It looked like Barack Obama might do something rash when he travelled to West Point, New York, on Wednesday to deliver the commencement address of the US Military Academy. Foreign policy thinkers in both parties have accused the president of being unwilling to provide US leadership in the world. They urge him to look to his “legacy” and to think big. The New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman recommended the Ukraine crisis as a “legacy opportunity” and even suggested a series of activist steps.

巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)最近前往纽约西点军校(见上图)，在毕业典礼上发表演讲，此举可能有些轻率。美国两党的外交政策智囊都指责奥巴马不愿意让美国在世界上发挥领导作用。他们敦促奥巴马留心自己卸任后的“遗产”，希望他高瞻远瞩。《纽约时报》(The New York Times)专栏作家托马斯•弗里德曼(Thomas Friedman)认为乌克兰危机是一个“打造遗产的机遇”，甚至提议美国应采取一系列积极举措。

This is, alas, a typically American way of looking at history. The late historian Christopher Lasch marvelled in the early 1990s at the way Bill Clinton arrived in office “already obsessed with his ‘place in the history books’ . . . as if ‘history’ were just a kind of protracted version of the publicity industry, and you could reserve a room just by phoning ahead with a little advance hype”. Mr Obama does not need to bully anyone to secure a “legacy”. Changing US foreign policy after George W Bush’s two terms is the main thing he was elected to do. He has done it.

唉，这就是美国人看待历史的典型方式。已故历史学家克里斯托夫•拉希(Christopher Lasch)在上世纪90年代初期惊奇地发现：比尔•克林顿(Bill Clinton)甫上台“就已痴迷于他‘在史书中的位置’……似乎‘历史’只是某种长期性的宣传产业，你提前打个电话，再加上一些前期炒作，就可以预定一个位置”。奥巴马不需要威逼任何人来确保“遗产”。改变乔治•W•布什(George W Bush)两届任期之后的美国外交政策是民众选举他来做的主要工作。他已经做到了。

Mr Obama’s problem is different. When he says “America must always lead on the world stage”, there is no reason to doubt his sincerity. But such leadership comes at a price, and he is disinclined to pay it. He proposed bombing Syria at a point last year when Bashar al-Assad was alleged to have used chemical weapons but then abandoned the idea in the face of voter rage. He would rather gain a reputation for indecision than make a blunder. He cited a predecessor, Dwight Eisenhower: “War is mankind’s most tragic and stupid folly; to seek or advise its deliberate provocation is a black crime against all men.” Mr Obama’s feelings on the matter may explain the uncharacteristic gracelessness with which he sometimes criticises Mr Bush.

奥巴马的问题有所不同。当他说“美国必须始终在世界舞台上占据领导地位”的时候，我们没有理由怀疑他的真心实意。但这样的领导地位是需要付出代价的，而他不愿付出这种代价。在去年叙利亚总统巴沙尔•阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)被控使用化学武器的时候，他提议对叙利亚进行轰炸，但随后因选民们不满而放弃了这一想法。他宁愿背负优柔寡断的名声也不愿犯下大错。他引用了美国前总统德怀特•艾森豪威尔(Dwight Eisenhower)的话：“战争是人类最悲惨、最愚笨的蠢行；无论是蓄意挑起战争，还是为其献计献策，这都是对全人类犯下的滔天罪行。”奥巴马在这个问题上的想法可能有助于解释他有时为什么会大失风范地批评小布什。

Whatever they think of Mr Obama more generally, Americans share his diffidence about using force. Last autumn, a majority told the Pew Center, for the first time since 1964, that their country ought to “mind its own business internationally and let other countries get along the best they can on their own”. Today, the public is opposed to taking a “firm stand” against Russian mischief in Ukraine – only 29 per cent want that, according to a March poll by Pew.

