Hedge funds and other money managers are building up short positions in the global copper market, according to U.S. data, riding on allegations of fraudulent metal-backed financing in China to amplify pressure on prices of one of the world's most heavily traded metals.

据来自美国的数据显示，对冲基金经理和其他一些投资管理机构正在全球铜市场建立空头头寸。他们认为，中国针对金属贸易融资骗贷事件的调查将加大铜价压力。铜是世界上交易量最大的金属品种之一。

These positions are likely to further weigh on the outlook for the red metal, as the effects of an official probe on metal stockpiles in the eastern Chinese port of Qingdao continue to ripple across global markets. The port's operator has confirmed that Chinese authorities are investigating allegations of fraud relating to stockpiles of metals, though the government hasn't commented publicly.

新建的空头头寸可能会进一步给铜前景带来压力，因为针对中国青岛港铜库存的官方调查仍在全球市场激起层层涟漪。青岛港的运营方已经证实，中国当局正在对涉及铜库存的骗贷事件进行调查，但政府尚未公开发表评论。

'Short' positions refer to contracts in which a commodity is borrowed and then sold with the expectation that its price will fall before the borrowed asset has to be purchased and replaced. A high level of short interest among money managers indicates increased market sentiment that an asset price is ready to fall. A 'long' position indicates the expectation that the asset will rise in value.

所谓空头头寸是指借入大宗商品然后卖出的一种合约，投资者预计这种大宗商品的价格会在所借资产必须购买和替换之前下跌。投资管理机构做空的兴趣浓厚往往表明市场越来越认为某种资产的价格即将下跌。而做多则意味着市场预计某种资产将升值。

Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued Friday showed hedge funds, institutional investors and other large speculators increased their short positions in New York copper futures and options in the week ending Tuesday to 29,063 contracts, compared with 25,734 a week earlier and 21,802 three weeks ago. The CFTC publishes such data on a weekly basis.

美国商品期货交易委员会(Commodity Futures Trading Commission，简称CFTC)上周五发布的数据表明，在截至上周二的当周，对冲基金、机构投资者和其他大型投机者在纽约市场持有的铜期货和铜期权空头头寸合约增加至29,063份，而此前一周为25,734份，三周前为21,802份。CFTC每周都会公布这类数据。

This is the first time in six weeks that the combined positions show a net short, meaning short positions now outnumber longs.

这是六周以来，总体头寸首次出现净空头状态，这意味着空头头寸的数量目前超过多头头寸。

The rise extends a build-up of copper shorts since early June, which had snapped four straight weeks of decline. Long positions have fallen to 28,750 contracts in the latest CFTC report compared with 42,800 in late May.

空头持仓延续了6月初以来的上升势头。而在6月初之前的四周空头合约数量曾连续四周下降。据CFTC最新公布的报告，多头合约数量降至28,750份，5月底为42,800份。

'There has been an unnatural buyer of copper, which is the bonded warehouses [in China] doing carry trades. Now, a good chunk of [China's copper imports] will return to end-use which will likely drive down the price sharply,' a New York-based hedge fund manager said in an e-mail to The Wall Street Journal.

一名驻纽约的对冲基金经理在写给《华尔街日报》的邮件中称，市场上存在一个非正常的铜买家，这是中国的保税仓库在进行套利交易；现在中国很大一部分进口铜将重回终端市场，可能会迫使铜价大幅下跌。

Analysts say one-third or more of Chinese copper imports is believed to be used as collateral for loans from Chinese lenders and some foreign banks. There's so far been no evidence of a mass sell-off among commodity owners as a result of the Qingdao probe, but traders and analysts say a liquidation of copper stocks may pick up speed if the probe widens.

分析师们称，外界认为中国的进口铜有三分之一或以上用于抵押品，从国内银行以及部分外资银行获得贷款。到目前为止还没有证据显示青岛港调查导致铜遭大幅抛售，但交易员和分析师们称，如果调查进一步扩大，铜库存的变现速度可能会加快。

'The use of copper for collateral was used effectively as an arbitrage tool but it was false demand. It makes perfect sense that international investors would short copper globally now,' said Anthony Skriba, a consulting manager with Shanghai-based investment advisers Z-Ben Advisors.

