法国经济The performance gap绩效差距The French government seems to realise at last thaturgent action is needed to restore the country’scompetitiveness法国政府终觉悟，恢复国家竞争力迫在眉睫
THE end of the early shift, and workers at the Peugeot car factory at Aulnay-sous-Bois, nearParis, are streaming out through the turnstiles. The anger is raw; the disappointmentcrushing. In July, when the company announced that the plant, which employs 3,000 workers,was to close, President Francois Hollande loudly branded the decision “unacceptable”. Twomonths and an official report later, his government has now accepted its fate. “Hollande saidthat he would look after us,” says Samir Lasri, who has worked on the production line for 12years: “Now we regret voting for him.”
The decision by Peugeot-PSA, a loss-making carmaker, to shut its factory at Aulnay, the firstclosure of a French car plant for 20 years, and to shed 8,000 jobs across the country has rockedFrance. It has become an emblem both of the country’s competitiveness problem and of thenew Socialist government’s relative powerlessness, despite its promises, to stop private-sectorrestructuring. Tough as it is for the workers concerned, the planned closure may have had atleast one beneficial effect: to jolt the country into recognising that France is losingcompetitiveness and that the government needs to do something about it.
During the presidential election campaign earlier this year, competitiveness scarcelyfeatured—either on the right or the left. Once elected, Mr Hollande gave Arnaud Montebourg,who wrote a best-seller calling for “deglobalisation”, a ministerial job designed to stop industrialclosures. Mr Montebourg has duly toured the country promising the impossible.
This autumn, however, as factory closures mount, a creeping sense of reality seems to besetting in. Mr Hollande may still be bent on his new 75% top tax rate, yet on other mattersthe tone has changed. Not only has the Aulnay closure been accepted, but Mr Hollande hastalked of “painful” efforts ahead. He warned about 10 billion ($13 billion) of spending cuts, aswell as 20 billion of tax increases, in the 2013 budget. Above all, he called for a “reform of thelabour market”—traditionally a taboo for the left.
Mr Montebourg may still denounce the “greed of the financial system”, but other ministers,notably Pierre Moscovici, the finance minister, and Michel Sapin, the labour minister, soundmore reasonable. “We want to be sensibly pro-business,” says Mr Moscovici. “We are veryconscious that our economy won’t perform without our companies.” Advisers recognise thatlabour costs too much and that the level of public spending—at 56% of GDP the second-highestin the European Union—is a problem for France.
If there is a new mood, it is partly because of the stagnating economy, and partly becausebusiness chiefs have been pressing ministers to stop bashing them. France still has plenty ofcompetitive industrial firms. This summer, Mr Hollande spent three hours visiting a researchfacility near Paris belonging to Valeo, a successful high-tech car-components supplier with 10.9billion in annual sales.
How far the new realism will translate into bold decisions, however, is another matter. Oneimmediate test will be the 2013 budget, due on September 28th. The French now face theshock of cuts. Mr Moscovici insists that, however difficult, France’s promise to reduce its budgetdeficit to 3% by 2013 will be respected.
Equally hard will be a test of the new team’s resolve to improve competitiveness. LouisGallois, a former businessman, is due to produce a report next month. He is likely to argue fora “competitiveness shock”, including the transfer of a chunk of payroll charges to other formsof taxation, such as green taxes or the contribution sociale generalisee(CSG), which is leviedon not only the payroll but financial returns, pensions and unemployment benefit.
Most critical of all, Mr Hollande has given union leaders and bosses until December to negotiatelabour-market changes. On the table are various options, including making it possible for firmsto reduce hours and salaries in a downturn against a guarantee of job security, along the linesintroduced by Gerhard Schrader in Germany in 2003. The CFDT union’s incoming leader,Laurent Berger, also accepts the case for more suppleness in the labour market.
All of which is at least encouraging. Yet it is one thing to recognise a problem, and quiteanother to do something about it. Much will depend on the attitude of union leaders, who donot enjoy a reputation for co-operation and compromise. But in the end, it will come down toMr Hollande’s resolve. He promises to pass a labour-reform law anyway, even if no deal isreached. His Socialist Party controls power at all levels across France; he is at the start of a five-year term; and his popularity is already dropping fast. If he cannot do what is needed thisautumn, it is unlikely that he ever will.
