The climate may not be as sensitive to carbon dioxide as previously believed.
气候对二氧化碳的敏感性可能低于先前的预期。
CLIMATE science is famously complicated, but one useful number to keep in mind is "climatesensitivity". This measures the amount of warming that can eventually be expected to follow adoubling in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. The Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change, in its most recent summary of the science behind its predictions, published in2007, estimated that, in present conditions, a doubling of CO2 would cause warming of about3°C, with uncertainty of about a degree and a half in either direction. But it also says there is asmall probability that the true number is much higher. Some recent studies have suggestedthat it could be as high as 10°C.
If that were true, disaster beckons. But a paper published in this week's Science, by AndreasSchmittner of Oregon State University, suggests it is not. In Dr Schmittner's analysis, theclimate is less sensitive to carbon dioxide than was feared.
Existing studies of climate sensitivity mostly rely on data gathered from weather stations,which go back to roughly 1850. Dr Schmittner takes a different approach. His data come fromthe peak of the most recent ice age, between 19,000 and 23,000 years ago. His group is notthe first to use such data (ice cores, fossils, marine sediments and the like) to probe theclimate's sensitivity to carbon dioxide. But their paper is the most thorough. Previousattempts had considered only small regions of the globe. He has compiled enough informationto make a credible stab at recreating the climate of the entire planet.
The result offers that rarest of things in climate science-a bit of good news. The group's mostlikely figure for climate sensitivity is 2.3°C, which is more than half a degree lower than theconsensus figure, with a 66% probability that it lies between 1.7° and 2.6°C. Moreimportantly, these results suggest an upper limit for climate sensitivity of around 3.2°C.
Before you take the SUV out for a celebratory spin, though, it is worth bearing in mind thatthis is only one study, and, like all such, it has its flaws. The computer model used is of onlymiddling sophistication, Dr Schmittner admits. That may be one reason for the narrow rangeof his team's results. And although the study's geographical coverage is the mostcomprehensive so far for work of this type, there are still blank areas-notably in Australia,Central Asia, South America and the northern Pacific Ocean. Moreover, some sceptics complainabout the way ancient data of this type were used to construct a different but related piece ofclimate science: the so-called hockey-stick model, which suggests that temperatures have risensuddenly since the beginning of the industrial revolution. It will be interesting to see if suchsceptics are willing to be equally sceptical about ancient data when they support their point ofview.