总部位于上海的投资咨询公司Z-Ben Advisors的咨询经理Anthony Skriba称，将铜作为抵押品获得贷款被广泛地用于套利，由此产生了假需求，现在海外投资者会在全球市场做空铜完全是在情理之中的。

The short positions are more likely being amassed outside China because the prime-brokerage market on the mainland isn't as well developed, Mr. Skriba said. Prime brokerage refers to the suite of financial services offered by investment banks and securities firms to hedge funds and other professional investors, including finding counter-parties for short trades.

Skriba说，由于国内机构经纪市场还没有得到很好的发展，这些空头持仓更有可能是在海外市场。机构经纪是指投行和证券公司向对冲基金和其他专业投资者提供的一整套金融服务，包括寻找做空交易的对手方等。

Hedge funds are likely magnifying rather than creating the bearish momentum on the copper market. Prices of the metal had already come down this year as China's economy slowed, amid a forecast 9% rise over the next two years in global supplies of copper concentrate, the metal's raw material, coming mostly from Chile and Africa. London Metal Exchange copper on Friday reached $6,765 a ton, down about 8% since the start of the year.

对冲基金与其说可能导致了铜市场的下跌趋势，不如说是可能放大了该市场的跌势。由于中国经济放缓，加上预计未来两年全球铜精矿供应将增加9%（主要来自智利和非洲），铜价自今年以来已出现了下跌。伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜价上周五报每吨6,765美元，自年初以来已累计下跌8%左右。

Goldman Sachs forecast that copper prices are likely to fall to $6,200 a ton by the end of 2014. 'Additionally, the Qingdao situation may lead to a rapid unwind in financing deals resulting in a risk that the target forecast is reached earlier than the end of the year,' the bank said in a report.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)预计，到2014年底，铜价可能会跌至每吨6,200美元。该行在一份报告中称，另外，青岛港的情况可能会令融资交易被迅速平仓，从而导致铜价在年底之前就跌至这一目标位。

Traders say they already expect copper and iron ore imports to China to decline in coming months, in part due to customs officials tightening checks on incoming shipments.

交易员们表示，他们原本就预计未来几个月中国铜和铁矿石进口量将下降，部分原因是海关工作人员加强了对即将运达的铜和铁矿石的检查力度。

'The Qingdao probe has significantly dented confidence across the industry. Banks will likely further cut lending and financing to the metals and mining industry which is already facing severe liquidity strain,' Bernstein Research analyst Vanessa Lau said.

Bernstein Research的分析师Vanessa Lau表示，青岛港的调查严重打击了整个行业的信心，银行业可能会进一步削减对金属和采矿行业的贷款和融资，而这一行业原本就已面临严重的流动性问题。

Not all money managers agree with the short-copper positions, as some believe recovering demand from the U.S. could offset the sector's gloomy outlook. 'It's a cloudy picture but I'd be surprised if copper falls below $6,400 in the short term, barring another macroeconomic shock,' said James Marks, head of global metals at Xconnect Trading Ltd. in London.

不过，并不是所有资金经理都赞成作空铜，一些人认为美国需求复苏可能会抵消铜行业的黯淡情景。Xconnect Trading Ltd.驻伦敦的全球金属负责人马克斯(James Marks)表示，虽然铜市场前景黯淡，但除非出现又一个宏观经济冲击因素，否则他认为铜价短期内不会跌破每吨6,400元。

Managed money--the CFTC term for hedge funds and institutional investors--had also built up short positions on copper in February and March. They won the bets when copper prices fell by 7% in March and closed out these positions, leading to a resurgence of long positions in late April, according to CFTC data.

对冲基金和机构投资者在2月份和3月份也建立了铜空头头寸。CFTC的数据显示，铜价在3月份下跌了7%，这些投资者在获利后结清了空头头寸，导致4月底的多头头寸反弹。