China announces official second-quarter GDP on Tuesday, a figure widely expected to reflect official guarantees of continued strong growth. But data from the China Beige Book-a private survey of 2,200 firms nationwide-suggest that the Chinese economy isn't expanding as Beijing's numbers would imply. Actually, the second quarter saw another broad-based slowdown.

中国将在周三发布官方第二季度国内生产总值(GDP)数据，普遍的预期是该数据将证实官方对经济保持强劲增长势头的判断。然而根据中国黄皮书(China Beige Book)――对全国2,200家企业进行的一项民间调查显示，中国经济并非如政府公布的数字所暗示的那样扩张。实际上，第二季度中国经济再一次出现大面积放缓。

Yet it is hardly news that GDP isn't a reliable gauge of growth or credit conditions across China's economy. The real news is that this slowdown may be the beginning of something much more important: weakness, perhaps of unprecedented degree, in both capital expenditure and loan demand.

但GDP不是衡量中国经济增速或整体信贷情况的可靠指标早已不是什么新闻。真正的新闻是，此次放缓可能是一些重要得多的问题的开端，那就是资本开支和贷款需求出现（或许是空前的）疲软。

Economic analysts have for years called for China to curb investment-led growth. Now that process may be beginning-and it won't be painless.

经济分析人士多年来呼吁中国转变以投资为主的经济增长模式。如今这一转变或许正在开始，而且不会毫无痛苦。

A year ago, the weakening of the economy was due primarily to a tightening of credit. In early 2013-while many analysts remained glued to the government's 'total social finance' credit measure-our research data revealed that companies had escalating difficulties in accessing credit, a trend that began as early as the fourth quarter of 2012.

一年前中国经济走软主要是由于信贷吃紧。2013年初，当许多分析人士仍坚信“社会融资总额”这一信贷指标时，我们的调查数据显示，早从2012年第四季度开始，企业取得信贷的难度就在持续攀升。

A few months later, Beijing's central bank became more forceful in its policy response, declining to feed the credit beast its usual meal of loan rollovers. That led to spikes in interbank lending rates, including the June 2013 credit crunch.

几个月后，中国央行的政策回应更加强硬，拒绝再向大举借贷的企业提供债务展期。这导致银行间拆借利率大幅攀升，包括2013年6月发生的信贷紧缩冲击。

Our survey data this quarter reflect a very different dynamic: broad-based falls in capital expenditure growth and a related further fall in loan demand. Back in the second quarter of 2013, loan demand remained high but many couldn't access credit, driving those firms to more expensive shadow lenders. But this quarter firms simply didn't want the credit. Loan demand hit the lowest level since our survey began in the first quarter of 2012.

我们本季度的调查数据反映出大相径庭的状况：资本开支增幅普遍回落，贷款需求也相应地进一步下降。而在2013年第二季度，贷款需求依然很高，但很多企业难以获得信贷，不得不转向成本更高的影子贷款机构。然而在本季度，企业并不想获得贷款。贷款需求跌至2012年第一季度我们开始这一调查以来的最低水平。

The lack of demand can't be seen in interest rates on bank loans, which rose a bit this quarter and often reflect institutional relationships as much as real changes in market demand. But it is manifest in rates charged by non-bank financials, the so-called shadow lenders. Shadow bank rates plunged to below those charged by the banks, for the first time at the national level.

贷款需求不旺并未体现在银行的贷款利率上，该利率除反映市场需求的真实变化外，还通常反映出机构之间的关系，本季度银行贷款利率略有上升。不过非银行金融机构（即所谓的影子贷款机构）收取的利率则明显反映出市场变化。影子银行利率首次在全国范围内低于银行的贷款利率水平。

Firms watching the economic slowdown didn't want to spend. At the national level, capital-expenditure growth slowed broadly this quarter, as did firms' expectations for future spending. Fewer firms increased investment than at any time since our survey began.

目睹经济放缓迹象的企业没有开支意愿。本季度全国资本开支增幅大幅回落，企业对未来开支的预期也同样放缓。增加投资的公司数量处于我们开始这个调查以来的最低水平。

The worst slowdown was in mining, where the share of firms increasing their investment spending collapsed by almost 30%. Services firms followed with a 20% drop, and manufacturers dropped nearly 20% despite a relatively solid quarter of growth. The only sector to increase investment slightly was real estate and construction, but even there the on-year trend showed weakness. The proportion of real-estate firms expecting higher investment next quarter also dropped, while more firms said they expect to cut spending.

放缓最严重的是矿业，增加投资开支的公司占比下降了近30%。服务公司紧随其后，下降20%，制造也亦减少了近20%，尽管本季度增长相对强劲。唯一略微增加投资的是房地产和建筑行业，但即使是这个行业，同比趋势也显示出疲弱迹象。预计下一季度增加投资的房地产公司比例也有所下降，更多的公司表示，它们预计将削减开支。

Capital expenditure in retail is best reflected by retailers' willingness to open or close stores. In China's central region, including megacity Chongqing and Sichuan province, outlet expansion fell off a cliff. Just 22% of firms increased their number of outlets-a near 50% drop from the first quarter-while 18% are cutting stores, more than twice as many as last quarter.

最能够反映出零售业资本支出状况的指标是零售商开店或闭店的意愿。在包括重庆和四川在内的中国中部地区，门店扩张大幅下滑。只有22%的公司增加了门店数量，较第一季度下滑近50%；有18%的公司减少了门店数量，比例是上个季度的两倍。

There is a chicken-or-egg problem with capital expenditure and the labor market, but the outcome is clear: The labor market is seeing depressed growth in hiring and wages.

资本支出与就业市场之间的关系并非一目了然，就像争论先有鸡还是先有蛋的问题，但资本支出下滑带来的结果很明显：就业市场的招聘和工资增长都有所减弱。

If official data are at all accurate, Chinese capital expenditure is the weakest it has been in more than a decade-and evidence suggests that this investment downshift may be difficult to reverse. A year ago, tighter credit constrained growth and the central bank had the option of loosening again. This quarter, lower non-bank interest rates failed to support investment.

如果官方数据是准确的，那么中国的资本支出处于10多年来的最疲弱水平，而有迹象显示这轮投资降温可能难以逆转。一年前，收紧的信贷限制了经济增长，央行可以选择重新放宽信贷。而这个季度，非银行金融机构利率的降低未能支撑投资。

There are considerable advantages to this dynamic, as China badly needs investment to decline and consumption to grow. But these numbers suggest that firms are borrowing and spending less, not ratcheting up in response to anticipated or actual government stimulus.

在中国急需减少对投资的依赖、更多地依赖消费之际，这一形势发展有着相当大的好处。但这些数据表明，企业借贷和支出都在减少，并没有因预期的或实际的政府刺激措施而增加。

If so, this isn't a slowdown with Chinese characteristics, as some have argued. It is the opposite: a normal slowdown. That bodes well for China's long-term fortunes but also suggests that slowing investment will produce a much bumpier ride than many have hoped.

如果是这样，这就并非像一些人所说的是具有中国特色的经济增长放缓。恰恰相反，这是一场普通的放缓。这将有利于中国长期前景，但也意味着由于投资不断放缓，未来的道路将比很多人预期的更为坎坷。