无论美国人通常怎么看待奥巴马，他们认同他在动用武力方面的退缩态度。去年秋季，皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)的调查显示，大多数美国人认为，美国应该“在国际上管好自己的事情，让其它国家自己处理自己的内部事务”，这是自1964年以来首次出现这样的情况。皮尤在今年3月的调查显示，现在公众反对美国对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰采取“强硬立场”，只有29%的人希望这么做。

Mr Obama is unpopular. His presidency is much diminished in recent months. But there was a lot of the old Mr Obama in his West Point speech, as he insisted that leadership and bellicosity are not synonyms. He has announced an end of the US Afghanistan mission by 2016 and sharp troop cuts by 2017. That would bring the size of the US army below 450,000 soldiers, the lowest since before the second world war. The goal of Wednesday’s speech was to arrive at a doctrine that would present this downscaling of responsibilities as something other than a retreat. Mr Obama did this by dividing US responsibilities into two kinds: national defence and “issues of global concern”, from counterterrorism to climate change. It is this second group of issues that really animated the president.

奥巴马的人气并不高。他的民调支持率在最近几个月大幅下降。但他在西点军校的演讲有许多地方都显得很老派，他坚称领导力和好战并非同义词。他宣布到2016年结束美国在阿富汗的行动，到2017年大幅裁军。届时美军人数将降至不足45万，为自二战爆发前以来的最低水平。他在西点军校的演讲意在让人们相信，这种责任缩减绝不是退缩。为此奥巴马将美国的责任划分成两类：保卫国家以及从反恐到气候变化等“全球关切的问题”。让奥巴马意兴浓厚的是第二类问题。

Mr Obama wants to convince Americans that the US can be confident when it acts through international institutions – including Nato, the UN, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and international courts – because it has shaped them. In turn, these institutions will give America a fairer shake if it becomes a better global citizen – if, for instance, it is “more transparent” about drone strikes. He used every rhetorical tool at his disposal to sell his new approach. He was by turns boastful (insisting the US is still what Madeleine Albright, former secretary of state, called “the indispensable nation”), patriotic (speaking of “my duty to you, and to the country we love”), politically correct (congratulating West Point on its “first all-female command team”) and idealistic (calling on America to act “on behalf of human dignity”).

奥巴马希望让美国人相信，在通过北约(Nato)、联合国、国际货币基金组织(IMF)、世界银行(World Bank)和国际法庭等国际机构采取行动时，美国可以非常自信，因为美国塑造了这些机构。相应地，如果美国成为一个更好的全球公民——比如说，如果美国在无人机空袭上“更加透明”的话——这些机构将会更公平地对待美国。他利用自己掌握的所有修辞来兜售自己的新战略。他有时夸口称，美国仍然是前国务卿马德琳•奥尔布赖特(Madeleine Albright)所称的“不可或缺的国家”，他有时打爱国牌，说到“我对你们、对我们所爱的这个国家的职责”，有时还会说些政治上正确的话，比如庆祝西点军校出了“首个女指挥官小组”，有时还会表现得理想主义，呼吁美国“为人类尊严”而奋斗。

The cadets in attendance appeared to be sitting on their hands. Mr Obama’s doctrine is squeamish. It will be uninspiring to martial minds. Where most presidents go to West Point to speak of sacrifice and honour, he promised the assembled warriors: “You will work as a team with diplomats and development experts. You will get to know allies and train partners.” International organisations can be very efficient redistributors of goods and power. Americans often distrust them for just that reason. But Mr Obama is not so far off the mark. He is proposing that the US, through skilful use of international organisations, can exercise undiminished influence over the affairs of men, at diminished cost in blood and treasure. It amounts to eating your cake and having it – an unrealistic foreign policy, and the very one Mr Obama’s voters have asked for.

出席西点军校毕业典礼的学生们似乎反应不大。奥巴马那套说词过于谨小慎微。它鼓舞不了尚武之人。历届总统多数都会到西点军校就牺牲和荣誉发表演讲，而他却向这些集合起来的战士们承诺：“你们将同外交家和发展专家协作。你们将认识盟友、训练战友。”国际组织可能是非常有效的商品和权力的再分配者。美国人通常正是因为这个原因而不信任它们。但奥巴马说得并不算太离谱。他表示，通过技巧性地利用国际组织，美国可以对人类事务施加不输于以前的影响，但会减少付出的鲜血和财产代价。这是希望鱼与熊掌兼得——这虽然是一种不现实的外交政策，但却是奥巴马的选民们所要求的外交政策。