China's three major state airlines will likely post weak first-half results next month, stung by the depreciating yuan and despite steady air traffic growth in the country.

尽管中国航空客流稳步增长，但三大国有航空公司即将于下个月公布的上半年业绩可能比较疲软，原因是人民币正在贬值。

A weak Chinese currency hits the state airlines' bottom lines because much of the debt they take on to finance aircraft purchases is denominated in dollars, so their debts become costlier as the yuan declines in value against the dollar. The airlines also have dollar-denominated aircraft lease and jet-fuel purchase obligations.

国有航空公司为购买飞机而借入的债务大多以美元计价，因而在人民币兑美元贬值时，债务偿还成本将上升；有鉴于此，人民币的走软将削弱航空公司的利润。此外，航空公司租赁飞机和购买飞机燃料的负债也都以美元计价。

China Southern Airlines Co., the nation's biggest carrier by fleet size, warned that it expects to post a first-half net loss ranging from 900 million yuan to 1.1 billion yuan ($145 million to $177.2 million) because of foreign-exchange losses due to the Chinese currency's weakness. It posted a first-half net profit of 302 million yuan a year earlier. The carrier uses Chinese accounting standards.

机队规模最大的中国南方航空股份有限公司(China Southern Airlines Co., 简称：南方航空)警告称，预计上半年净亏损将在人民币9亿元-11亿元（合1.45亿-1.772亿美元）之间，理由是人民币走软造成汇兑损失。去年上半年，该公司实现净利润人民币3.02亿元。南方航空使用的是中国会计标准。

As of the end of 2013, China Southern's net debt totaled 104.3 billion yuan, of which more than 80% was dominated in dollars.

截至2013年年底，南方航空净负债总额为人民币1,043亿元，其中80%以美元计价。

The yuan fell as much as 3.4% against the dollar in the first four months of this year, after several years of consistently strengthening as the government moved to depreciate the currency. Depreciation of the yuan against the dollar narrowed to 2.5% in the first half.

人民币兑美元经历数年的持续走强后，随着中国政府着手推动人民币贬值，今年1-4月份人民币兑美元跌幅达到3.4%，整个上半年跌幅为2.5%。

Figures released in April showed China's 'Big Three' state carriers were already reporting significantly weaker first-quarter results because of the yuan's 2.7% slide against the dollar during the quarter. Air China's first-quarter net profit plummeted 63% to 92.7 million yuan, compared with 249 million yuan in the year-earlier period. China Southern's state rivals-Air China Ltd. and China Eastern Airlines Corp.-meanwhile, posted a combined net loss of 511 million yuan during the period.

4月份公布的数据显示，受第一季度人民币兑美元下跌2.7%影响，中国三大国有航空公司当季利润出现显著下降。中国国际航空公司(Air China，简称：中国国航)第一季度 利润大幅下降63%至人民币9,270万元，上年同期利润为人民币2.49亿元。与此同时，当季南方航空和中国东方航空股份有限公司(China Eastern Airlines Corp., 简称：东方航空)第一季度合计 亏损达人民币5.11亿元。

Air China said its interest-bearing debt totaled 111.6 billion yuan in 2013, with more than 70% denominated in dollars. China Eastern's total liabilities were 111.49 billion in 2013; the airline didn't break out its foreign debt position in its 2013 annual report.

中国国航公布，2013年有息债务总额为人民币1,116元，其中超过70%以美元计价。东方航空2013年债务总规模为人民币1,114.9亿元，该公司未在2013年年报中提供有关外币债务敞口的分类信息。

Barclays Research expects Air China and China Eastern to make similar profit warnings due to foreign-exchange losses ahead of their earnings releases scheduled for late August. The brokerage firm estimates a foreign-exchange loss of 1.6 billion yuan for China Southern in the first half, compared with a foreign-exchange gain of 1.5 billion yuan the previous year, when the Chinese currency was strengthening.

Barclays Research预计，受汇兑损失影响，中国国航和东方航空将在8月末公布业绩前发布类似的盈利预警。这家证券经纪公司预计，今年上半年南方航空将出现人民币16亿元的汇兑损失。相比之下，去年因人民币走强，南方航空实现了人民币15亿元的汇兑收益。

To be sure, these foreign-exchange losses are mostly noncash, and they don't pose significant medium-term impact if the yuan's decline stabilizes near current levels, say analysts.

分析师们称，这些汇兑损失大多是非现金的，如果人民币的跌势在当前水平附近企稳，这些汇兑损失在中期就不会造成太大影响。

The weak net results therefore mask the underlying strength in China Southern's first-half performance, Barclays said in a note. It added that China Southern would have been profitable on an operating level if the currency impact was excluded.

巴克莱在一份报告中称，这样一来，南方航空的净亏损会掩盖住该公司上半年主营业务的强劲表现。该报告还称，如果不考虑汇率的影响，南方航空在经营层面应该已经盈利。

Kelvin Lau, an analyst at Daiwa Securities, said China Southern's profit warning came as no surprise to a market familiar with the weak yuan. 'We expect passenger yield improvements to help drive core profitability for the big three state airlines for 2014, though their bottom line would likely be weighed by exchange losses,' he said.

大和证券(Daiwa Securities)分析师刘健恒(Kelvin Lau)称，对于熟悉了人民币颓势的市场来说，南方航空发布的盈利预警并不令人意外。他说，预计乘客收益率的改善将有助于提高这三大国有航空公司2014年的核心利润率，但汇兑损失将可能对这些公司的利润构成拖累。

The nation's air travel boom has helped boost core earnings at China's biggest airlines and signaled that the nation's recent slowdown hasn't weighed on consumer sentiment as much as some may have feared. In the first six months of this year, China Southern, for example, carried 47.39 million passengers, up 8.2% from a year earlier. Demand was particularly strong in outbound air travel, with international passenger revenue up 16% during the period, as China Southern seeks to expand its overseas reach.

中国航空旅行市场的繁荣已帮助提振了中国最大航空公司的核心利润，也表明最近中国经济增速放缓对消费者情绪的影响并不像有些人担心的那样严重。例如，今年前六个月，南方航空运送乘客4,739万人次，同比增长8.2%。出境航空旅行需求尤为强劲。在南方航空寻求扩大海外业务之际，该公司上半年的国际客运收入增长了16%。