretty nasty ads against the other side.”

[02:56.52]Another challenge for both candidates will be appealing to the

[02:59.54]relatively small group of undecided or 'swing' voters who make up their

[03:03.75]minds in the final stages of a presidential campaign.

[03:06.78]Tom Defrank is the Washington Bureau Chief of the New York Daily

[03:10.27]News and a frequent guest on VOA's Issues in the News program.“They [Bush campaign] understand that and that is why it is

[03:14.48]He says U.S. presidential elections tend to be a referendum on the incumbent,

[03:19.27]a fact that the president's re-election team is well aware of.

[03:23.16]“They [Bush campaign] understand that and that is why it is

[03:25.89]important to them that Osama bin Laden get captured.

[03:28.09]That is why it is important for them

[03:29.49]for the turnover of

[03:32.01]authority in Iraq to go as scheduled on June 30,” he says.

[03:34.39]“It is important for them that the economy continues to improve

[03:37.59]because all those things will help or hurt President Bush,

[03:40.80]depending on how they sort out.”

[03:42.27]But the length of this campaign could be a problem for both candidates.

[03:45.58]A number of experts warn that a general election campaign stretching

[03:49.36]nearly eight months could turn off voters as much as engage them,

[03:53.36]making it more important than ever that the two major parties

[03:56.82]encourage their voters to get to the polls on election day.